UTSARoadrunner4 wrote:I see this becoming a strong TS or maybe a weak Hurricane. The only thing working against this thing is time, but things can change pretty quickly.
I hate to bring this storm up, but on August 23, 2017, Harvey was just starting up as a TD in the BOC and was only forecasted to be a strong TS. By the 24th, it was already a hurricane and by the 25th it was a MH. Harvey didn’t start creeping until it got close to the Texas.
I’M NOT SAYING THIS WILL BE HARVEY SO DON’T PANIC!! I’M NOT FEAR MONGERING EITHER!! A storm like Harvey is VERY unlikely to happen again and Harvey had some pretty unique circumstances, like a blocking high.
I’m just saying that this thing looks to good OVER the Yucatán to be discounted. I don’t think the models will have a better grasp on this thing until it hits BOC.
Also Nicholas last year. Its center relocation and subsequent intensification to a Cat 1 were not expected by most.
I think Nicholas is a reasonable ceiling for this system. I have a feeling that at least some people will be caught off guard by this on the bell ringing day.
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