Texas Summer 2022

[bubba hotep]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0828
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
539 PM EDT Sun Aug 21 2022

Areas affected...Parts of Permian Basin, Big Country & Edwards
Plateau of West Texas...

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 212140Z - 220100Z

SUMMARY...Slow/Stationary Cells with capability of 2"/hr rates
pose localized totals up to 4" and possible flash flooding over
the next few hours.

DISCUSSION...Goes-E and Regional RADAR mosaic denote a line of
broken slow moving/stationary cells from Kent county to Irion to W
Crocket county along leading edge convergence band within the
southeast quadrant of deeply stacked tropical wave currently
located near KLLN. Inner band of the circulation is starting to
shift east-southeast with favorable mid to upper level flow
orientation to develop new cells as well. The outer band of cells
are back-building and remaining stationary due to approaching
mid-level support but also reside within a narrow north-south
oriented band of enhanced deep layer moisture. Instability that
had built up to 2000-2500 J/kg is being tapped for strong updrafts
with solid isallobaric inflow to support efficient rainfall
production, with some cores reaching up to 2"/hr rates. Given the
upstream wave is slow to approach, a hour or so more of these
rates will allow for small spots of 4" totals and possibly induce
localized flash flooding conditions. Additionally, as the
shortwave energy slips southeast, this will also support the cells
on the inner band to slow and pivot with a similar potential for
excessive rain associated with a subtle heavy rainfall signature
SHaRS event.

Localized flash flooding will be possible given FFG values in some
locations from King to Garza to Glasscock county are in the
1.5-2"/hr and <3"/3hr range, but similar areas just west into the
Big Country are more supportive of these rates. Still given the
slow motions, ample moisture and instability...localized flash
flooding is considered possible over the next few hours, and more
likely northward closer to better moisture pooling/forcing near
the low.

Gallina

ATTN...WFO...LUB...MAF...SJT...

ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...WGRFC...NWC...

[Cpv17]

18z 3k NAM with over a foot of rain in eastern portions of DFW

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2022082118/060/qpf_acc.us_sc.png

That’s awesome!! That probably would cause some flooding though but I don’t think it would be that bad considering how dry it’s been but then again I really don’t know how the DFW area is when it comes to big rains. I know the Houston area it’ll flood from just a few inches in certain spots.

[bubba hotep]

Remember the day after day forecast of 5-7" for the DFW area? Hopefully, the WPC forecast for Central and South Texas stands up better than the previous forecast for N. Texas.

[cstrunk]

1.27" so far in Longview. Pretty heavy storm rolled through.

[Clearcloudz]

Remember the day after day forecast of 5-7" for the DFW area? Hopefully, the WPC forecast for Central and South Texas stands up better than the previous forecast for N. Texas.

https://x-hv1.pivotalweather.com/maps/wpc/latest/wpc_qpf_168h_p.us_sc.png

This makes me sad. Started with the entire state getting rain and slowly has been shifting eastward.

[Brent]

Rained about 10 minutes here... Barely wet the pavement. Really had a bad trend here from days of rain to isolated showers today. Tomorrow is sunny and back near 90

Hope y'all have better luck

[Ntxw]

Let us hope for an inch or two.

Once is random, twice is bad luck, over and over is just a pattern. Earlier we were discussing drought dent, now we are hopeful for just getting average August rainfall and prevent another deficit month.

[bubba hotep]

Some storms developing and expanding in coverage to the SW of DFW. Could this be what we've been waiting on? Various hi-res model runs this afternoon still highlight the potential for heavy training storms in the vicinity of DFW tonight.

[rwfromkansas]

I’m still at 0 for the event. At least the airport got lucky. Maybe the firing storms is the start. Maybe.

[rwfromkansas]

Finally raining and looking good over here. Up to .33 pretty fast.

Edit at 9:14: Already at 1.29. Wow.

Very high rates.

[Ntxw]

Radar looks pretty good for the metroplex. Come on totals!

[rwfromkansas]

Nearly 4-inch totals just south of me along 820 and slightly south.

I'm just over 2 inches, so I am at now officially the biggest rain of the entire year...

The last big rain IMBY was exactly 2 inches June 3.

Satisfying no matter what the total ends up being.

[gpsnowman]

Some solid rain coming down now. A beautiful sight to see. Hoping for a huge soaker tomorrow.

[rwfromkansas]

The NWS radar in apps is 30 minutes old for the second time tonight. Not sure why FWD can't keep this working.

[HockeyTx82]

The NWS radar in apps is 30 minutes old for the second time tonight. Not sure why FWD can't keep this working.

Federal Government.......

[Brent]

The NWS radar in apps is 30 minutes old for the second time tonight. Not sure why FWD can't keep this working.

Federal Government.......

Yup the status is red on radarscope and unavailable on the NWS site

[jasons2k]

Seems to be back up now. Carry on.

[cstrunk]

As of 11:20 pm, NWS Fort Worth has measured 6.73".

We'll see how well it all holds together or builds as it moves into my neck of the woods. I'm at 1.46" for Sunday.

[Brent]

That hole around Denton and McKinney gonna hold up?

[Ntxw]

DFW airport is closing in on 3" of rain.