jconsor wrote:Climate Impact Company Forecast is out:
https://climateimpactcompany.com/north- ... atology-3/The Climate Impact Company 2022 North Atlantic tropical cyclone season forecast is based on a new forecast methodology. The methodology accounts for activity, intensity and location. The activity forecast indicates 19 tropical storms, 9 hurricanes and 4 intense hurricanes for the 2022 season. The activity forecast rank is in the top ten highest from the 1950-2021 climatology.
The ACE index forecast which identifies the intensity of the season is 135 ranking 20th most intense in the 1950-2021 climatology. The location forecast favors the most active and intense zone for tropical cyclones across Florida and just-off the U.S. East Coast. Florida is a primary landfall target for 2022 tropical cyclones. The forecast is based on a multivariate ENSO index analog combined with analogs for the North Atlantic SSTA pattern by combining both the AMO and TNA regimes.
Their analog years (based on expected atmospheric ENSO response i.e. MEI, and expected Atlantic SST including AMO and TNA) are 2000, 2001, 2008, 2012, 2019, 2020.
Climate Impact Company just updated their forecast yesterday....
Seasonal Amount Forecast for North Atlantic Tropics Reduced Slightly; Mostly “Fish” Storms. Still…Expect 2 Major Hurricanes to Strike U.S.https://climateimpactcompany.com/seasonal-amount-forecast-for-north-atlantic-tropics-reduced-slightly-mostly-fish-storms-stillexpect-2-major-hurricanes-to-strike-u-s-2-2/They dropped from 20/10/5 to 18/8/3.....:
![Image](https://i.ibb.co/DKrqGJr/ccc.jpg)
"Executive summary: Due to unexpected cooler than normal waters in the North Atlantic basin subtropics and only near normal SSTA in the deep tropics the 2022 seasonal tropical cyclone forecast is reduced slightly in the latest Climate Impact Company update. A La Nina climate persists and the attendant low-shear upper tropospheric wind to allow tropical cyclones to flourish is still expected. However, slightly reduced upper ocean heat will make this season slightly less robust than previously indicated. The analog years suggest that most of this season’s storms will stay out to sea. However, the analog years also suggest renegade unusually strong storms making landfall on the U.S. Coast is likely and they could occur as late as October. Operational forecasts indicate limited or no risk of tropical cyclone activity the next 15 days (through August 7th). This season is shaping up as a delayed start to the core of the seasonal activity and once the pattern becomes active lingering later than normal (through October) is (now) expected."
![Image](https://i.ibb.co/xhKbVvk/cca.jpg)
Updated seasonal activity forecast: The NEW analog years selected to produce the updated seasonal tropical cyclone activity outlook for the North Atlantic basin are 2000, 2011, 2012 and 2018.