ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
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ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Only model runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Senobia wrote:What's the big turn dependent on, an approaching front?
No, a weakness in the high pressure ridge over east Texas.
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Any forecasts under my name are to be taken with a grain of salt. Get your best forecasts from the National Weather Service and National Hurricane Center.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
I'm a certified Advanced SKYWARN-trained spotter and am active on Twitter at @TravisCOSW, a social media partner of the NWS Austin-San Antonio office.
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
cycloneye wrote:https://i.imgur.com/nd7dBbK.png
These models are quite a bit different than the short term mesoscale models. Those have landfall much further east.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
GFS doesn't do much with it, but it does look like we would get some rain out of it. Anyone have the latest GFS rainfall forecast?
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- captainbarbossa19
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
12z Euro has the heaviest rainfall from Matagorda County NE to the Golden Triangle. I think this is pretty realistic. The only part that doesn't make much sense is that it shows the heaviest rain in Mississippi. I think it will be closer to the coast.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
I live about 70 mi NW of San Antonio. My weather station has recorded only 2.93" of rain since Jan 1. We really need it as we are in an Exceptional Drought classification with no lawn watering.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
captainbarbossa19 wrote:12z Euro has the heaviest rainfall from Matagorda County NE to the Golden Triangle. I think this is pretty realistic. The only part that doesn't make much sense is that it shows the heaviest rain in Mississippi. I think it will be closer to the coast.
The Euro definitely shows more moisture associated with this than the GFS does. The GFS keeps most of the rain south of Victoria.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
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- captainbarbossa19
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Till it flips back West and South again.
Maybe they'll split the difference in the end.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Turning around the ridge could potentially allow ever so slightly more time over water.
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- captainbarbossa19
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Either Tropical Tidbits is having issues or the hurricane models did not run at 12z for some reason. I can only find the 06z runs.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
wxman22 wrote:https://i.ibb.co/9qTb95d/95-L-trabcks-latest.png
That looks fine to me, as long as those time markers stay that far apart!
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- captainbarbossa19
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
18z HRRR and NAM 3km both show some very heavy rainfall totals possible starting Friday morning. HRRR has an area just offshore of 20+ inches. The NAM shows almost 15 inches in Matagorda County. The trend is more rain for inland areas.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
Is anybody familiar enough with the ICON to say why heavy rain accumulations always seem to be mapped as stopping at the coast?
Thanks!
Thanks!
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: INVEST 95L - Models
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