Will any other storms form before July 1?

[emeraldislenc]

What are your thoughts?

[kevin]

Yes, the MDR storm which is currently in the models. I don't know how strong it will get (climo would suggest anything above a TS is unlikely), but I do think it will form.

[wxman57]

Most likely, no. I still think that Bonnie will most likely form along a frontal boundary off the SE U.S. Coast over the next few weeks, though. Nothing in the MDR over the next few weeks. Too much shear.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Leaning towards no.

[Category5Kaiju]

Sinking air should return over the EPAC by this month's end, and assuming that MDR system forms (maybe as wxman said, the frontal system off the East Coast too), I can't see why not

[toad strangler]

So crazy 2004 didn't get "A" until 7/31

[CFLHurricane]

No, I think we’re in a lull for a bit.

[chaser1]

Nope.... even though there's a good lookin' wave out east.

[captainbarbossa19]

Models say that we very well could have Bonnie before July 1st now.

[Hurricane Mike]

That wave is trying already.

[Category5Kaiju]

Dang, kudos to those whose answer was no. Never in a million years would I have ever expected a PTC to remain a PTC (let alone a system that many models were once very bullish on) for such a stubbornly long period of time, let alone 95L also failing to develop.

This year definitely feels like a contrast to 2020 and 2021 in how not that many early season storms are happening. Of course, that probably means nothing, considering how this year still looks to have the potential to be very active later on

[FireRat]

Dang, kudos to those whose answer was no. Never in a million years would I have ever expected a PTC to remain a PTC (let alone a system that many models were once very bullish on) for such a stubbornly long period of time, let alone 95L also failing to develop.

This year definitely feels like a contrast to 2020 and 2021 in how not that many early season storms are happening. Of course, that probably means nothing, considering how this year still looks to have the potential to be very active later on

Yup, I also have a feeling that this whole PTC thing and the significantly slower start to the season might end up munching off some named storm numbers down the line, so having another season with 20+ systems might actually be tougher to reach than perviously thought.

[aspen]

Dang, kudos to those whose answer was no. Never in a million years would I have ever expected a PTC to remain a PTC (let alone a system that many models were once very bullish on) for such a stubbornly long period of time, let alone 95L also failing to develop.

This year definitely feels like a contrast to 2020 and 2021 in how not that many early season storms are happening. Of course, that probably means nothing, considering how this year still looks to have the potential to be very active later on

Yup, I also have a feeling that this whole PTC thing and the significantly slower start to the season might end up munching off some named storm numbers down the line, so having another season with 20+ systems might actually be tougher to reach than perviously thought.

No way we’re breaking 20 NS at this rate. Not only has there not been enough systems in the early season, but it seems like there will be less subtropical shorties this year; both Alex and soon-to-be-Bonnie have been very quick, but that’s because they waited until the last minute to develop, and both came from tropical origins. If it wasn’t for shorties, 2019 and 2021 would not have had so many NS.

A season like 2017 with a NS count in the high teens and higher ACE per storm seems more probable now, if indicators are right about a MDR-heavy year.

[Teban54]

Dang, kudos to those whose answer was no. Never in a million years would I have ever expected a PTC to remain a PTC (let alone a system that many models were once very bullish on) for such a stubbornly long period of time, let alone 95L also failing to develop.

This year definitely feels like a contrast to 2020 and 2021 in how not that many early season storms are happening. Of course, that probably means nothing, considering how this year still looks to have the potential to be very active later on

Yup, I also have a feeling that this whole PTC thing and the significantly slower start to the season might end up munching off some named storm numbers down the line, so having another season with 20+ systems might actually be tougher to reach than perviously thought.

No way we’re breaking 20 NS at this rate. Not only has there not been enough systems in the early season, but it seems like there will be less subtropical shorties this year; both Alex and soon-to-be-Bonnie have been very quick, but that’s because they waited until the last minute to develop, and both came from tropical origins. If it wasn’t for shorties, 2019 and 2021 would not have had so many NS.

A season like 2017 with a NS count in the high teens and higher ACE per storm seems more probable now, if indicators are right about a MDR-heavy year.

Especially given the anomalously cooler subtopics now, which favors activity in the deep tropics.