Texas Spring 2022

[cheezyWXguy]

I'm hoping someone more experienced can answer this for me, but this is something I have been confused about for a couple of days:

A couple of days ago, I was pretty sold that the models were underdoing warm air advection from the gulf, given the strength, tilt, and location of the low pressure system. However, the consistency in the models, and now with the NAM moving into range, I am still seeing temps in the low to mid 60s at most across north and east texas prior to the transit of the dryline between 1pm and 7pm (depending which model you look at). Since I'm not too keen on the idea of having to warn friends and family about tornadoes all day, I am pretty content with this outcome. However, it seems peculiar that a system like this in late march is contending with temps so cool in the open warm sector. Why is this the case?

[Iceresistance]

That wind outside is just crazy right now, had a gust close to 40 not too long ago.

[EnnisTx]

Some devastating footage, but gives you the reality of what's going on out West. I'm headed out that way this evening to help out on the lines.


https://youtu.be/3z45WqnYOuw
https://youtu.be/HMWizsW2_BY

https://youtu.be/EhrzjUpeJOY

[Haris]

Euro and cmc remain good rainmakers for some areas. Gfs is the driest

[captainbarbossa19]

Euro and cmc remain good rainmakers for some areas. Gfs is the driest

The Euro is cruel to my area. Less than one inch out of the next event. Meanwhile, areas to my NW are getting 3 inches plus. I don't want severe weather, but I hope this changes on rainfall.

[EnnisTx]

Euro and cmc remain good rainmakers for some areas. Gfs is the driest

Need a good rain for most of the state, hopefully Mondays storms will quell the fires for everyone, especially Eastland County.

[txtwister78]

The trends for the system on Monday continue (particularly with ENS) to be nudged east with time regarding much needed rainfall. Rinse & repeat pattern unfortunately. Models remain no good in the medium range as long as we are locked into this -pdo/La Nina mess.

Still need to watch dynamics for severe weather, particularly from 35 corridor points east. Right now I think areas along (across the metros) or just east will be the initiating area for storms and as a result lead to less accumulating rainfall for those areas as most models currently indicate. Bad for drought conditions obviously (particularly across SA region), but considering some of these afternoon soundings on Monday, perhaps that's not a bad thing this time around for those populated regions. Still a few days to watch trends but Monday continues to be a bears watch for parts of TX in terms of a severe weather threat.

[Brent]

Even up here Tulsa mentioning heaviest rain shifting east

It never fails apparently

[Iceresistance]

Even up here Tulsa mentioning heaviest rain shifting east

It never fails apparently

KFOR would like to say otherwise

And a HUGE west shift on the 18z GFS, there's still hope

[ElectricStorm]

GFS doesn't have a whole lot of instability Monday but that would still be enough for a dangerous event. My guess is we'll see a Day 3 enhanced with a potential (probably likely) upgrade to moderate by Day 1.

[cheezyWXguy]

GFS doesn't have a whole lot of instability Monday but that would still be enough for a dangerous event. My guess is we'll see a Day 3 enhanced with a potential (probably likely) upgrade to moderate by Day 1.

One thing I notice is that the 0z gfs is starting to bring a tongue of warmer more unstable air north just ahead of the dryline in the afternoon. May be starting to catch on to stronger WAA

[cheezyWXguy]

GFS doesn't have a whole lot of instability Monday but that would still be enough for a dangerous event. My guess is we'll see a Day 3 enhanced with a potential (probably likely) upgrade to moderate by Day 1.

One thing I notice is that the 0z gfs is starting to bring a tongue of warmer more unstable air north just ahead of the dryline in the afternoon. May be starting to catch on to stronger WAA

0z NAM follows the trend. This does not look pretty for DFW and central Texas...

[ElectricStorm]

Day 3 enhanced

[Haris]

Last nights euro and Canadian are your best bet

[bubba hotep]

12z 3k NAM would pretty nice for N. Texas, not a drought buster but pretty widespread.

[Iceresistance]

9z SREF has a 60% STP for SE Texas on Next Monday, it's noticing the high potential for Severe Storms down there.

But Next Tuesday for Mississippi . . .

[Ralph's Weather]

Frosty this morning with some spots below freezing. Very nice weekend ahead. Storms Monday. Cool next week with some additional frost and freezes possible.

[captainbarbossa19]

12z Euro has widespread 1-2 inch rainfall amounts with many areas receiving 3 inches plus for SE Texas. This is an encouraging trend for our area rain-wise, but it is not good for severe weather I fear.

[txtwister78]

Yeah 12z Euro puts AUS and SAT back in the western zone of concern for late afternoon Monday. Continue to believe that's probably where the initialization area is for severe storms (especially if Euro verifies with max heating and ample shear over those areas). Still feel the greatest area is a bit further east and NE though where instability is able to maximize. Tomorrow the day to watch to see if we see any trends west with HI-RES.

[Ntxw]

For parts of N TX the morning heavy rain activity will likely help keep the risk down some with an atmosphere worked over (would change if timing was off). Areas to the south and just east would favor peak heating on Monday.

For Oklahoma dew points in the 40s/50s is too cool. South of I-20 and east of I-35 has a good window of 65+ DP in the afternoon.

Tuesday looks like a severe weather day for dixie alley.