2022 CPAC Season

[cycloneye]

Is expected to be a below average season with between 2 to 4 named storms thanks to La Niña. Here is the NOAA outlook for this basin.

https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa- ... ane-season

[AnnularCane]

Two to four named storms.

I know it's the CPAC, but I wonder what it would take for the Atlantic to get such a prediction. Probably the El Nino to end all El Ninos for starters.

[Yellow Evan]

Two to four named storms.

I know it's the CPAC, but I wonder what it would take for the Atlantic to get such a prediction. Probably the El Nino to end all El Ninos for starters.

If you only counted storms with tropical origins the Atlantic would rival that level of inactivity in -AMO’s.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 AM HST Sun Jul 10 2022

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

The National Hurricane Center in Miami, Florida is issuing
advisories on Tropical Storm Darby centered about 2600 miles
southeast of Hilo, Hawaii. Tropical Storm Darby is expected to move
into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center area of responsibility
late Thursday.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Blood

[cycloneye]

Ex Bonnie remanants getting closer to Hawaii and what will be left of Darby will bring rain.

 https://twitter.com/NWSHonolulu/status/1547000275218546689

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/NWSHonolulu/status/1547760629041115136

[cycloneye]

With La Niña present, this basin aparently will have something to track south of Hawaii.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 AM HST Fri Aug 5 2022

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Well Southeast of the Main Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure is forecast to form over the far western
portion of the eastern Pacific basin by this weekend. Environmental
conditions could allow for some gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form early next week while it moves
westward toward and into the central Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster EATON

[Ntxw]

With the right track and if it gets it together, as noted by Kingarabian in the EPAC thread could be a beauty. Also a lot of ACE with that kind of track.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Fri Aug 5 2022

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

Well Southeast of the Main Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure could form over the far western
portion of the eastern Pacific basin this weekend. Environmental
conditions should allow for some gradual development of this system,
and a tropical depression could form during the early or middle part
of next week while it moves quickly westward over the central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster EATON

[Kingarabian]

Shouldn't be a Hawaii threat according to guidance. Makes sense since the WPAC has been dead with no recurving Typhoon remnants to break the ridge.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
200 PM HST Sat Aug 6 2022

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. Well Southeast of the Main Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure could form well southeast or south of the
main Hawaiian Islands Monday or Tuesday. Environmental conditions
could allow for some gradual development of this system, and a
tropical depression could form as it moves quickly westward over the
central Pacific during the middle part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

Forecaster Wroe

[Kingarabian]

Euro and CMC still show a robust disturbance in regards to the 0/40 AOI. GFS continues to have a robust TC developing. I would say odds are much higher than 0/40 over the next 5 days. GFS Shifts it closer to Kauai but still too far west for any impacts. Still a long way out and I think the most likely scenario here is a weak TC developing and moving west past the DL.

[cycloneye]

And now there are two. All of this with La Niña.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 AM HST Sun Aug 7 2022

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. Well South of the Main Hawaiian Islands:
An area of low pressure could form late Tuesday or Wednesday
within a broad trough several hundred miles south of the main
Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions could allow for some
gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could
form as it moves quickly westward over the central Pacific later
this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

2. Well East-Southeast of the Main Hawaiian Islands:
A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is
associated with a broad trough of low pressure located more than
1000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Some gradual
development of this system is possible through the middle part of
this week while it moves generally westward into the central
Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days.

Forecaster Wroe

[Ntxw]

Think it's worth a designation?

[Kingarabian]

Probably close to a TC now but the CPHC is extremely strict.

[cycloneye]

Invest 90C is up

[skyline385]

Probably close to a TC now but the CPHC is extremely strict.

CPHC gonna CPHC

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1558236805983510528

[Kingarabian]

Probably close to a TC now but the CPHC is extremely strict.

CPHC gonna CPHC

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1558236805983510528?s=20&t=1RnSzcOLUlijSvWvcu5WCQ

It is what it is

[cycloneye]

Will something develop from this?

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI
800 AM HST Fri Nov 25 2022

For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:

1. A trough of low pressure about 900 miles southwest of the Hawaiian
Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. An area
of low pressure is expected to develop along the trough over the
weekend, and some slow development of this system is possible early
next week as it moves slowly northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent

[cycloneye]

GFS and ECMWF are bullish.