Texas Spring 2022

[cheezyWXguy]

The model trends overnight are concerning to me for north texas, most notably the HRRR and NAM. Surface CAPE and STP continue to rise for the 6-9pm timeframe, as projected surface temps for this timeframe have increased from the 63-65 range a couple days ago to around 70 now. In my non-expert opinion, the SPC ought to go moderate with central texas today and expand 10% hatched tornado probabilities to the northern border of Collin/Denton counties.

[Bhow]

Is RadarScope down for everyone else? Almost all locations are down except for a few in Europe and Australia.

[Iceresistance]

Is RadarScope down for everyone else? Almost all locations are down except for a few in Europe and Australia.

I don't have RadarScope, but I've heard it does go down every once in a while.

[cheezyWXguy]

Is RadarScope down for everyone else? Almost all locations are down except for a few in Europe and Australia.

Just started working for me now

[Iceresistance]

Enhanced risk expanded into all of DFW

[rwfromkansas]

Drizzling here. CAMS aren’t blowing up huge storms in size, but may be underdoing things. Reflectivity isn’t to be considered a forecast.

[HockeyTx82]

HRRR has lots of convection for DFW around hour 20, will that take some of the punch away later? Looks kile numerous storms unless that's the big bad stuff

[HockeyTx82]

Drizzling here. CAMS aren’t blowing up huge storms in size, but may be underdoing things. Reflectivity isn’t to be considered a forecast.

CAMS? Also for where?

[rwfromkansas]

Drizzling here. CAMS aren’t blowing up huge storms in size, but may be underdoing things. Reflectivity isn’t to be considered a forecast.

CAMS? Also for where?

Convective models. They are showing lots of small storms, but not the big monster supercells some had before around Austin going east. Small storms can be severe of course.

[ElectricStorm]

12z HRRR is much more discrete for today. I'm thinking we'll see a moderate at some point, unless the morning convection really puts a dent in potential, which is possible but probably not likely.

[HockeyTx82]

12z HRRR is much more discrete for today. I'm thinking we'll see a moderate at some point, unless the morning convection really puts a dent in potential, which is possible but probably not likely.

There's a large chunk of Texas in conversation today. Where are you referring too?

[cheezyWXguy]

HRRR has lots of convection for DFW around hour 20, will that take some of the punch away later? Looks kile numerous storms unless that's the big bad stuff

Although there will be shower activity early on, I don’t see this as sufficient to hinder severe potential. The CAMs (convection allowing models) have been increasing surface temps for the event despite the shower activity, and the HRRR now shows temps reaching 70+ by late afternoon, which would allow for cape well over 2000j/kg.

The way I see it by looking at the HRRR, shower activity will probably gradually increase in intensity as time goes on, eventually rooting in the surface layer around or after 4pm. If this actually happens (up in the air at that time), grungy rain wrapped tornadoes are a possibility. There may be a lull after this activity clears out before more storms fire directly off the dry line. These storms would have a lot more instability to work with allowing for the large hail threat. Shear profiles look a little less favorable after about 6pm when these would come through, but are still supportive of a tornado threat.

[ElectricStorm]

12z HRRR is much more discrete for today. I'm thinking we'll see a moderate at some point, unless the morning convection really puts a dent in potential, which is possible but probably not likely.

There's a large chunk of Texas in conversation today. Where are you referring too?

Most likely the central parts of the 10 hatched. Maybe a bit of the northern part as well. Looks like 2 rounds of discrete supercells for parts of the 10 hatched on the newest HRRR. This is assuming these trends continue though, if future runs go back to a bit more linear mode like previous runs, it might stay enhanced.

Either way this will probably get ugly.

[Edwards Limestone]

Getting some much needed rain this AM in the San Antonio area...

Will this reduce severe wx chances at all later this afternoon? I can't remember many high impact days that started cloudy/rainy/drizzly.

[HockeyTx82]

Something's not adding up, I'm walking across the UNT campus and it's cool, cloudy and chilly. Not the typical day I would expect to see huge horrific storms later on. It's 10AM

[rwfromkansas]

I have seen some severe days with clouds, but if it doesn't warm up and get some breaks this afternoon, I will start to wonder.

What you don't want is a big MCS rolling through, but so far that hasn't happened.

[ElectricStorm]

13z HRRR was pretty tame, but 14z is similar to the 12z. Definitely a tough one for the SPC today. If it was me, based on the current temps/conditions, I'd probably keep it enhanced for now but they know a lot more than me. If we start seeing some clearing and warmer temps, then that could call for an upgrade imo

[cheezyWXguy]

The latest HRRR, ARW, and ARW2 all show a pretty potent storm bisecting the DFW metro from SW to NE between 4 and 5pm. If that does occur it would be moving into some very favorable parameter space. I notice the NAM does not show it, but shows an even more supportive environment in dfw than the HRRR does. Should be noted that unlike more traditional setups, temps will not have to rise more than a few degrees from what they are now to generate a large amount of surface cape.

[Quixotic]

April 3rd 2012 outbreak was cloudy and cool for DFW. Granted it wasn't huge, but it was still a dangerous event.

[txtwister78]

The "issue" for severe weather for central and southern areas of the 35 corridor is the advancement of the dryline in correlation with the cap in place. Once the dryline moves through then of course that shuts down your severe threat and so there is a limited window in the afternoon across that region for storms to initiate. The parameters are in place but if cloud cover hangs on longer this more than likely shifts further east as some of the models are now indicating.