POTENTIAL TROPICAL CYCLONE FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042022
2100 UTC FRI AUG 19 2022
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM BOCA DE CATAN NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH
OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM BOCA DE CATAN NORTHWARD TO THE
MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
* THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE MOUTH
OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 94.5W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 94.5W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 94.0W
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 22.0N 95.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 23.8N 96.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 25.6N 98.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 27.1N 99.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 94.5W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 20/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022
400 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 94.5W
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan northward to the Mouth
of the Rio Grande River.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the lower Texas coast
from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan northward to the
Mouth of the Rio Grande River
* The lower Texas coast from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth
of the Rio Grande River
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
20.7 North, longitude 94.5 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
disturbance is expected to approach the coast of northeastern
Mexico on Saturday and make landfall there Saturday night.
Satellite wind data and reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are
near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is
expected through landfall, and the disturbance is forecast to
become a tropical storm tonight or Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Four can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur in the
warning area beginning Saturday afternoon or evening.
RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated totals of 8
inches, along the eastern coast of Mexico from the northern
portions of the state of Veracruz across the state of Tamaulipas.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts
possible across far south Texas.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Mouth of Rio Grande to Port Mansfield TX...1-2 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 2 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
northeastern Mexico near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall.
SURF: Swells generated by this system is forecast to affect eastern
Mexico and southern Texas this weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022
400 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad low pressure
area in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico have become better
organized during the last 24 h, and reports from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate winds near 30 kt.
However, both the aircraft and scatterometer data show that
the disturbance does not yet have a well-defined circulation
center. Since the system is likely to develop further and make
landfall as a tropical storm in less than 36 h, advisories are
being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four with Tropical
Storm Warnings being issued for portions of the coasts of
northeastern Mexico and south Texas.
The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 315/12. The disturbance
is on the southwest side of a subtropical ridge, and a general
northwest motion should continue until the system moves inland over
northeastern Mexico. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and
the forecast track lies close to the various consensus models.
The disturbance is in an environment of light westerly vertical
shear, and this should continue until landfall. This should allow
continued development until the system reaches the coast, and the
official intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 40 kt
near landfall. It should be noted, though, that the global models
do not develop the system significantly before landfall, and if
they are correct any development could be slower than currently
forecast. The system will weaken after landfall, and by 60 h it
is forecast to be absorbed into a larger low pressure area forming
over western and northern Texas.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas on Saturday, where a Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued.
2. Rains from the system may begin to affect the eastern coast of
Mexico from northern Veracruz into southern Tamaulipas tonight into
early Saturday. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash
flooding and mudslides. Rain from this system may move into far
south Texas during the day on Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 20.7N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 20/0600Z 22.0N 95.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 20/1800Z 23.8N 96.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 25.6N 98.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/1800Z 27.1N 99.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042022
2100 UTC FRI AUG 19 2022
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM BOCA DE CATAN NORTHWARD TO THE MOUTH
OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO FROM BOCA DE CATAN NORTHWARD TO THE
MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
* THE LOWER TEXAS COAST FROM PORT MANSFIELD SOUTHWARD TO THE MOUTH
OF THE RIO GRANDE RIVER
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 94.5W AT 19/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 315 DEGREES AT 12 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.7N 94.5W AT 19/2100Z
AT 19/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.4N 94.0W
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 22.0N 95.6W...TROPICAL CYCLONE
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 23.8N 96.8W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0600Z 25.6N 98.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1800Z 27.1N 99.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
FORECAST VALID 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.7N 94.5W
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 20/0000Z
NEXT ADVISORY AT 20/0300Z
$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
BULLETIN
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022
400 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO AND SOUTH TEXAS...
SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 94.5W
ABOUT 400 MI...640 KM SSE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The Government of Mexico has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
the Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan northward to the Mouth
of the Rio Grande River.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the lower Texas coast
from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth of the Rio Grande River.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* The Gulf coast of Mexico from Boca de Catan northward to the
Mouth of the Rio Grande River
* The lower Texas coast from Port Mansfield southward to the Mouth
of the Rio Grande River
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the disturbance was centered near latitude
20.7 North, longitude 94.5 West. The system is moving toward the
northwest near 14 mph (22 km/h), and this motion is expected to
continue for the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the
disturbance is expected to approach the coast of northeastern
Mexico on Saturday and make landfall there Saturday night.
Satellite wind data and reports from an Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds are
near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Slow strengthening is
expected through landfall, and the disturbance is forecast to
become a tropical storm tonight or Saturday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1009 mb (29.80 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Four can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC.
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to occur in the
warning area beginning Saturday afternoon or evening.
RAINFALL: The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce
total rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated totals of 8
inches, along the eastern coast of Mexico from the northern
portions of the state of Veracruz across the state of Tamaulipas.
Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches with isolated higher amounts
possible across far south Texas.
STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and the tide will cause
normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters
moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the
following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if
the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...
Mouth of Rio Grande to Port Mansfield TX...1-2 ft
Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge
and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For
information specific to your area, please see products issued by
your local National Weather Service forecast office.
Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 2 feet above
normal tide levels along the immediate coast of
northeastern Mexico near and to the north of where the center makes
landfall.
SURF: Swells generated by this system is forecast to affect eastern
Mexico and southern Texas this weekend. These swells are likely to
cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.
$$
Forecaster Beven
Potential Tropical Cyclone Four Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042022
400 PM CDT Fri Aug 19 2022
Showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad low pressure
area in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico have become better
organized during the last 24 h, and reports from an Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate winds near 30 kt.
However, both the aircraft and scatterometer data show that
the disturbance does not yet have a well-defined circulation
center. Since the system is likely to develop further and make
landfall as a tropical storm in less than 36 h, advisories are
being initiated on Potential Tropical Cyclone Four with Tropical
Storm Warnings being issued for portions of the coasts of
northeastern Mexico and south Texas.
The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 315/12. The disturbance
is on the southwest side of a subtropical ridge, and a general
northwest motion should continue until the system moves inland over
northeastern Mexico. The track guidance is tightly clustered, and
the forecast track lies close to the various consensus models.
The disturbance is in an environment of light westerly vertical
shear, and this should continue until landfall. This should allow
continued development until the system reaches the coast, and the
official intensity forecast calls for a peak intensity of 40 kt
near landfall. It should be noted, though, that the global models
do not develop the system significantly before landfall, and if
they are correct any development could be slower than currently
forecast. The system will weaken after landfall, and by 60 h it
is forecast to be absorbed into a larger low pressure area forming
over western and northern Texas.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas on Saturday, where a Tropical
Storm Warning has been issued.
2. Rains from the system may begin to affect the eastern coast of
Mexico from northern Veracruz into southern Tamaulipas tonight into
early Saturday. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash
flooding and mudslides. Rain from this system may move into far
south Texas during the day on Saturday.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/2100Z 20.7N 94.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POTENTIAL TROP CYCLONE
12H 20/0600Z 22.0N 95.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H 20/1800Z 23.8N 96.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 25.6N 98.1W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 21/1800Z 27.1N 99.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
60H 22/0600Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Beven