ATL: ALEX - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

[youtube]https://youtu.be/RS8CifxnaMo[/youtube]

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/tropicaltidbits/status/1532396159829827591

[cycloneye]

Maybe? The plane will find out.

 https://twitter.com/MDR_Titan/status/1532409120296517632




 https://twitter.com/MDR_Titan/status/1532410540445814786

[Aric Dunn]

There is quite a bit of wobbling going on with the vort over land.. that mid level feature on radar may have worked to the surface causing an interaction with the other vort. it is rotating around the larger gyre pretty quickly. Could swing all the way to the north of the Yucatan before losing some of the momentum at which time it may take hold.

[skyline385]

Some pretty impressive convection going for all the shear it's dealing with.

[NDG]

Surface CoC appears to still be inland with the MLC offshore, IMO.

[Ian2401]

LLC is definitely still inland or just off Yucatán. You see this all the time with highly sheared storms with an apparent circulation on radar but just ends up being a displaced MLC. The center may however reform near this MLC, but as of now it’s definitely still inland

[AutoPenalti]

Surface CoC appears to still be inland with the MLC offshore, IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/BjaTAHJ.gif

Is that a mesovort at the end of the frame near 85.5, 21.5?

[Aric Dunn]

Surface CoC appears to still be inland with the MLC offshore, IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/BjaTAHJ.gif

no doubt the larger surface circ is inland but that does not mean another meso vort has not work down with the mid level feature causing some interaction and the erratic motion the last hour or two.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Jun 2 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Near the Yucatan Peninsula and Southeastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located over the northeastern portion
of the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and Yucatan Peninsula. Despite strong upper-level
winds, this system is likely to become a tropical depression or
tropical storm while it moves slowly northeastward over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea and southeastern Gulf of Mexico during
the next day or two. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys,
the Florida Peninsula, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor
the progress of this system, and tropical storm watches or warnings
will likely be required for some of these areas later today.

Regardless of development, areas of heavy rainfall are likely
across portions of the Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba during
the next day or so, spreading across southern and central Florida
and the Florida Keys Friday and Friday night, and the northwestern
Bahamas on Saturday. These heavy rains could cause scattered to
numerous flash floods across South Florida and the Florida Keys.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[psyclone]

Looks like a typical early season disjointed rain bomb. If the center reforms under the convection, the system would probably tack right and the northern extent of big QPF totals in Florida would likely sink south. Nevertheless it looks like a washout for our south florida friends tomorrow. I'm expecting good beach & pool weather here as the bay area looks to most likely reside on the dry side of the tracks..

[Sciencerocks]

[NDG]

Surface CoC appears to still be inland with the MLC offshore, IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/BjaTAHJ.gif

Is that a mesovort at the end of the frame near 85.5, 21.5?

Yes, you can see it rotating around the main circulation, it formed from the main area of convection.

[skyline385]

Some random 35-37 kts unflagged SFMR

[wxman57]

Some 35-37 kts unflagged SFMR

No doubt that the squalls could easily produce straight-line winds even higher than that. Tropical waves can have squalls that produce 50kt winds, but with no circulation, it's just a disturbance. It'll be Alex tomorrow. Don't focus on the center for any FL impacts. Squalls will extend 200 miles or so east of the weak, exposed center by "landfall". By the time the center reaches the coast Saturday afternoon, the rain in Florida will be just about over.

[cycloneye]

URNT15 KNHC 021752
AF305 01AAA INVEST HDOB 13 20220602
174300 2200N 08936W 9888 00151 0060 +245 +222 033020 021 024 000 00
174330 2158N 08936W 9887 00155 0061 +243 +220 052019 022 025 000 00
174400 2157N 08936W 9889 00150 0060 +241 +210 053023 025 025 000 00
174430 2155N 08936W 9890 00149 0060 +241 +216 042019 021 023 000 00
174500 2154N 08936W 9888 00152 0060 +243 +219 044018 020 023 000 00
174530 2152N 08935W 9888 00151 0060 +242 +217 042020 021 024 000 00
174600 2151N 08934W 9888 00151 0060 +240 +219 040020 020 023 000 03
174630 2149N 08934W 9889 00150 0060 +240 +216 044021 022 023 000 00
174700 2147N 08933W 9888 00151 0060 +240 +218 042020 021 022 000 00
174730 2146N 08933W 9888 00150 0059 +240 +218 042020 021 021 000 00
174800 2144N 08932W 9888 00150 0058 +240 +218 040020 020 021 000 00
174830 2143N 08932W 9888 00149 0058 +240 +219 037019 020 021 000 00
174900 2141N 08931W 9888 00147 0057 +240 +224 034017 018 020 000 00
174930 2140N 08931W 9888 00147 0057 +240 +223 033018 018 020 000 00
175000 2138N 08931W 9888 00149 0056 +240 +221 033019 020 021 000 00
175030 2136N 08931W 9888 00147 0056 +240 +222 031018 020 021 000 00
175100 2135N 08931W 9889 00145 0054 +240 +223 028019 019 018 000 00
175130 2133N 08930W 9888 00145 0054 +238 +224 026018 019 018 001 00
175200 2131N 08930W 9888 00145 0054 +236 +225 026017 018 018 000 00
175230 2130N 08929W 9880 00151 0053 +235 +225 032015 016 016 000 00

[AutoPenalti]

Some 35-37 kts unflagged SFMR

No doubt that the squalls could easily produce straight-line winds even higher than that. Tropical waves can have squalls that produce 50kt winds, but with no circulation, it's just a disturbance. It'll be Alex tomorrow. Don't focus on the center for any FL impacts. Squalls will extend 200 miles or so east of the weak, exposed center by "landfall". By the time the center reaches the coast Saturday afternoon, the rain in Florida will be just about over.

If the suppose center relocates within the deep convection it's possible winds can increase a little more.

[Aric Dunn]

Looks like a quickt little center jump straight north offshore of the llc that is inland. you can see it on radar starting to wrap some convection around. and on satellite the inland llv/vort is elongatedto to the north.

Recon may very well find a wind shift right there as it flies through. wont be very well defined as it is just getting started.

https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/tools/GUI/vi ... i_gif.php#

[toad strangler]

 http://twitter.com/noaasatellitepa/status/1532424449353457669

[NDG]

Some 35-37 kts unflagged SFMR

No doubt that the squalls could easily produce straight-line winds even higher than that. Tropical waves can have squalls that produce 50kt winds, but with no circulation, it's just a disturbance. It'll be Alex tomorrow. Don't focus on the center for any FL impacts. Squalls will extend 200 miles or so east of the weak, exposed center by "landfall". By the time the center reaches the coast Saturday afternoon, the rain in Florida will be just about over.

If the suppose center relocates within the deep convection it's possible winds can increase a little more.

It happens a lot with these early season sheared systems, I remember many times the recon finding a meso type new LLC and finding stronger winds closer to the deep convection. GFS hints to that happening over the next couple of days.