2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Category5Kaiju]

Considering this year has an extremely high chance of at least weak La Nina conditions, this is already a major factor that differentiates 2022 from 2013, no matter how you look at it. 2013 did not feature La Nina forcing whatsoever (and, of course, was clearly not a 3rd year La Nina lol), so that alone should be enough to believe that this year is highly unlikely going to be a repeat of 2013. 2013 being a year that featured activity that was highly anomalous and something literally every year since 1925 failed to do.

I'm not expecting a year like 2005 or 2013 to happen anytime soon lol. And I suppose if we actually do, then I'll just have to eat my shoes.

[cycloneye]

Ok some are going from hyperactive to 2013 in 24 hrs. I suggest you follow official sources as Phil k who has been doing this for 30 years. It’s not going to be another 2013

No one is doing that

The cooling of the Canary Current is noticeable but it’s not going to be another 2013.

A few pockets of warm water in the current but there has to be much more warming.

[toad strangler]

Uncle SAL in control of the MDR for now.
#normalclimatology

Enjoy these long care free summer days while ya can

 http://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1545750867961430017

[aspen]

The CFS seems to have reflected the last 24 hours here. Today’s run is quite bearish with barely anything in September and one MDR storm in August. Yesterday’s run went berserk, with:
—A long-tracking MDR major in the second week of August (close call recurve)
—A second August MDR hurricane (also a recurve) between the 20th-25th
—Two MDR storms passing near the NE Caribbean within the first 8 days of September, as well as a giant front that keeps them away from the CONUS
—A Gulf major into Louisiana on September 8/9th
—Another 4 or 5 MDR systems in September, with the final two lasting into early October

Friday’s run seems excessively active, while today’s run seems way too inactive, unless that Canary Current cooling somehow shuts down the entire basin. The former could yield 200+ ACE while the latter might not even crack 100. I highly doubt we see a record-active MDR during ASO or a near record quiet September.

[cycloneye]

The CFS seems to have reflected the last 24 hours here. Today’s run is quite bearish with barely anything in September and one MDR storm in August. Yesterday’s run went berserk, with:
—A long-tracking MDR major in the second week of August (close call recurve)
—A second August MDR hurricane (also a recurve) between the 20th-25th
—Two MDR storms passing near the NE Caribbean within the first 8 days of September, as well as a giant front that keeps them away from the CONUS
—A Gulf major into Louisiana on September 8/9th
—Another 4 or 5 MDR systems in September, with the final two lasting into early October

Friday’s run seems excessively active, while today’s run seems way too inactive, unless that Canary Current cooling somehow shuts down the entire basin. The former could yield 200+ ACE while the latter might not even crack 100. I highly doubt we see a record-active MDR during ASO or a near record quiet September.

I guess this will be the theme of today on this thread. Do you have the link to CFS?

[aspen]

The CFS seems to have reflected the last 24 hours here. Today’s run is quite bearish with barely anything in September and one MDR storm in August. Yesterday’s run went berserk, with:
—A long-tracking MDR major in the second week of August (close call recurve)
—A second August MDR hurricane (also a recurve) between the 20th-25th
—Two MDR storms passing near the NE Caribbean within the first 8 days of September, as well as a giant front that keeps them away from the CONUS
—A Gulf major into Louisiana on September 8/9th
—Another 4 or 5 MDR systems in September, with the final two lasting into early October

Friday’s run seems excessively active, while today’s run seems way too inactive, unless that Canary Current cooling somehow shuts down the entire basin. The former could yield 200+ ACE while the latter might not even crack 100. I highly doubt we see a record-active MDR during ASO or a near record quiet September.

I guess this will be the theme of today on this thread. Do you have the link to CFS?

Here: https://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin ... RIOD=&WMO=

[skyline385]

The CFS seems to have reflected the last 24 hours here. Today’s run is quite bearish with barely anything in September and one MDR storm in August. Yesterday’s run went berserk, with:
—A long-tracking MDR major in the second week of August (close call recurve)
—A second August MDR hurricane (also a recurve) between the 20th-25th
—Two MDR storms passing near the NE Caribbean within the first 8 days of September, as well as a giant front that keeps them away from the CONUS
—A Gulf major into Louisiana on September 8/9th
—Another 4 or 5 MDR systems in September, with the final two lasting into early October

Friday’s run seems excessively active, while today’s run seems way too inactive, unless that Canary Current cooling somehow shuts down the entire basin. The former could yield 200+ ACE while the latter might not even crack 100. I highly doubt we see a record-active MDR during ASO or a near record quiet September.

Shouldn't be looking at storm numbers on the CFS for activity as its a climate model with 100-km grids, there could be entire systems in one of those grids.

Looking at the precipitation plots, Sept anomalies actually went up

[skyline385]

CFS September trend for the last 10 runs is concerning in particular

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1545789120441729025

[Cpv17]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1545789120441729025

Can you find the one for August like this?

[Stormybajan]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1545789120441729025

Lol ughhh... based on these NMME plots from Ben Noll and the CFS trends for September above, it basically looks like everyone in the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles,the entire caribbean, anyone who lives in the gulf, Florida, Bermuda and even the Cabo Verde Islands will have to keep their eyes peeled this year,...thats just my long winded way of saying EVERYONE needs to keep their guard UP for peak season because this one might be MEAN.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1545789120441729025

Lol ughhh... based on these NMME plots from Ben Noll and the CFS trends for September above, it basically looks like everyone in the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles,the entire caribbean, anyone who lives in the gulf, Florida, Bermuda and even the Cabo Verde Islands will have to keep their eyes peeled this year,...thats just my long winded way of saying EVERYONE needs to keep their guard UP for peak season because this one might be MEAN.

All I'm going say here is with such a potent Caribbean signal, we better hope that ridging is strong, or else we're gonna get storms that go through the Caribbean Sea but then turn northward, putting areas like the GoM CONUS and possibly even areas like Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola, and Florida under the gun.

[IsabelaWeather]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1545789120441729025

Lol ughhh... based on these NMME plots from Ben Noll and the CFS trends for September above, it basically looks like everyone in the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles,the entire caribbean, anyone who lives in the gulf, Florida, Bermuda and even the Cabo Verde Islands will have to keep their eyes peeled this year,...thats just my long winded way of saying EVERYONE needs to keep their guard UP for peak season because this one might be MEAN.

Yes, I am preparing here as well in PR. Looks like we have a few weeks left before we are entering the danger zone.

[skyline385]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1545834189567807488

[skyline385]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1545789120441729025

Can you find the one for August like this?

These plots were generated by Ben, maybe you can try asking him on Twitter for an August plot

[skyline385]

https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1545789120441729025

Lol ughhh... based on these NMME plots from Ben Noll and the CFS trends for September above, it basically looks like everyone in the Lesser Antilles, the Greater Antilles,the entire caribbean, anyone who lives in the gulf, Florida, Bermuda and even the Cabo Verde Islands will have to keep their eyes peeled this year,...thats just my long winded way of saying EVERYONE needs to keep their guard UP for peak season because this one might be MEAN.

All I'm going say here is with such a potent Caribbean signal, we better hope that ridging is strong, or else we're gonna get storms that go through the Caribbean Sea but then turn northward, putting areas like the GoM CONUS and possibly even areas like Jamaica, Cuba, Hispaniola, and Florida under the gun.

SEAS5 does show a strong ridge but the EURO could be just overdoing it as it does sometimes, best to expect something in the middle

[skyline385]

Interesting trend from the last 15 days, GEFS predicts the cooling will continue whereas EPS shows some heating of the MDR.

Also Alex finally updated his climo after that Twitter discussion about bust seasons, see that discussion was useful after all

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1546100064761815040




 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1546100076933783552

[SFLcane]

Folks, the shearing Tutt is likely to be no were to be found come early August. The doors are wide open for a strengthening TC.

[aspen]

Folks, the shearing Tutt is likely to be no were to be found come early August. The doors are wide open for a strengthening TC.

Unless a recurving typhoon pumps up one like Malakas did in September 2020. In a VP anomaly chart in one of the tweets cycloneye posted, there looks to be a Kelvin Wave going through the WPac in the first week of August. That could trigger some WPac development, but seeing how this year has gone so far, something capable of pumping a TUTT isn’t particularly likely. Still a slim possibility.