ATL: ALEX - Post-Tropical

[skyline385]

Wait so now there's a chance that PTC1 won't become even a NS? I thought the NHC was still anticipating that to happen at some point?

The NHC seems very hesitant this year in naming storms unless there is concrete proof for it and i personally like it.

[jlauderdal]

Power outage at my place, 20 mph winds did it, heavy rain

[Blown Away]

Power outage at my place, 20 mph winds did it, heavy rain

So annoying, sorry… I’m prepared for gusts up to 28 mph!

[Blown Away]

Somewhat of a better presentation on the IR and it seems any COC is under the SW convection blob, but likely not at the surface. I think TS Alex at next advisory.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[ChrisH-UK]

PTC One is spinning up low level vortices producing swirls with in it's circulation.

[Jr0d]

Key West is living up to the TS warning. 48mph gust at the airport, and 57 mph gust at Sand Key, approx 8 miles offshore. South winds now...was a bit more southeast earlier today.

Unfortunately I am out of town so I cant say from first hand if it feels like storm conditions or if these were isolated gusts. Looks like close to 2" of rain has fallen so far. I did not take any extra storm precautions before leaving town...not worried though. It takes near record rainfall for flooding to be a problem at my place.

[jlauderdal]

Power outage at my place, 20 mph winds did it, heavy rain

So annoying, sorry… I’m prepared for gusts up to 28 mph!

If you have FPL, 28 will do it for sure. I was ready for it, not my first tropical system as you know. I heard the transformer blow down the street.

[aspen]

Wait so now there's a chance that PTC1 won't become even a NS? I thought the NHC was still anticipating that to happen at some point?

It won’t be the first time a PTC failed to become a named storm. One of the first PTCs, in 2017, got up to 90/90 and nearly stole the name Irma before becoming post-tropical. There was also a failed PTC in the EPac last year, I believe. Or it was in 2020.

[CyclonicFury]

It's too early to assume 01L isn't going to become a named storm. NHC hasn't lowered the chances at all. After Florida, 01L should receive a boost in upper divergence that will allow for some deepening. Even though it likely won't be fully tropical in nature, still may be enough for it to get named if it doesn't become Alex within the next 24 hours.

[skyline385]

Looking better now

[Nimbus]

PTC One is spinning up low level voticies producing swirls with in it's circulation.

https://imgur.com/9kA9Xmp

I was waiting for recon to see if there was a center reformation under the convection but the dry shear on the western side of the circulation appears to be doing its job.

[Blown Away]

Lots of rain and maybe we can see some low level circulation feature.

https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... conditions

[tolakram]

live floater loop https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-200-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

saved loop

[Blown Away]

live floater loop https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-200-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

saved loop
https://i.imgur.com/j1ewpIm.gif

That’s a cool look, the COC is elongated.

[tolakram]

Which one? All these are rotating around a giant circulation.

[SFLcane]

Power outage at my place, 20 mph winds did it, heavy rain

Good luck with that there’s absolutely no pressure Gradient. Thus far these wannabe rain bands are meh with mostly light to moderate rain. I am not sure those rainfall totals might come to pass. Well see.

It’s June

[Weatherboy1]

My report from here in northern Palm Beach County is that it is … raining. And raining some more. Also, raining. Lol. But seriously, nothing too heavy and no wind. Just steady rain. Don’t expect much more out of this one unless “Alex” quickly reorganizes/gets a well-defined center

[wxman57]

There are at least 3 little swirls rotating around a broad low. I see only 26 kts at Key West, by the way. The TS warning is for sustained wind to 34+ kts, not gusts. I doubt this system will produce any 1-min 34kt/39 mph winds, just gusts. I'm confident it will become Alex, most likely once it passes Florida on Saturday evening or Sunday morning. The NHC may get a little liberal and name it tomorrow morning, even though the 35kt wind they found was a straight-line gust in a squall. Doesn't matter if it is named or not, the effects in south FL will be exactly the same. Rain and some wind gusts 40-50 mph.

[nativefloridian]

My report from here in northern Palm Beach County is that it is … raining. And raining some more. Also, raining. Lol. But seriously, nothing too heavy and no wind. Just steady rain. Don’t expect much more out of this one unless “Alex” quickly reorganizes/gets a well-defined center

Same here in Southwest Broward County. Rainy all day, sometimes heavier than others, but very happy that this has been the status quo so far as I've got premature avocados on my tree that I don't want to lose!

[nativefloridian]

My report from here in northern Palm Beach County is that it is … raining. And raining some more. Also, raining. Lol. But seriously, nothing too heavy and no wind. Just steady rain. Don’t expect much more out of this one unless “Alex” quickly reorganizes/gets a well-defined center

Same here in Southwest Broward County. Rainy all day, sometimes heavier than others, but very happy that this has been the status quo so far as I've got premature avocados on my tree that I don't want to lose!