WPAC: TOKAGE - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 210600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 210600.
WARNING VALID 220600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1002 HPA AT 22N 151E ALMOST STATIONARY.

Mean while 97W is located at

20220821.1240.himawari-8.ir.97W.INVEST.20kts.1006mb.28.4N.155.6E.100pc.jpg

So it's not 97W, unless JTWC magically relocates to this

[Hayabusa]

There's support from ensembles and operational

[Nancy Smar]

TPPN12 PGTW 211537

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (E OF IWO TO)
B. 21/1500Z
C. 22.12N
D. 151.79E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30WRAP ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

ABRAHAM

[Subtrop]

TPPN12 PGTW 211537
A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 99W (E OF IWO TO)
B. 21/1500Z
C. 22.12N
D. 151.79E
E. FIVE/HMWRI8
F. T1.0/1.0/INIT OBS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .30WRAP ON THE LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.

ABRAHAM

[Hayabusa]

Here is the WPAC thread, a TD by JMA since 0600Z

[Nancy Smar]

99W INVEST 220821 1200 22.6N 151.1E WPAC 20 1003

[Hayabusa]

TD b
Issued at 2022/08/21 22:20 UTC
Analysis at 08/21 21 UTC
Grade TD
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N22°50′ (22.8°)
E151°05′ (151.1°)
Direction and speed of movement NE Slow
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
Forecast for 08/22 21 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N27°40′ (27.7°)
E150°00′ (150.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 150 km (80 NM)
Forecast for 08/23 18 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N32°20′ (32.3°)
E148°35′ (148.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 1000 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
Forecast for 08/24 18 UTC
Grade TS
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N37°10′ (37.2°)
E150°20′ (150.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NNE 25 km/h (13 kt)
Central pressure 998 hPa
Maximum sustained wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 370 km (200 NM)
Forecast for 08/25 18 UTC
Grade LOW
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N43°40′ (43.7°)
E159°10′ (159.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NE 45 km/h (23 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 520 km (280 NM)

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 212300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/212300Z-220600ZAUG2022//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211951ZAUG2022//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
(1) AT 21AUG22 1800Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 10W (TEN) WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 125.7E, APPROXIMATELY 330 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF SUBIC BAY, PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER TH PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 212100) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 23.3N 151.4E APPROXIMATELY 555 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF IWO TO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 211909Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, PARTLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH ITS MAIN CONVECTION BEING SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE PARTLY EXPOSED LLCC FEATURE IN THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) SHEAR OFFSET BY MODERATE EQUATORWARD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (28-30C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003MB.

[Hayabusa]

After Trases. Another even more rare naming by JMA, two named storms on intermediate 0300.

WTPQ51 RJTD 220300
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TS 2210 TOKAGE (2210) UPGRADED FROM TD
ANALYSIS
PSTN 220300UTC 24.5N 151.6E FAIR
MOVE N 10KT
PRES 1002HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
30KT 210NM EAST 150NM WEST
FORECAST
12HF 221500UTC 26.6N 150.4E 35NM 70%
MOVE NNW 12KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
24HF 230300UTC 29.1N 149.5E 50NM 70%
MOVE NNW 13KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
45HF 240000UTC 33.8N 148.4E 130NM 70%
MOVE N 14KT
PRES 1000HPA
MXWD 035KT
GUST 050KT
69HF 250000UTC 39.0N 151.2E 230NM 70%
MOVE NNE 14KT
PRES 998HPA
MXWD 040KT
GUST 060KT
93HF 260000UTC 46.2N 163.2E 360NM 70% EXTRATROPICAL LOW =

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS makes this a 983mb typhoon as it recurves east of Japan but I'm not sure about that

[Hayabusa]

11W TOKAGE 220822 0600 24.9N 151.7E WPAC 40 998

[ElectricStorm]

11W TOKAGE 220822 1800 27.2N 151.3E WPAC 55 996

[Yellow Evan]

0z GFS makes this a 983mb typhoon as it recurves east of Japan but I'm not sure about that

Looks likely atp given the interaction with the RER of the jet streak.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPQ24 KNES 221825
TCSWNP

A. 11W (TOKAGE)

B. 22/1730Z

C. 27.2N

D. 151.4E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T3.5/3.5

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...10/10 BANDING RESULTS IN A DT OF 3.5. THE MET IS 2.5 BASED
ON A 24 HR RAPID DEVELOPING TREND. THE PT IS 3.0. THE FT IS BASED ON
THE 6 HOUR AVERAGE DT WHICH JUSTIFIES BREAKING THE CONTRAINTS LIMITING
T NUMBER TO 2.5 24 HRS AFTER INITIAL T NUMBER AT THIS TIME.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GATLING

[ElectricStorm]

11W TOKAGE 220823 0000 28.5N 150.5E WPAC 60 987

[Hayabusa]

Eye

[Hayabusa]

11W TOKAGE 220823 1200 31.5N 149.1E WPAC 75 974

[Hayabusa]

11W TOKAGE 220823 1200 31.5N 149.1E WPAC 75 974

11W TOKAGE 220823 1200 31.6N 149.0E WPAC 80 971

[Kingarabian]

Nice. Finally!

[aspen]

Looks like the WPac finally remembered how to WPac. Now let’s see if the Atlantic ever wakes up.