ATL: ALEX - Post-Tropical
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
This thing is seriously struggling. Keeps going through the “oh is this the actual center” only to see its a mesovort around a broad and very ill-defined center. Thinking it never gets a name at this point. Alex will have to wait until later I guess (July or so)
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
I would certainly be very intrigued to see if this PTC fails to get a name, from my understanding this only happened once in the Atlantic before (in 2017)? Also would be quite interesting considering its 90/90 chances of development, meaning it somehow ended up going for that 10% lol
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- skyline385
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
So what does NHC do with the PTC designation once its done crossing land and still isnt a TS or a STS
Does it drop back to a 90%/90% invest?
Does it drop back to a 90%/90% invest?
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
skyline385 wrote:So what does NHC do with the PTC designation once its done crossing land and still isnt a TS or a STS
Does it drop back to a 90%/90% invest?
Bermuda is under a watch so no it still remains a PTC.
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- skyline385
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
MarioProtVI wrote:skyline385 wrote:So what does NHC do with the PTC designation once its done crossing land and still isnt a TS or a STS
Does it drop back to a 90%/90% invest?
Bermuda is under a watch so no it still remains a PTC.
You are right, they added Bermuda under TS watch at the 11AM advisory.
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- skyline385
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
When a storm has flooded your streets but you need to take the dog out
https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1533171490862112768
https://twitter.com/ericblake12/status/1533171490862112768
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- AtlanticWind
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
PTC1 is getting better organised as we speak, I think we will have a Tropical Storm very soon
Maybe the upcoming recon data will be enough to classify later tonight.
Maybe the upcoming recon data will be enough to classify later tonight.
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- galaxy401
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
Still a 90% chance to develop. I still think we'll see Alex from this. Just needs a more defined-ish center.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
Feeder band, lol causing issues in broward county this evening
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
AtlanticWind wrote:PTC1 is getting better organised as we speak, I think we will have a Tropical Storm very soon
Maybe the upcoming recon data will be enough to classify later tonight.
Yeah. Some blowup closer to the center. I’ve been more looking at the effects than the storm itself, but I think earlier advisories had it to TS by later tomorrow where now NHC is saying possibly 6-12 hours. It’s also coming up on 29/30N which could indicate that this season could again feature at least some storms getting stronger into the subtropics which obviously isn’t good news if you live on the Gulf or SE Coasts.
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
AdamFirst wrote:Multiple videos on social media of stranded cars and flooded streets in downtown Miami, with still more heavy rain on the way.
This is what the storm was always going to be about. The "slop" so heavily discounted by posters on this forum has real world impacts.
https://twitter.com/MFR_PIO/status/1532977245656174593?t=jyGX6PXoDojynBapUPVG2Q&s=19
The rain was very very real and flooding is never something to take lightly. It can cause significant delays, property damage, injuries and even deaths. So, was this a significant "weather" event for parts of South Florida? Yes it was. Well, In the context of an organized tropical cyclone however referring PTC1 slop.... well that would just be an insult to slop. It was akin to hamburger meat without the binding ingrediants of crushed crackers, eggs, etc. It was a CAG without any swag. It was a shear pushover for the GOM upper level winds - 2nd team.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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- skyline385
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
CoCoRaHS precipitation map, the rain estimates were on point.
Last edited by skyline385 on Sat Jun 04, 2022 9:10 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
Sciencerocks wrote:Well, there's your well defined LLC!
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/558/e76h70.png
Would that be enough to warrant a TC though? As far as I can tell, we've had storms like Colin 2016 happen before..so..
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
Sciencerocks wrote:Well, there's your well defined LLC!
https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img921/558/e76h70.png
Or maybe a new one closer to convection?
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
Plane found winds at flight level in the 60's range.
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- KirbyDude25
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
Recon found 72kt flight-level winds (away from the center, but still)
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New Jersey, Rutgers '27
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Re: ATL: ONE- Potential Tropical Cyclone
Still just looks like a strong non-tropical low. The plane had found two separate “LLCs” within the much broader circulation.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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