aspen wrote:MHC Tracking wrote:aspen wrote:If Celia gets upgraded in post-season analysis and Estelle’s intensification continues, that means the EPac will have six consecutive hurricanes….in a -ENSO and -PDO year.
Something is not right with this year. In 2020 and 2021, so many EPac systems struggled to even get past 50 kt and looked like tropical roadkill. The Nina is still in place, but the EPac is somehow far less hostile.
Pretty much no chance Celia is upped imo, ASCAT supported only 40-45 kt a little before peak, factoring in some intensification afterwards as evidenced by rising MW estimates, ~55 kt seems about right
After its initial peak, it rapidly recovered and had a fully developed eyewall. The NHC only upped it to 50 kt then, but the eyewall suggests it was indeed a hurricane.
However, as it was over significantly cooler waters at that time (~25C) it's likely that mixing was suboptimal imo. 55 kt then, probably, but 65 kt seems unlikely and was also not supported by the objective methods of intensity estimation the NHC uses
