The first of many (most likely)

[tomboudreau]

Severe Thunderstorm watch has been issued for all of Northern Ohio and Southeast Michigan...including Detriot, Toledo, Cleveland, and Youngstown. Here is the write up from SPC. Stay safe everyone. Looks like a long night ahead. I will update when I can as things go downhill here in Western PA.

SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 943
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
150 PM EST WED NOV 12 2003

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST LOWER MICHIGAN
NORTHERN OHIO
LAKE ERIE

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 150 PM UNTIL
700 PM EST.

HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES
NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF JACKSON
MICHIGAN TO 30 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF YOUNGSTOWN OHIO.

REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE
TORNADOES.




DISCUSSION...VERY STRONG S/WV TROUGH WITH ASSOCIATED RAPIDLY
DEEPENING LOW OVER MI WILL MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS NRN OH VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON. COLD FRONT NOW MOVING ACROSS SWRN LOWER MI AND NRN IN
WILL INITIATE LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS. 50-60 KT OF SHEAR SUPPORT
PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT. POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED LOW TOPPED
SUPERCELLS/BRIEF TORNADO BUT GIVEN THE WEAK INSTABILITY PRIMARY
THREAT EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS.

AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 26050.


...HALES


Tom

[JCT777]

Incredible to think that this is happening in mid-November. Sounds more like May.

[tomboudreau]

Opps..double posted...sorry

[tomboudreau]

Watch number 2 for the day has now been issued for most of southern Ohio, eastern Indiana, a very little bit of West Virgina, and even smaller bit of Kentucky. This is a tornado watch. Here is the text from SPC...

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 944
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
320 PM EST WED NOV 12 2003

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTHEAST INDIANA
SOUTHERN OHIO

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 320 PM UNTIL
900 PM EST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS ALONG AND 60 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND
SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 55 MILES WEST OF DAYTON OHIO TO 25 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF ZANESVILLE OHIO.

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING
WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE
WARNINGS.


OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 943...


DISCUSSION...STORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP RAPIDLY VICINITY WRN OH/IN
BORDER AHEAD OF STRONG TROUGH AND VIGOROUS JET. WITH SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY AVAILABLE...ALONG WITH 200-300 J/KG HELICITY...TORNADIC
SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE AS THE ACTIVITY DEVELOPS RAPIDLY EWD ACROSS
SRN OH.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26050.


...HALES

Tom

[Colin]

I know...man...it does seem like spring. It should be cold and snowy by now..not warm and stormy!!! :o