Remains low, latest GFS still makes just a TS out of this, I'd really dislike it if this becomes a struggling Chaba.
ABPW10 PGTW 280600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/280600Z-290600ZAPR2022//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 5.25N 121.07E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.6N 116.0E, APPROXIMATELY
205 NM NORTH OF PUERTO PRINCESA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF A BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT DEFINED BY; ROBUST OUTFLOW
ALOFT, LOW (10-15KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY WARM (29-30C) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT INVEST 98W WILL
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD VIETNAM IN THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1010 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.