Texas Spring 2022

[cheezyWXguy]

Yeah this could be one for both the plains and the Deep South this time. The gfs has been surprisingly consistent over the past few runs, although it keeps skipping around with the placement of the surface low between KS/NE or NW TX closer to the 500mb center. No point in getting bogged down with surface features at this point though, way too far out. Euro seems horribly inconsistent and cmc is somewhere in between.

I don't know Mike Ventrice very well, how trusted are his forecasts?

I don't really follow him but I think that's some sort of an automated program he set up. From what I've seen it tends to run way too high, like I think it had a 45% area for yesterday while in reality it was a 15. But the area of severe seems pretty decent. But like I said I don't really know much about it.

He has quite a seasoned background, but his index seems decent. Probably exaggerates probabilities a bit, but doesn't seem as bad as the SREF sigtor maps. I think a good general rule of thumb is to shave a category off of each part of the risk area when looking at his maps.

[Iceresistance]

I don't know Mike Ventrice very well, how trusted are his forecasts?

I don't really follow him but I think that's some sort of an automated program he set up. From what I've seen it tends to run way too high, like I think it had a 45% area for yesterday while in reality it was a 15. But the area of severe seems pretty decent. But like I said I don't really know much about it.

He has quite a seasoned background, but his index seems decent. Probably exaggerates probabilities a bit, but doesn't seem as bad as the SREF sigtor maps. I think a good general rule of thumb is to shave a category off of each part of the risk area when looking at his maps.

He did the maps when he combined all the model runs & put them out on the SPC style Severe weather threat?

Generally treating his forecasts with a Grain of Salt as well since I don't know his forecasting ability very well.

I'm strongly thinking that the SPC may start to introduce the Severe Weather areas in the Southern Plains & then Dixie Alley in the next 1-3 days.

[ElectricStorm]

GFS has been pretty consistent so far for the potential 3/29 event.


Euro's been all over the place but the most recent run does have a trough coming through but we'll see if that holds


If these trends continue, I wouldn't be surprised to see SPC highlight 3/29 sometime within the next few days. Like with every system, this is nearly a week out, and a lot can and will change.

Something else to note is the MJO forecast. Most models have it cutting through the circle and looping back down through 8, 1, 2, skipping the unfavorable phase. If this verifies, we could be looking at continued potential severe weather events at least through the first couple weeks of April.

[HockeyTx82]

My home weather station recorded another freeze this morning.

[Iceresistance]

I'm treating his automated forecast with a Grain of Salt

 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1506995990204751883

[Iceresistance]

With the MJO expected to move into more favorable phases for Storms across the Southern Plains, this has popped up on the 0z GEFS, this is just wild.


https://s1.gifyu.com/images/This-is-wild.png

[bubba hotep]

I'm treating his automated forecast with a Grain of Salt

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1506995990204751883?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Looks about right to me. Another round of storms on the way.

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm treating his automated forecast with a Grain of Salt

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1506995990204751883?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Looks about right to me. Another round of storms on the way.

Yep, the current overnight timing doesn’t look “ideal”, but with how the globals underestimate WAA, there’s probably a decent shot at severe weather. I’d rather see just a lot of heavy rain but we’re kind of in a position to take what we can get

[Iceresistance]

I'm treating his automated forecast with a Grain of Salt

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1506995990204751883?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Looks about right to me. Another round of storms on the way.

Yep, the current overnight timing doesn’t look “ideal”, but with how the globals underestimate WAA, there’s probably a decent shot at severe weather. I’d rather see just a lot of heavy rain but we’re kind of in a position to take what we can get

The 12z CMC has it more ideal for Severe Weather, with storms firing in Western Oklahoma & NW Texas before coming in overnight as a line.

[Brent]

Looks about right to me. Another round of storms on the way.

Yep, the current overnight timing doesn’t look “ideal”, but with how the globals underestimate WAA, there’s probably a decent shot at severe weather. I’d rather see just a lot of heavy rain but we’re kind of in a position to take what we can get

The 12z CMC has it more ideal for Severe Weather, with storms firing in Western Oklahoma & NW Texas before coming in overnight as a line.

Yeah I really think it depends on timing. If it's overnight like current thinking here it probably will be more linear for sure and more manageable

Apparently the Euro went from the driest model yesterday to the wettest today here so that's something

[cheezyWXguy]

Yep, the current overnight timing doesn’t look “ideal”, but with how the globals underestimate WAA, there’s probably a decent shot at severe weather. I’d rather see just a lot of heavy rain but we’re kind of in a position to take what we can get

The 12z CMC has it more ideal for Severe Weather, with storms firing in Western Oklahoma & NW Texas before coming in overnight as a line.

Yeah I really think it depends on timing. If it's overnight like current thinking here it probably will be more linear for sure and more manageable

Apparently the Euro went from the driest model yesterday to the wettest today here so that's something

The euro and cmc have been awfully inconsistent. I imagine that’s why the SPC hasn’t issued a risk area despite the gfs’s consistency. I’m thinking it will be linear if it plays out like the gfs as you said, but shear profiles look pretty favorable. I think it’ll come down to how much instability is available at that hour as to whether anything in the open warm sector would get going, but at this point I would think probably not. That said, the shear makes me think qlcs tornadoes would be a possibility

[Iceresistance]

The 12z CMC has it more ideal for Severe Weather, with storms firing in Western Oklahoma & NW Texas before coming in overnight as a line.

Yeah I really think it depends on timing. If it's overnight like current thinking here it probably will be more linear for sure and more manageable

Apparently the Euro went from the driest model yesterday to the wettest today here so that's something

The euro and cmc have been awfully inconsistent. I imagine that’s why the SPC hasn’t issued a risk area despite the gfs’s consistency. I’m thinking it will be linear if it plays out like the gfs as you said, but shear profiles look pretty favorable. I think it’ll come down to how much instability is available at that hour as to whether anything in the open warm sector would get going, but at this point I would think probably not. That said, the shear makes me think qlcs tornadoes would be a possibility

The CMC Is now more similar to the GFS, let's see if the 0z CMC holds true to the 12z CMC

[ElectricStorm]

Yeah I'm thinking we'll see some type of marginally severe squall line sometime overnight Tuesday. Things could change but that's probably the most likely outcome.

[Iceresistance]

SPC introduces Severe Weather chances for D5 & D6 for the Southern Plains & Dixie Alley


https://s1.gifyu.com/images/day5prob.gif


https://s1.gifyu.com/images/day6prob-1.gif

[ElectricStorm]

Well the way SPC worded that, my previous post may be wrong lol. GFS sped up a bit as well which would make this a more dangerous event. There will probably be a couple west shifts like usual but I overall this is gonna be something to watch for sure. Plains getting going early this year.

[Iceresistance]

Bullseye!


https://s7.gifyu.com/images/day5p24iwbg_fill.gif

[Iceresistance]

I've forgot to post this, but My Aunt's Relatives were affected by the Kingston, OK Tornado, they are fine, but their friends east of town got struck, they're also fine, but they've lost their homes to the EF-2 Tornado.

[Ntxw]

Models are convening as some have posted, being April there will be severe weather risks. Though with the further north low track, any rainfall forecasts, begrudgingly, I'd cut it in half for seasonal trends.

[Iceresistance]

Models are convening as some have posted, being April there will be severe weather risks. Though with the further north low track, any rainfall forecasts, begrudgingly, I'd cut it in half for seasonal trends.

However, with a more northern track for Storm Systems that will have Fronts missing us, the Severe Weather threat along with intensity of the storms will increase over time due to only increasing CAPE & Dewpoints until the Cold Front shoves through, be prepared for potentially more intense Storms due to the more untapped atmosphere if this forecast verifies.

[Cpv17]

Models are convening as some have posted, being April there will be severe weather risks. Though with the further north low track, any rainfall forecasts, begrudgingly, I'd cut it in half for seasonal trends.

Not looking good for the southern half of the state. Luckily for me I’ve picked up over 3.50” so far this month.