San Juan Discussion

[Ola]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 130330
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
1125 PM AST WED NOV 12 2003

THE CURRENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN CONTINUES...WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED JUST TO THE WEST OF THE LOCAL AREA AND AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST OF THE REGION. RECENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY AND MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS NOW IN A FAVORABLE POSITON TO INFLUENCE THE MID LEVEL
DYNAMICS JUST TO THE NORTH OF PUERTO RICO AND UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE
ALSO LOOKS FAVORABLE. IN ADDITION THE 00Z SOUNDING INDICATED THAT
THE HELICITY HAD INCREASED TO 90 AND PRECIP. WATER IS NEAR 2.5
INCHES. GIVEN ALL THESE FACTORS...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND RADAR HAVE
INDICATED A FLARE UP IN THE CONVECTION THIS EVENING.
LASTLY...ANALYSIS OF THE RADAR ALSO SEEMS TO INDICATE A LARGE SCALE
CYCLONIC ROTATION TO THE CONVECTION OVER THE REGION...MAYBE
SUGGESTING THAT THERE IS A BROAD MID LEVEL CIRCULATION...WITH MODEL
GUIDANCE INDICATING A BROAD CLOSED LOW AT 500 MB. IN SUMMARY...THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND TOMMOROW.

FOR MARINE CONDTIONS...GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED FLARE UP IN
CONVECTION ADDED STATEMENT FOR OVER NIGHT PERIOD FOR ALL MARINE
ZONES ABOUT WINDS AND SEAS HIGHER AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN OR NEAR
THUNDERSTORMS.

.SJU...
.PR...FFA PRZALL. FLW FOR MOST OF EASTERN HALF OF PUERTO RICO.
.VI...FFA VIZALL. FFW VIZALL.



DIEHL


.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHOWER COVERAGE HAVE INCREASE AND THE ENTIRE ISLAND IS BEING
AFFECTED BY THIS SYSTEM. THIS WEATHER SCENARIO IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AND REMAIN RAINY AND UNSTABLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA EXTENDING FROM DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.
IN THE SHORT TERM MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
NEXT 48 HOURS ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF PUERTO RICO AND VIRGIN
ISLANDS.

THE MOISTURE IS TO START LIFTING AWAY ON FRIDAY WITH IMPROVING
WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BUT IT SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED. A COLD
FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY AFFECTING THE LOCAL
AREA THROUGH SATURDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS.

MARINE...A NORTHERN SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO REACH THE NORTHERN COAST
THROUGH THURSDAY. THE WWIII MODEL IS SUGGESTING A SIGNIFICANT SWELL
EVENT FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH 3.3 METERS LONG PERIODS SWELLS



EQUIPMENT...NO PROBLEMS AT THIS TIME

$$