WPAC: INVEST 98W

[Hayabusa]

Invest for possible Chaba is here

98W INVEST 220427 0600 3.4N 121.5E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

The average peak intensity of the name Chaba is 140 knots. It would be hella crappy if this becomes Chaba but a TS only.

[wxman57]

Slim shot at development. GFS is the only model indicating anything. It's the new Canadian model after recent "upgrades" in that it now develops everything.

[Hayabusa]

Now low

ABPW10 PGTW 271330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/271330Z-280600ZAPR2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
5.25N 121.07E, APPROXIMATELY 415 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF PUERTO
PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED ENHANCED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
STRONG DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A VERY BROAD LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS IS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10KTS), VERY WARM (31C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS), AND FAIR EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE INVEST 98W WILL DEVELOP TO WARNING CRITERIA
AS IT TRACKS NORTHWEST TOWARD VIETNAM IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA OVER
THE NEXT 72-96 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE
NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.

[Hayabusa]

Remains low, latest GFS still makes just a TS out of this, I'd really dislike it if this becomes a struggling Chaba.

ABPW10 PGTW 280600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/280600Z-290600ZAPR2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.25N 121.07E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 116.0E, APPROXIMATELY
205 NM NORTH OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; ROBUST OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT INVEST 98W WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD VIETNAM IN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.

[dexterlabio]

I'd rather see this staying disorganized than getting named. I also don't want to break the streak of intense typhoons named Chaba. I am willing to wait until June to see Chaba as an out-to-sea Cat4/5 typhoon.

[Hayabusa]

I'd rather see this staying disorganized than getting named. I also don't want to break the streak of intense typhoons named Chaba. I am willing to wait until June to see Chaba as an out-to-sea Cat4/5 typhoon.

Unless the GFS is BS'ing again. If a named storm is really inevitable I'd rather the circulation that's about to form near Palau be Chaba than 98W.

[Hurricane2021]

it seems that this system will not form. Hopefully, Chaba will be a strong typhoon like its ancestors