Wow, it sure feels so nice yet strange to be back on this forum after 2 weeks...thanks so much for the support folks; my health is still not 100% perfect but has definitely been improving recently. I'll hopefully be more frequent on here by around the coming weeks or so.
Anyways, so I've been briefly combing over what I've missed out on so far and....all I have to say is,
yikes. There's clearly some huge head-scratching and confusion about what is happening. We're just 6 days away from the bell-ringing date, and by then it would surely be interesting to see what models have to say by then. At this point I am starting to think that NS count is highly likely going to be lower than 20 (probably 15-17 as a reasonable max estimate); however, we are still nevertheless far from the dangerous months of September and October (and by then, one would plausibly think that the La Nina forcing and climo would help to charge the Atlantic).
Now here's what I think: I am still on the belief that we will see at least a couple NSs form by August 31. Now it's really important to understand that especially in a period like August, quiet periods like this don't necessarily mean "bust" season. As we have seen with years like 1961, 1988 (seems like hammy likes this year), 1998, 1999, and 2019, August quiet periods (and I mean quiet as in zero NSs, not weak TSs) do tend to correlate with heightened periods of activity thereafter. On a rather unusual note, 2013 was actually featuring NSs in August; clearly, what we're seeing now is exactly not that
. Now it remains to be seen what this year will do, but imho, seeing a season that takes off late month (especially when the EPAC should surely be dead by then with the sinking air) would not be all that surprising.
Now I believe it looks like one of the moderators has recently shared the tweet, but Dylan Federico actually makes a very intriguing point that I cannot help but agree with, at least for now. With how dead the WPAC is and how the EPAC has really started to wind down, it would be expected that the Atlantic would eventually take over and dominate. Now if that fails to happen, then we're basically talking about all 3 major Northern Hemisphere basins being quiet by the month's end or so. Is this even physically possible? That's a question that I personally have, as I am under the assumption that air would need to rise somewhere in the tropics in a given year, especially in August of all months. Judging by history, such an event would be rather exceptionally odd, as it seems like the last time in history a storm of at least Cat 4 strength failed to form in August across all 3 of those basins was in 1991. I mean, it doesn't seem like the WPAC and EPAC produced any beautiful majors as of this month either.
Anyways, the point of my long rant is, I think it's still worthwhile to stay vigilant, as you may never know as the models would simply be trying to adjust to the incoming favorable CCKW/MJO for the Atlantic (at least based on the recent GFS runs, it seems like the WPAC and EPAC are essentially shut down).
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.