BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Colin Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
...TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORMS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 79.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from South Santee River,
South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico Sound.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
located just inland over South Carolina near latitude 33.2 North,
longitude 79.5 West. Colin is moving toward the northeast near 8
mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
through Sunday. A turn toward the east-northeast with an increase
in forward speed is expected late Sunday and Sunday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Colin is expected to move
northeastward along or just inland of the South Carolina and North
Carolina coasts through Sunday, and then emerge over the western
Atlantic Ocean late Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days. Colin is expected to dissipate over the western Atlantic on
Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in South Carolina this morning and will spread northward to
the warning area in North Carolina this afternoon through Sunday.
RAINFALL: Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall
across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday
morning. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated
amounts up to 4 inches, is expected. This rainfall may result in
localized areas of flash flooding.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
A small area of low pressure formed along a surface trough just
offshore of Savannah, Georgia, yesterday morning and moved inland
across the Lowcountry of South Carolina by the evening. Deep
convection formed near the low center as it was moving inland and
has persisted and become better organized over the past 6 to 12
hours. In addition, surface observations and ASCAT data from
02-03 UTC indicated that an area of sustained 35-kt winds had
developed offshore and near the coast of South Carolina. As a
result, and rather unexpectedly, Tropical Storm Colin has formed
near the South Carolina coast, centered just inland a bit to the
northeast of Charleston.
Colin is moving northeastward just inland of the coast with a
motion of 045/7 kt. A low- to mid-level area of high pressure
is located over the western Atlantic, and Colin is expected to move
northeastward and then east-northeastward around that high during
the next 48 hours. The bulk of the available track guidance
suggests that Colin's center will move along or just inland of the
coasts of South and North Carolina during the next 36 hours, and the
NHC track forecast is generally a blend of the GFEX and HCCA
consensus aids.
Northwesterly shear of roughly 15-20 kt is expected to continue
affecting Colin during the next 36 hours or so, with that shear
increasing to 30 kt or more by 48 hours. As a result, strengthening
is not anticipated, and Colin is expected to remain a sheared
tropical storm while it moves across coastal areas of the Carolinas,
with tropical-storm-force winds primarily limited to the southeast
of the center. Colin is likely to dissipate over the western
Atlantic soon after 48 hours.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the northeastern coast of South Carolina this morning
and will spread northeastward within the warning area along the
North Carolina coast this afternoon into Sunday.
2. Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding
across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday
morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 33.2N 79.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 02/1800Z 33.9N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 03/0600Z 34.8N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 03/1800Z 35.7N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PAMLICO SOUND
48H 04/0600Z 36.8N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN
60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Colin Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
...TROPICAL STORM COLIN FORMS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH
CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA COASTS...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.2N 79.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1011 MB...29.86 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
A Tropical Storm Warning has been issued from South Santee River,
South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina, including Pamlico Sound.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* South Santee River, South Carolina, to Duck, North Carolina
* Pamlico Sound
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM EDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Colin was
located just inland over South Carolina near latitude 33.2 North,
longitude 79.5 West. Colin is moving toward the northeast near 8
mph (13 km/h), and this general motion is expected to continue
through Sunday. A turn toward the east-northeast with an increase
in forward speed is expected late Sunday and Sunday night. On the
forecast track, the center of Colin is expected to move
northeastward along or just inland of the South Carolina and North
Carolina coasts through Sunday, and then emerge over the western
Atlantic Ocean late Sunday.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days. Colin is expected to dissipate over the western Atlantic on
Monday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
mainly to the southeast of the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1011 mb (29.86 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area in South Carolina this morning and will spread northward to
the warning area in North Carolina this afternoon through Sunday.
RAINFALL: Colin will continue to produce locally heavy rainfall
across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday
morning. An additional 1 to 2 inches of rainfall, with isolated
amounts up to 4 inches, is expected. This rainfall may result in
localized areas of flash flooding.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 800 AM EDT.
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.
$$
Forecaster Berg
Tropical Storm Colin Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032022
500 AM EDT Sat Jul 02 2022
A small area of low pressure formed along a surface trough just
offshore of Savannah, Georgia, yesterday morning and moved inland
across the Lowcountry of South Carolina by the evening. Deep
convection formed near the low center as it was moving inland and
has persisted and become better organized over the past 6 to 12
hours. In addition, surface observations and ASCAT data from
02-03 UTC indicated that an area of sustained 35-kt winds had
developed offshore and near the coast of South Carolina. As a
result, and rather unexpectedly, Tropical Storm Colin has formed
near the South Carolina coast, centered just inland a bit to the
northeast of Charleston.
Colin is moving northeastward just inland of the coast with a
motion of 045/7 kt. A low- to mid-level area of high pressure
is located over the western Atlantic, and Colin is expected to move
northeastward and then east-northeastward around that high during
the next 48 hours. The bulk of the available track guidance
suggests that Colin's center will move along or just inland of the
coasts of South and North Carolina during the next 36 hours, and the
NHC track forecast is generally a blend of the GFEX and HCCA
consensus aids.
Northwesterly shear of roughly 15-20 kt is expected to continue
affecting Colin during the next 36 hours or so, with that shear
increasing to 30 kt or more by 48 hours. As a result, strengthening
is not anticipated, and Colin is expected to remain a sheared
tropical storm while it moves across coastal areas of the Carolinas,
with tropical-storm-force winds primarily limited to the southeast
of the center. Colin is likely to dissipate over the western
Atlantic soon after 48 hours.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area along the northeastern coast of South Carolina this morning
and will spread northeastward within the warning area along the
North Carolina coast this afternoon into Sunday.
2. Areas of heavy rainfall may result in localized flash flooding
across portions of coastal South and North Carolina through Sunday
morning.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 02/0900Z 33.2N 79.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
12H 02/1800Z 33.9N 78.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 03/0600Z 34.8N 77.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 03/1800Z 35.7N 75.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER PAMLICO SOUND
48H 04/0600Z 36.8N 72.9W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER ATLANTIC OCEAN
60H 04/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Berg