2022 Madden-Julian Oscillation

[ManilaTC]

I see no one has started a thread on the MJO state... or is there?
In that case lets start here Feel free to add along...

[ManilaTC]

Maritime Continent...

[Kingarabian]

Good thread. Whenever its talked about, its usually in the yearly indicators thread or ENSO thread

[zzh]

ECMWF has the MJO moved into phase 1-2 by July 20. Their extended forecast has it stuck over Africa/IO until early August.

[SteveM]

Can I ask where those graphs can be found and how to interpret them, please? Thanks folks.

[underthwx]

https://i.imgur.com/8dSDXtD.gif

Maritime Continent...

May I aak you what is the Maritime Continent? (By the way, I have family in Mandaluyong City)

[skyline385]

https://i.imgur.com/8dSDXtD.gif

Maritime Continent...

May I aak you what is the Maritime Continent? (By the way, I have family in Mandaluyong City)

Here

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maritime_Continent

[ScottNAtlanta]

If you want to look at the different models to compare
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

[ScottNAtlanta]

The US dynamical models (NCPE, NCPB,etc) have a pretty well known bias to over do phases 4,5 and 6 and they really are the only ones going in that direction. All of the other models head to either the null phase or move over to 8, 1, or 2 (or in to the null phase on that side)

[weeniepatrol]

[ScottNAtlanta]

The ECMWF suite is still pretty insistent on a move through the null phase and into 1 and 2. The Japanese model also goes in a B-line to 1. The American models are all over the place. My feeling is that with the SST set up the ECMWF is probably the more accurate solution.

[weeniepatrol]

As expected, GEFS is caving.

[Steve]

Looks like MJO crossed the circle and is now into Phase 1.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

Right on queue, a low is over the SE US and fortunately not over water.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

[AnnularCane]

Right on queue, a low is over the SE US and fortunately not over water.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

Doesn't always stop them though.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like MJO crossed the circle and is now into Phase 1.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... r_wh.shtml

Right on queue, a low is over the SE US and fortunately not over water.
https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

There is an interesting feature north of Hispaniola. and now the GFS is forecasting way into 1 and 2

[Steve]

Nothing to report on the MJO which isn’t coincidental with the lack of anything organized. There isn’t much amplification. and most of the models show a week into Phase 4 & 5 (maritime) and back into the circle to piddle around there for a little while. There’s some longer term hint of a slide back to phases 1/2 in a few weeks with the JMA and Australian BOM. I’ll be watching for mid-term adjustments in those models to see if they sniff out any upcoming bursting periods in the Atlantic. It will also be cool to see how long it stays in 1-2-3. If it stays there you have threats until moves out. If it rotates through 2 or 3 and out, how long before it gets back around to 8. MJO is generalized as a 45- day cycle (30-60 days). But that’s average. I’ve seen it move into the circle out of 2 or 3, only to skip everything else and drop back into 8 or 1. I wish the longer term models were more accurate so we would have a better preview on the likelihood of development and also the areas most usually impacted in a given phase. Definitely stay tuned to the MJO as it appears to be a year when it’s signaling could be important.

[Steve]

Japanese and Australian models like a dive out the circle into Phase 1 about a week from now. If they are right (both tend to be decent MJO models), it will be cool to see if we can get anything going by week 2. It might still be too early without something at the ready, but also important is how it behaves once in Phase 2 and how long it stays.

BOMA (AU)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... boma.shtml

JMAN (JA)
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... jman.shtml

[Steve]

Japanese Model
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... jman.shtml

It's backed up a couple days in time from earlier in the week, but look at the dive into the line between Phases 1 and 2 on August 11th. Literally every JMA ensemble goes into 2 which means we will go into a favorable Atlantic phase if it is correct. How long will it stay in 2, and what the next move of the MJO is after 2 will indicate whether we should expect to see activity in the 3rd and 4th week of August or if it's going to come after that. The model goes out to August 15 which is a week from next Monday. It has it hooking back toward the circle, but pay attention to what it shows over the next several days and how its output evolves. Though I don't have statistical backup and since the Climate Prediction Center had a couple years where the JMA wasn't loading properly into their feed, I don't have recent anecdotal verification. But trust me on this. When it's on during the meat of the season, you can pull up the Hurricane Activity in a given location based on whatever phase MJO is in. I'll post that chart once I find that link again.

[Iceresistance]

It could jump into Phase 1 later this week.


https://s4.gifyu.com/images/MJO.gif

[Kingarabian]

Still looks like it's in the far eastern EPAC from the looks of IR imagery. Slowly making its way to the WCARIBBEAN.