Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season

[skyline385]

Phil went with 150 & 18/8/4, lower than my prediction of 160

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1555191841682690048

[SFLcane]

Right on cue. 18/8/4

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1555192582317244417

[skyline385]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1555192582317244417

Yea it is very interesting that Phil says cooler sub-tropics can cause increased shear while everyone has been saying it would benefit the MDR with less instability in the sub-tropics. He associates it to wave-breaking in the discussion.

[SFLcane]

No wonder the models are not showing anything lol.

[cycloneye]

41 pages.

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-08.pdf

[cycloneye]

The famous donut.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1555192843467366402

[SFLcane]

Cooler subtropics- favors wavbreaking that dumps shear and dry air into the basin.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1555193588601995264

[zzh]

One of the reasons for the reduction in our
forecast was due to anomalous cooling in the subtropical eastern and central Atlantic.
Cooler-than-normal SSTs in this region have been associated with enhanced
wavebreaking into the tropics, which could potentially somewhat counteract the
anticipated reduction in wind shear associated with La Niña.

Cold Canary is associated with wavebreaking

[cycloneye]

WAM.

During July, the West African monsoon has generally been relatively active, with
enhanced vertical motion over West Africa (Figure 28). We anticipate short-term
suppression of the monsoon in the next ten days, however, after that time, the monsoon
does look like to become reinvigorated, likely leading to a heightened period of Atlantic
hurricane activity (Figure 29). We will have more to say about the West African
monsoon and shorter-term Atlantic hurricane chances with our first two-week Atlantic
hurricane forecast, which will be released later today.

[mcheer23]

NOAA
Total Storms:14-20
H:6-10
MH:3-5

[skyline385]

NOAA
Total Storms:14-20
H:6-10
MH:3-5

Previously, 14-21/6-10/3-5 so almost no change. But then again, their large range affords them that luxury

[cycloneye]

[toad strangler]

From what I can tell NOAA makes no mention of the cooler sub tropics & wave breaking

[cycloneye]

Two week forecast from CSU.

We believe that the most likely category for Atlantic hurricane activity in the next two
weeks is normal (50%), with below-normal (40%)

https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-0804.pdf

[cheezyWXguy]

Strikes me as kind of odd that the numbers are still weighted toward quantity over quality. June and July are the most common periods for slop, and with those out of the way, ASO seem more likely to contain quality storms by comparison. With the first half of august looking just as empty as the last two months, I’m inclined to lean toward the lower end of the NS count if the H/MH ranges are to be maintained.

[cycloneye]

From NOAA:

There are several atmospheric and oceanic conditions that still favor an active hurricane season. This includes La Niña conditions, which are favored to remain in place for the rest of 2022 and could allow the ongoing high-activity era conditions to dominate, or slightly enhance hurricane activity. In addition to a continued La Niña, weaker tropical Atlantic trade winds, an active west African Monsoon and likely above-normal Atlantic sea-surface temperatures set the stage for an active hurricane season and are reflective of the ongoing high-activity era for Atlantic hurricanes.

[cycloneye]

Here is the summary of what happened today with the numbers from CSU and NOAA.

[ConvergenceZone]

In my opinion I still think the first hurricane won't form until the first week of September, although we could see a tropical storm or 2 towards the middle or end of August...We'll see..............