Cpv17 wrote:Ntxw wrote:La Nina -1.1C this week and it is only August. We are headed for the strongest Nina event since 2010. With the PDO sink last month long term drought will persist if not get worse.
The broad rainfall pattern indexes (PDO, ENSO, and SOI) hasn't changed all that much. We are sitting about where we were in April. And that told us back then the coming months would favor dry, same here.
Short and medium term we can still get bouts of rain from intraseasonal variability. The last half of August should be better than the first half. But this is basic climo saying it should.
Models seem to be looking good in the medium to long range only to slowly fade away as it gets closer. Really discouraging.
I know it's been hopes up and down. The 500mb weakness feature will provide daily rainfall chances, but we have to consider the background state so instead of 1-3" like they show long term reality is probably 0.5-1" just basing off persistence.