Texas Spring 2022

[Iceresistance]

Big Joe B is saying that next week is looking really bad.

 https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1511705441172082688

[Iceresistance]

Take this forecast with Mike Ventrice with a Grain of Salt, but he's worried too.

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1511687245752844298




It appears that April 13th does have a very high ceiling though.

[Ntxw]

Now it's Monday and Tuesday with a 15% risk area for DFW.....

Is it looking like major outbreak or just April severe weather?

It's likely a major outbreak but where is to be determined. Usually you get one or two big day each spring that can be a candidate for strong moderate or possible high risk, this coming system might be it. It's a more classic tornado alley outbreak potential. But it may be more limited if timing is not perfect.

[cheezyWXguy]

Now it's Monday and Tuesday with a 15% risk area for DFW.....

Is it looking like major outbreak or just April severe weather?

It's likely a major outbreak but where is to be determined. Usually you get one or two big day each spring that can be a candidate for strong moderate or possible high risk, this coming system might be it. It's a more classic tornado alley outbreak potential. But it may be more limited if timing is not perfect.

For once, timing doesn’t seem to be a huge factor to me, with that huge trough sitting in place for 2-3 days. It seems like whatever combination of shear, moisture, and forcing will be in place across the plains and storms will initiate where and when instability is sufficient each day. To me, the biggest question marks are what the characteristics of the trough and any associated shortwaves will be, as that would determine where capping and/or the most favorable shear for tornadoes will be

[ElectricStorm]

Take this forecast with Mike Ventrice with a Grain of Salt, but he's worried too.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1511687245752844298?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

It appears that April 13th does have a very high ceiling though.

Luckily his program generally goes down as we get closer to the events. His 8 day forecast for 4/4 in TX had a pink area (high risk equivalent) but was enhanced by the day of. It's been like that for most of them.
That being said, next week certainly has some big potential, but there's more than just the big trough. Capping and timing are the big ones that could be up in the air. Moisture and instability shouldn't be a problem.

[Iceresistance]

Take this forecast with Mike Ventrice with a Grain of Salt, but he's worried too.

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1511687245752844298?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

It appears that April 13th does have a very high ceiling though.

Luckily his program generally goes down as we get closer to the events. His 8 day forecast for 4/4 in TX had a pink area (high risk equivalent) but was enhanced by the day of. It's been like that for most of them.
That being said, next week certainly has some big potential, but there's more than just the big trough. Capping and timing are the big ones that could be up in the air. Moisture and instability shouldn't be a problem.

SPC did say that there could be severe weather chances on the 10th appears to be capped.

[Brent]

Local TV met here

[bubba hotep]

Awesome spring day out there today!

[bubba hotep]

For next week, I question quality of moisture return.

[gpsnowman]

Awesome spring day out there today!

With another two days to come. Enjoy these days while we can. Humidity will return with some rain and there is a good chance of a big snowstorm in the central part of the US later in April. I would imagine some early season baseball games will be postponed due to snow and cold to start the season.

[ElectricStorm]

Current thoughts for next week:
Mon 4/11: Should see severe storms across the area. My early guess is that this is the least active of the 3 days, but it's still gonna have some potential. Especially if moisture return can get just a little bit better than models have it right now.

Tues 4/12: This is actually the one that has most of my attention right now. Good moisture return, great instability, and what looks to be great timing (as of right now at least) for the potential for significant severe weather across the area. Right now it would most likely be east of the I-35 corridor, but most of the time the trough ends up moving slower than forecast, so I wouldn't be surprised if we see some slight west shifts over the next several days. Still way too far out for any specifics on location and max potential but this one certainly has my attention.

Wed 4/13: A huge amount of uncertainty with this one. There's gonna be severe weather somewhere, but we won't know for sure until several days from now. Deterministic GFS runs shifted the location of the low/trough 1500 miles in one run. So yeah they're all over the place. For this range, using ensembles is much better and so far they all seem to be east of our area (TX/OK). That being said, west shifts usually happen and I think we could end up with something here in the plains, like I said it's gonna take several days before we can talk about any kind of specifics. Definitely doesn't help when people on social media are using terms like "monster outbreak" and "potential historic event" 8 days out, I wish they would stop doing that...

Long ways out for sure still a lot of uncertainties but we'll likely be dealing with some sort of severe weather next week, especially Mon-Tues. Personally I don't think it's anything to get too worried about yet. If we get to the weekend and it's still looking big then we can talk about a potentially bigger threat. Definitely gotta watch it though. Stay tuned...

[Brent]

Awesome spring day out there today!

With another two days to come. Enjoy these days while we can. Humidity will return with some rain and there is a good chance of a big snowstorm in the central part of the US later in April. I would imagine some early season baseball games will be postponed due to snow and cold to start the season.

The 12z GFS has snow here on Easter

[bubba hotep]

This next system doesn't look to bring much rainfall, esp. for areas West of I35. Hopefully, we will see that trend the other way or it's going to suck to see such a large Western trough and the majority of the rainfall to be in Arkansas and Louisiana. Eastern areas of Texas should see some continued improvement but not big-time rain totals, which could almost eliminate drought in some areas.

[bubba hotep]

Wow, it's windy out there! Seeing some gust reports above 50 mph!

[dpep4]

Wow, it's windy out there! Seeing some gust reports above 50 mph!

Le Mistral has been driving everyone crazy in FW today.

[bubba hotep]

MC KINNEY,TX (TKI) ASOS reports gust of 51 knots (58.7 mph) from WNW @ 2153Z -- KTKI 072153Z 30029G51KT 10SM FEW120 19/M08 A3011 RMK AO2 PK WND 31051/2145 SLP201 T01941083

Also, reports of powerlines and traffic lights blown down along Hwy 78 in Wylie.

[ElectricStorm]

I just realized I'm one county away from a PDS red flag warning. Don't think I've ever been in one of those.

EDIT: Looked at the wrong day. That was for yesterday. oops

[Iceresistance]

I just realized I'm one county away from a PDS red flag warning. Don't think I've ever been in one of those

How is it a PDS? I don't see it on the warnings.

[ElectricStorm]

I just realized I'm one county away from a PDS red flag warning. Don't think I've ever been in one of those

How is it a PDS? I don't see it on the warnings.

It's not I saw the date wrong that was for yesterday

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS is just crazy just north of us, glad we're not in the bullseye for this . . . yet.

This could shift south & west, putting us in the highest parameters for this event. April 12th now needs to be watched closely.