2022 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[SFLcane]

Moving WNW into a weakness but trough is lifting away…

[AutoPenalti]

Moving WNW into a weakness but trough is lifting away…

https://i.postimg.cc/L8H2yc53/gfs.png

My tidbits is behind…

[SFLcane]

Lol now that is what i call a recurve. Up up and away

[AutoPenalti]

Wow that's quite the recurve.

[Hurricaneman]

Wow that's quite the recurve.

https://i.imgur.com/NyORFB6.gif

The thing is that trough is beyond day 10 so it could be in a different position than shown here or may not even exist but the main thing is development is in the 5 day window so it’s something to watch

[Category5Kaiju]

How common is it for strong MDR systems to recurve like at a 90 degree angle?

[AutoPenalti]

Something to watch in later runs (if it even shows up then) is the WSW movement after going over the Cabo Verde Islands...

[LarryWx]

The 12Z Euro is active in the MDR (this is at 168). Implications?

[aspen]

The 12Z Euro is active in the MDR (this is at 168). Implications?

https://i.imgur.com/pWviL23.png

The first wave is the 0/20 MDR AOI. Delayed development until 40-50W or later seems possible.

[Spacecoast]

The 12Z Euro is active in the MDR (this is at 168). Implications?

https://i.imgur.com/pWviL23.png

The first wave is the 0/20 MDR AOI. Delayed development until 40-50W or later seems possible.

GEFS 12z shows this (in red):

[LarryWx]

Here we go folks from 12Z Euro at 240 fwiw:

[SFLcane]

[AutoPenalti]

Thought I was looking at the Irma model thread for a second...

I can't believe I spent a whole hour scanning through 500 pages of models...

[SFLcane]

Here we go folks from 12Z Euro at 240 fwiw:

https://i.imgur.com/7zpjqCl.png

But?

[cycloneye]

There is a thread for the Wave emerging Africa so post the runs there.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 8#p2981998

[LarryWx]

The TS at the 240 12Z Euro near 40W has near unanimous support now from the models including UK to emerge from Africa at 144.

[sma10]

Here we go folks from 12Z Euro at 240 fwiw:

https://i.imgur.com/7zpjqCl.png

But?

https://i.postimg.cc/y8Z7ZpCK/ecm2.png

Yeah .. not sure that trough would pick them up. But 10 days away, so just fluff really

[skyline385]

There is a thread for the Wave emerging Africa so post the runs there.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 8#p2981998

This is just a suggestion but could we possibly keep this as the thread for all model runs and leave those threads only for discussions. I don’t know about the rest of the folks here but i have found myself confused a lot in the last few weeks about where a model run goes particularly because so many of the waves don’t even have an invest assigned. It also fragments discussions up a lot imo. Maybe we can setup a vote or something on this and see if others feel the same way?


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[tolakram]

There is a thread for the Wave emerging Africa so post the runs there.

https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopi ... 8#p2981998

This is just a suggestion but could we possibly keep this as the thread for all model runs and leave those threads only for discussions. I don’t know about the rest of the folks here but i have found myself confused a lot in the last few weeks about where a model run goes particularly because so many of the waves don’t even have an invest assigned. It also fragments discussions up a lot imo. Maybe we can setup a vote or something on this and see if others feel the same way?


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No, we value grouping discussions of specific features so they are easy to find in the archive. Having to dig through the globals thread for a season is near impossible. Once a system has its own thread all model runs talking about that system go there. It doesn't have to be perfect and some years are more confusing than others.

[Emmett_Brown]

Slightly off topic, but 2019 was quite slow during August before Dorian. The archived Dorian model thread https://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=89&t=120454 is an interesting read... it was late August, and conditions were similarly quiet, and models similarly inconsistent. Just shows things can change quickly.