Tropical Wave moving over the Yucatan (Is invest 99L)

[Edwards Limestone]

Then it wouldn’t be a surprise.

I can assure you, that if this was going to be a surprise system, more agencies and weather orgs would be discussing it. They're not at the moment.

Yeah I knew that was coming when I wrote it.

My point is that there's no one sounding any alarms on this one.

...yet.

[ChrisH-UK]

Looks to be healthy this morning.

GOES-16 GeoColour - https://col.st/2Gr1C

[Stormcenter]

Because the models (which we all know the NHC
& media rely on) are not showing anything developing.
But we all know or at least should know by now that the
models can be and are wrong at times.

Then it wouldn’t be a surprise.

I can assure you, that if this was going to be a surprise system, more agencies and weather orgs would be discussing it. They're not at the moment.

Yeah I knew that was coming when I wrote it.

My point is that there's no one sounding any alarms on this one.

[Category5Kaiju]

Anybody have any ideas on why models don't seem thrilled with this system? Because it looks extremely healthy right now (even over land), and I would have to imagine that the warm GoM waters and the very low deep and mid level wind shear would only help? Not to mention at least according to the SAL map, there's not much SAL in the GoM as of now?

[ChrisH-UK]

Anybody have any ideas on why models don't seem thrilled with this system? Because it looks extremely healthy right now (even over land), and I would have to imagine that the warm GoM waters and the very low deep and mid level wind shear would only help? Not to mention at least according to the SAL map, there's not much SAL in the GoM as of now?

In the models the vorticity isn't stacked stretching it out, yesterday it was stretched out but overnight it has seemed to of got it self sorted and stacked. I think in the next few runs the models will now have a better idea on the system and a better prediction on what's going to happen.

[Wampadawg]

Morning update from Jeff Lindner:

Gulf:
Tropical wave and mid level circulation that was over the far SW Caribbean Sea yesterday has moved inland over Belize and the southern Yucatan overnight. Vigorous deep convection has developed with this feature over northern Belize into the southern Yucatan overnight and this morning and overall the satellite appearance looks fairly impressive IR Satellite Loop for Western Atlantic | Tropical Tidbits Belize radar out of Philip Goldson Airport does not indicate any low level circulation associated with the mid level circulation and surface observations confirm this. With that said, this feature is highly active with convection, moreso than forecast models have been suggesting and yet most show little to no development of this feature as it moves over the southern Gulf starting tomorrow and then NW over the weekend. NHC has slightly increased the development probabilities to 30% over the next 5 days over the southwest Gulf. We shall see where this feature moves over the warm waters of the Bay of Campeche on Friday and if convection maintains its current cycle and development chances increase some. For now, just an increase in moisture for this weekend with the wave axis moving inland somewhere in NE MX or S TX, but I am not convinced the models are handling this feature well so it should be watched over the next few days once over the southern Gulf.

Jeff still seeing something…….

[Clearcloudz]

[ScottNAtlanta]

I said yesterday that if you take the models out and just look at what you see (something I repeat every year) You have a strong tropical wave that is showing some rotation under an Anticyclone with an ULL scooting off in tandem to the west. In the absence of dry air, what are your eyes telling you? Sometimes I think people get so wedded to the models they don't see what is actually going on in front of them

[Clearcloudz]

I said yesterday that if you take the models out and just look at what you see (something I repeat every year) You have a strong tropical wave that is showing some rotation under an Anticyclone with an ULL scooting off in tandem to the west. In the absence of dry air, what are your eyes telling you? Sometimes I think people get so wedded to the models they don't see what is actually going on in front of them

Welcome to the modern era where models are so accessible to the average person that they don't even bother looking at the satellite anymore and analyze real time trends.

[SoupBone]

I said yesterday that if you take the models out and just look at what you see (something I repeat every year) You have a strong tropical wave that is showing some rotation under an Anticyclone with an ULL scooting off in tandem to the west. In the absence of dry air, what are your eyes telling you? Sometimes I think people get so wedded to the models they don't see what is actually going on in front of them

You say all of this to chastize people, but offer no opinion on what you think is going to happen?

[ScottNAtlanta]

I said yesterday that if you take the models out and just look at what you see (something I repeat every year) You have a strong tropical wave that is showing some rotation under an Anticyclone with an ULL scooting off in tandem to the west. In the absence of dry air, what are your eyes telling you? Sometimes I think people get so wedded to the models they don't see what is actually going on in front of them

You say all of this to chastize people, but offer no opinion on what you think is going to happen?

I'm not chastising anyone. There are some really smart people on this forum that have access to some really good tools to analyze the synoptic pattern. I am just saying to use them. This is more of a challenge to people to do the work and learn something along the way. That is how you forecast. Not model watching. Models are a tool. Just like everything else.
I tend to think this might develop. More so that 30% for sure.

[Clearcloudz]

850 vort not exciting still stretched out. 99L coming soon?

[ScottNAtlanta]

850 vort not exciting still stretched out. 99L coming soon?

https://i.imgur.com/wsDDBOG.gif
https://i.imgur.com/kLw9nc5.gif

If you look at 700 and 500mb vorticity, while still not concentrated, it is where the convection is. Also the shape of the coast in the BOC tends to help focus vorticity, so I want to see what that looks like when it gets offshore. Also, look at the sat loop that @ChrisH-UK posted up thread. Where is the convection popping? That will be where the pressures will start to lower and thus that is where the vorticity will strengthen. That can happen rather quickly too

[Aric Dunn]

Vorticity maps, models, etc. are all missing the actual system.. but what's new ?

should hit the BOC nearly on the ground running..

[Stormcenter]

New GFS run shows nothing so far through Saturday …..so strange.

[Iceresistance]

This already looks like a TD or TS, it's looking so good over the Yucatán.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/89844104.gif

Maybe the models are thinking that this may collapse the moment it lands on the BoC?

EDIT: It looks like it's already trying to form a LLC as well, this is wild!

[cycloneye]

Recon for friday afternoon. Will be invest 99L later this afternoon or tonight.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Looks good. This might be a case of brown ocean effect.
When a tropical disturbance or cyclone strengthens over land, it’s called the brown ocean effect because the moist warm earth is releasing enough latent heat to support the development of a tropical cyclone. Yucatán peninsula has been known to be favorable for cyclone development in some cases.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Anyone that is viewing the RAMMB/CIRA Slider loops what you would want to see for further development is those lower level clouds start to be pulled in to where the MLC is. Looking at it the MLC is getting much more focused, but I'm not seeing the low level convection move quite yet. The next couple of hours will be telling. There is definitely low level inflow from the SE but that would be expected with a wave axis. If I start seeing it from the SW thats when I know it is trying to focus

[Iceresistance]

Anyone that is viewing the RAMMB/CIRA Slider loops what you would want to see for further development is those lower level clouds start to be pulled in to where the MLC is. Looking at it the MLC is getting much more focused, but I'm not seeing the low level convection move quite yet. The next couple of hours will be telling. There is definitely low level inflow from the SE but that would be expected with a wave axis. If I start seeing it from the SW thats when I know it is trying to focus

I'm seeing that on WeatherNerds.

https://www.weathernerds.org/satellite/?initsatsrc=On&initsatname=GOES-E&initsattype=vis&initcscheme=vis1&initimdimx=1050&initimdimy=780&initrange=22.500:-93.000:15.000:-83.750&initloop=True&initnframes=20&initlightningge=On&initlightninggw=Off&initltngfed=Off&initltngtoe=Off&initinterstates=On&initwarnings=On&initlatlon=Off&initascatb=Off&initascatc=Off&initascatambb=Off&initascatambc=Off&initsst=Off