Foxfires wrote:Ntxw wrote:Foxfires wrote:
To be fair, it seems like that was kind of the case in a couple years, but no years on record have had the EPAC beating the WPAC by ACE count. EPAC in general is just more frontloaded and isn't very backloaded, because the basin literally has significantly more July activity than it has in October, never mind November, which has less than or not much more activity than May (this is all from total storm count from each category from a Wikipedia chart + one from a NOAA FAQ so I'm not sure how ACE stacks up).
ACE wise the EPAC is more active after August 1st. In reality the basin averages 42 units by July 31st. The remaining 90 units occurs between Aug-Nov. Now July does tend to have the highest uptick curve meaning it can load up pretty quickly.
http://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northeastpacific
I'm aware it peaks at Aug-Sep. I'm just saying that it probably won't keep up this activity through Oct-Dec, at least not this year.
It may not. But at the moment it's doing so with just about every condition unfavorable to it which is astonishing. Front loaded seasons usually exist with +NPMM or +PDO of some sort tugging the Nina but by every metric it should be very quiet currently. That's the unusual part.