#12643 Postby Category5Kaiju » Mon Jul 25, 2022 10:20 pm
captainbarbossa19 wrote:cycloneye wrote:captainbarbossa19 wrote:
Similar to a 100-year flood, the strength of this ENSO event is increasingly unlikely to occur anytime soon when it is over. I am also wondering if this could be like a pendulum and swing hard in the opposite direction?
You mean a Moderate to Strong El Niño for 2023, 2024, 2025, same threepeat that La Niña has done?
Possibly, but not necessarily the same duration. I was referring to just seeing a strong El Niño though. I think the threepeat is highly unlikely.
I guess someone else with more knowledge could elaborate on this, but it's actually very rare to see back-to-back El Nino years historically, and it's easier to see multi-year La Nina events unfold. However, historically speaking, El Ninos tend to be able to achieve more powerful states moreso than La Ninas; for example, we've never seen a "Very Strong" La Nina with greater than 2 C deviations from normal, but there have been 3 of such El Ninos in 1982, 1997, and 2015.
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