2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
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- Iceresistance
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Seriously? Another big SAL outbreak?
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/saharan_dust_car_1cf922a56d0f78f91.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/saharan_dust_car_1cf922a56d0f78f91.png
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
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Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Iceresistance wrote:Seriously? Another big SAL outbreak?
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/saharan_dust_car_1cf922a56d0f78f91.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/saharan_dust_car_1cf922a56d0f78f91.png
I've watched SAL over the last several days, and it does appear to be another push of dry air coming. It's clearly still very dry out there too.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Maybe this happened in 2013 ?
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- skyline385
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
SoupBone wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Seriously? Another big SAL outbreak?
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/saharan_dust_car_1cf922a56d0f78f91.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/saharan_dust_car_1cf922a56d0f78f91.png
I've watched SAL over the last several days, and it does appear to be another push of dry air coming. It's clearly still very dry out there too.
Yea it’s another outbreak, showing on the models too
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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- Spacecoast
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
NASA 10 day forecast:
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- Iceresistance
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
hcane27 wrote:Maybe this happened in 2013 ?
2017 had a Mid-August SAL outbreak, then came Harvey and Irma and the rest was history.
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
skyline385 wrote:SoupBone wrote:Iceresistance wrote:Seriously? Another big SAL outbreak?
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/saharan_dust_car_1cf922a56d0f78f91.png
https://s4.gifyu.com/images/saharan_dust_car_1cf922a56d0f78f91.png
I've watched SAL over the last several days, and it does appear to be another push of dry air coming. It's clearly still very dry out there too.
Yea it’s another outbreak, showing on the models too
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220818/5ead5d488ef14b6cac20849938d6f04b.jpg
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
This newest SAL appears to me to be the main thing that tries to prevent the AEW now just off Africa from developing.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Is anyone here familiar with the climo of TCs that originate in August from the ITCZ near S America? I'm asking because the 6Z GEFS rather heavily threatens FL/Gulf coast mainly from something just off S America. Are there any notable storms in the past that did this in August? This seems quite unusual and makes me wonder if the 6Z GEFS members doing this are likely bogus.
Last edited by LarryWx on Thu Aug 18, 2022 10:37 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- SFLcane
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
LarryWx wrote:skyline385 wrote:SoupBone wrote:
I've watched SAL over the last several days, and it does appear to be another push of dry air coming. It's clearly still very dry out there too.
Yea it’s another outbreak, showing on the models too
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20220818/5ead5d488ef14b6cac20849938d6f04b.jpg
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
This newest SAL appears to me to be the main thing that tries to prevent the AEW now just off Africa from developing.
I'd like to know what the gefs is picking up on bringing to Florida it has been rather persistent with that idea. Unless off course its bluff which it might be.
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
LarryWx wrote:Is anyone here familiar with the climo of TCs that originate in August from the ITCZ near S America? I'm asking because the 6Z GEFS rather heavily threatens FL/Gulf coast mainly from something just off S America. Are there any notable storms in the past that did this in August? This seems quite unusual and makes me wonder if the 6Z GEFS members doing this are likely bogus.
It's not a common thing for sure.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
SFLcane wrote:LarryWx wrote:Is anyone here familiar with the climo of TCs that originate in August from the ITCZ near S America? I'm asking because the 6Z GEFS rather heavily threatens FL/Gulf coast mainly from something just off S America. Are there any notable storms in the past that did this in August? This seems quite unusual and makes me wonder if the 6Z GEFS members doing this are likely bogus.
It's not a common thing for sure.
Thanks. I just went back to 1995 and couldn't find even a single storm that did anything like this in any month. I thought perhaps Gustav of 2008 and Isidore of 2002, but the wiki writeups for both of these said they both originated solely from AEWs. I'll go back before 1995 and see if I can find any.
Edit: I then went all of the way back to 1950 and still found nothing like what the 6Z GEFS did from off of S America in any month. So, I'm calling this bogus at this point.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- SFLcane
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
LarryWx wrote:SFLcane wrote:LarryWx wrote:Is anyone here familiar with the climo of TCs that originate in August from the ITCZ near S America? I'm asking because the 6Z GEFS rather heavily threatens FL/Gulf coast mainly from something just off S America. Are there any notable storms in the past that did this in August? This seems quite unusual and makes me wonder if the 6Z GEFS members doing this are likely bogus.
It's not a common thing for sure.
Thanks. I just went back to 1995 and couldn't find even a single storm that did anything like this in any month. I thought perhaps Gustav of 2008 and Isidore of 2002, but the wiki writeups for both of these said they both originated solely from AEWs. I'll go back before 1995 and see if I can find any.
Edit: I then went all of the way back to 1950 and still found nothing like what the 6Z GEFS did from off of S America in any month. So, I'm calling this bogus at this point.
This entire season thus far has been bogus.
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
The next 10 days are going to make or break this season. If we don’t see an uptick in activity in the deep tropics by the end of the month, then the uptick probably won’t come. I’m not aware of any active season that starting going after September 1st.
And by an uptick, I mean a couple of storms forming or soon to form over a period of a week or so. If future 99L develops but there are no more systems throughout August and the models are still pushing back MDR activity, then it’ll be safe to call this season an absolute bust.
And by an uptick, I mean a couple of storms forming or soon to form over a period of a week or so. If future 99L develops but there are no more systems throughout August and the models are still pushing back MDR activity, then it’ll be safe to call this season an absolute bust.
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
No sign of any of that nonsense the GEFS has
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
aspen wrote:The next 10 days are going to make or break this season. If we don’t see an uptick in activity in the deep tropics by the end of the month, then the uptick probably won’t come. I’m not aware of any active season that starting going after September 1st.
And by an uptick, I mean a couple of storms forming or soon to form over a period of a week or so. If future 99L develops but there are no more systems throughout August and the models are still pushing back MDR activity, then it’ll be safe to call this season an absolute bust.
1961:
That season ended with 189 ACE, yet only a single storm formed prior to September.
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models
Teban54 wrote:aspen wrote:The next 10 days are going to make or break this season. If we don’t see an uptick in activity in the deep tropics by the end of the month, then the uptick probably won’t come. I’m not aware of any active season that starting going after September 1st.
And by an uptick, I mean a couple of storms forming or soon to form over a period of a week or so. If future 99L develops but there are no more systems throughout August and the models are still pushing back MDR activity, then it’ll be safe to call this season an absolute bust.
1961:
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/timeline/6vb1b5fwlf363fqxe6xire3n6ab7om4.png
That season ended with 189 ACE, yet only a single storm formed prior to September.
LOL let's tell ourselves that.
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