SIO: 95S - Tropical Low

[Nancy Smar]

95S INVEST 220724 0000 2.0S 92.0E SHEM 15 1010

[wxman57]

Scatterometer data indicates it is at least a TD and quite possibly a TS now. Meteo France ad BoM are basically saying no development likely. Better check again...

[MHC Tracking]

JTWC has issued a TCFA.

[wxman57]

Recent scatterometer pass says it's a TS. Jakarta, official agency of the region, says a 20-40% chance of development. I have it a TS in our advisory.

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like JTWC renumbered

01S INVEST 220728 1800 10.5S 95.1E SHEM 35 998

[MHC Tracking]

JTWC cone is out. 45 kt peak

[Grifforzer]

01U "Nameless" 11.5S 94.7E central pressure 996 hPa Max winds 20.6 m/s (40 kts)

Appears BOM may have system at 40 knots in the next TC bulletin.

[wxman57]

BoM requires 34+ kt winds to extend more than half way around the center for naming. In an email from someone there, they said it was borderline, right at 50%.

[Grifforzer]

Gale force winds are in the southwestern and southeastern quadrants only preventing it to be officially named a tropical cyclone.

Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: - - -
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm (165 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 100 nm (185 km)
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: - - -

India Meteorological Department satellite bulletin has 01S stronger.
VORTEX OVER S INDIAN OCEAN CENTERED NEAR 12.2S / 93.7E (.) INTENSITY T3.0/3.0 (.) - 20:30 PM IST

[Grifforzer]

TCWC Perth issued final bulletin on 01U as it has significantly weakened.