EPAC: AGATHA - Remnants

[skyline385]

Lmao flagged SFMR of 150 kts

[CrazyC83]

382
URPN15 KNHC 292010
AF306 0101E AGATHA HDOB 26 20220529
200030 1400N 09838W 7022 02884 9795 +117 +107 211101 103 086 013 03
200100 1402N 09836W 6951 02990 9848 +091 //// 194104 107 084 015 01
200130 1405N 09835W 6978 02992 //// +085 //// 180094 102 074 032 01
200200 1407N 09833W 6977 03022 //// +080 //// 170084 092 074 042 05
200230 1409N 09832W 6980 03039 //// +084 //// 166078 083 062 027 05
200300 1410N 09831W 6963 03077 //// +073 //// 162070 080 056 013 05
200330 1412N 09830W 6952 03102 //// +069 //// 157065 068 048 016 01
200400 1414N 09829W 6949 03111 //// +067 //// 152057 060 045 014 05
200430 1416N 09830W 6969 03094 //// +076 //// 144054 056 /// /// 05
200500 1416N 09832W 6979 03075 //// +074 //// 136053 054 047 021 01
200530 1415N 09833W 6974 03075 //// +072 //// 141059 059 051 022 01
200600 1414N 09835W 6975 03067 //// +076 //// 141065 070 054 023 01
200630 1413N 09836W 6982 03039 //// +077 //// 141070 073 055 024 05
200700 1412N 09838W 6986 03013 //// +078 //// 133068 073 059 052 05
200730 1411N 09839W 6987 02974 //// +084 //// 119085 093 149 068 05
200800 1410N 09841W 6944 02960 //// +095 //// 109076 093 142 071 05
200830 1408N 09842W 6937 02921 9667 +130 //// 078029 056 113 063 05
200900 1406N 09842W 7001 02826 9639 +185 +100 352011 023 036 006 03
200930 1404N 09842W 6955 02880 9656 +160 +099 275010 014 031 003 03
201000 1403N 09841W 6970 02869 9672 +150 +108 259029 037 042 003 03
$$
;

Ignore the last SFMR readings. Extrapolated pressure 964 mb with still some wind.

[cycloneye]

Bingo, found it.

[CrazyC83]

Lmao flagged SFMR of 150 kts

Probably hit a micro-vortex.

[aspen]

Flagged Cat 5 SMFR readings, likely due to the very high rain rates of 65-80 mm/hr.

[skyline385]

That's a pretty violent core

[Teban54]

Seems to me like the eye is clearing out, may be RI. I am actually wondering why the intensity guidance from TropicalTidbits is showing an inital windspeed of 90 knots. Is this wrong or does it know something more than we do? (Does anyone know how to upload a image from your file directory?)

And as this is my first post, I'll very quickly introduce myself. I'm 19 years old and from The Netherlands. I work as a meteorologist at one of the main weather sites here, and I've been interested in hurricanes for years already.

Welcome! Here is a post on uploading images. TL;DR: Use a third-party image platform (I prefer imgur).

[skyline385]

Looks like that 965mb fix was pretty close to the eye

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Got some nice vortical hot tower action ongoing.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1531009306027507712

[Jelmergraaff]

In the last couple of frames, it appears to me that there's some dry-air intrusion in the NW-quadrant or some moderate northwesterly windshear (not sure which one). All the other quadrants look quite healthy in terms of convection/outflow.

I'll see what Agatha will look like tomorrow morning local time (around 1 AM EST).

[InfernoFlameCat]

Yes, this little bit of shear could help prevent an outer band from wrapping around and choking off the core. It could be a rare case of beneficial shear.

[cycloneye]

110 mph.

BULLETIN
Hurricane Agatha Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
400 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

...AGATHA ALMOST A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN DETERIORATING IN SOUTHERN
MEXICO TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.1N 98.7W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SW OF PUERTO ANGEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...110 MPH...175 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 1 MPH...2 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

Hurricane Agatha Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP012022
400 PM CDT Sun May 29 2022

Satellite images indicate that Agatha continues to intensify at a
rapid pace. The hurricane has a compact inner core and an eye
feature has recently become apparent in geostationary satellite
data. Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 5.0/90 kt at
18Z. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating
Agatha and so far found maximum flight-level winds of 107 kt at 700
mb and maximum SFMR winds of about 90 kt. Based on that data, the
initial intensity is increased to 95 kt, which is just below major
hurricane strength, and the minimum pressure is estimated to be 964
mb.

The hurricane has not moved much during the past several hours, with
the latest initial motion estimated to be a slow and erratic 045/1
kt. The models agree that a more steady northeastward motion should
commence very soon, and that motion is expected to bring the core of
Agatha to the coast of southern Mexico Monday afternoon or evening.
The NHC track forecast has been shifted a little to the east of the
previous one based on the more eastward initial position.

Agatha has strengthened at an impressive rate of 45 kt over the past
24 hours, and it likely will intensify a little more as it is
expected to remain in generally favorable conditions until it
reaches the coast of Mexico. However, there is a chance of an
eyewall replacement cycle that could cause the intensity of the
hurricane to fluctuate. After landfall, rapid weakening is forecast
and Agatha is expected to dissipate over the rugged terrain of
southern Mexico on Tuesday. The NHC intensity forecast is similar
to the previous one and follows the HCCA and IVCN consensus aids
through landfall.

Key Messages:

1. Extremely dangerous coastal flooding from storm surge
accompanied by large and destructive waves is expected near and the
east of where Agatha makes landfall.

2. Life-threatening hurricane-force winds are expected in portions
of the hurricane warning area in southern Mexico on Monday, with
tropical storm conditions beginning there tonight or early Monday.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm warning
area on Monday.

3. Heavy rains associated with Agatha will develop over portions of
southern Mexico later today and continue through Tuesday. This will
pose a threat of potentially life-threatening flash flooding and
mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/2100Z 14.1N 98.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 14.5N 98.2W 105 KT 120 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 15.2N 97.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 31/0600Z 16.0N 96.1W 70 KT 80 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/1800Z 17.1N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 01/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Really worried about the continuous eastward shifts of the storm and forecast. Such shifts push the core of the storm closer and closer to the port of Salina Cruz and the relatively populated area surrounding it and Laguna Superior (~500,000 inhabitants). This eastward trend also give it more time over water, which might both allow for further intensification and the time for EWRCs. While the storm going elsewhere in Oaxaca is not ideal, more and more people will be put into the path of the center as it inches further east. (It also increases the very small likelihood of Agatha's LLC surviving the trek, but that's not the point.)

Here's hoping that the dry air driven by the shear manages to disrupt this thing as it gets closer to land.

[aspen]

Recon is leaving after just one pass

[skyline385]

That core looks very exposed now

[Kingarabian]

That core looks very exposed now

https://i.imgur.com/FMkmBAc.png

Core is intact. ATMS has pretty bad resolution so take it with a grain of salt.

[Kingarabian]

Recent AMSR2 pass shows a very strong and very small eyewall.

[skyline385]

That core looks very exposed now

https://i.imgur.com/FMkmBAc.png

Core is intact. ATMS has pretty bad resolution so take it with a grain of salt.

Thanks for confirming, I was comparing it with earlier scans and it did look low resolution to me.

[Yellow Evan]

Recon only doing one pass is really weird ngl. Even in this basin they usually do 2-3.