Texas Spring 2022

[Ntxw]

Starting to see returns out West along the 281 corridor.

Yeah no kidding. Way more coverage south of the red river than any model I’ve seen showed. Looks like I already have crow to eat, as I didn’t think more than one or two random cells would pop

We still have to see if they go severe. In a general sense some of the guidance do show some activity (OPs like 12z euro) for instance but scattered activity.

[rwfromkansas]

The SPC mesoanalysis showed not much cap west and decent convergence. But, it often doesn’t show the full picture. Mets posted the cap was strong over DFW, so I figured I just was missing something and nothing would fire there.

But, a couple cells are trying. Dew point at 57 so decent return.

[Ntxw]

The SPC mesoanalysis showed not much cap west and decent convergence. But, it often doesn’t show the full picture. Mets posted the cap was strong over DFW, so I figured I just was missing something and nothing would fire there.

But, a couple cells are trying. Dew point at 57 so decent return.

I think the dewpoints is a factor inhibitor today. For a bigger outbreak you want to see high 60s to 70s, unless you are close to the triple point up in Oklahoma.

[rwfromkansas]

Wow, unzipping fast.

Did not see this.

[bubba hotep]

Storms firing off the dryline west and just SW of DFW. Now to see if they can get rooted or if the get capped as they move off the dryline.

[bubba hotep]

Mesoscale Discussion 0268
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0555 PM CDT Thu Mar 17 2022

Areas affected...North TX

Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48...

Valid 172255Z - 180030Z

The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 48
continues.

SUMMARY...A few strong to severe thunderstorms may develop across
North TX over the next several hours.

DISCUSSION...Recent visible satellite imagery shows increasingly
agitated cumulus along the dryline moving into north TX. Forecast
soundings in much of this region continue to show warm temperatures
aloft, supporting convective inhibition. Most recent mesoanalysis
estimates MLCIN is around -25 to -50 J/kg. Recent ACARS soundings
from DAL also continue to show capping, with MLCIN around -30 to -35
J/kg. Even so, convergence along the boundary is quite strong and
moisture advection continue in the downstream environment. Dewpoints
have increased along the I-35 corridor 3-4 degrees over the past 3
hours.

Given these improving thermodynamics and persistent low-level
convergence, the potential exists for a few deeper, more sustained
updrafts. Wind profiles show strong low-level veering but a
pronounced weakness in the mid-levels. As a result, storm
organization will likely be somewhat limited. Even so, a few strong
to severe storms are possible and watch expansion southward may need
to be considered soon.

..Mosier.. 03/17/2022

...Please see http://www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...

[HockeyTx82]

Storms firing off the dryline west and just SW of DFW. Now to see if they can get rooted or if the get capped as they move off the dryline.

SPC taking note. Not sold on severe necessary. But bears watching.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0268.html

[Ntxw]

Side note smoke from the huge fires behind dryline between Coleman and Eastland county is quite evident on radar where there is a fire emergency. Fascinating view of it behind these storms. Smokey and hazy skies over parts of DFW after the activity passes.

[rwfromkansas]

Not getting stronger, so cap is holding them down. I may get a few sprinkles here in a bit.

[bubba hotep]

Based on the rapid scan sat images, the cell just south of downtown FTW is trying to make a come back. Looks like it might pop up an anvil in the next few scans.

[HockeyTx82]

Not getting stronger, so cap is holding them down. I may get a few sprinkles here in a bit.

Very elevated and sheared out over Denton.

[EnnisTx]

Side note smoke from the huge fires behind dryline between Coleman and Eastland county is quite evident on radar where there is a fire emergency. Fascinating view of it behind these storms. Smokey and hazy skies over parts of DFW after the activity passes.

https://i.imgur.com/2OQNWrR.png

Along with a large fire in Ranger involving numerous structures, very busy out there.

[Ntxw]

Based on the rapid scan sat images, the cell just south of downtown FTW is trying to make a come back. Looks like it might pop up an anvil in the next few scans.

Getting heavy rain, some thunder east/se of the airport. It's definitely gaining some steam.

[gpsnowman]

Based on the rapid scan sat images, the cell just south of downtown FTW is trying to make a come back. Looks like it might pop up an anvil in the next few scans.

Getting heavy rain, some thunder east/se of the airport. It's definitely gaining some steam.

Heavy rain here with pea size hail. Heaviest rain I have seen in 30 years, or seems like it.

[WeatherNewbie]

this is a first for me... it is not raining, but it is hailing.

ok, the rain caught up to the hail.

[Iceresistance]

I'm seeing lightning outside

[Ntxw]

For this system officially at DFW airport 0.02". 0.30" for March to date.

[bubba hotep]

A couple of new cells trying to get going off the dryline.

[HockeyTx82]

A couple of new cells trying to get going off the dryline.

It's really trying..... poor thing

[ElectricStorm]

Storms starting to come my way now. Just outside of the severe thunderstorm watch so we could end up with something strong despite being just north of the marginal risk.