Texas Spring 2022

[rwfromkansas]

SPC isn't budging on northeast of metro, so I think today is dry for me. Again. Missed two chances in a row.

[Iceresistance]

Reed Timmer is heading towards Norman, he said that soundings indicate a faster-than-expected moisture plume may cause some BIG Hail, Norman may get plummeted again by another Hailstorm.

[Iceresistance]

On the flip side, there is a Extreme Fire Threat for Western Texas today.

[Iceresistance]

This is what Mike Morgan is saying, he's siding with the SPC for a low tornado threat thankfully.

 https://twitter.com/MikeMorganKFOR/status/1504212990824001538

[ElectricStorm]

Reed Timmer is heading towards Norman, he said that soundings indicate a faster-than-expected moisture plume may cause some BIG Hail, Norman may get plummeted again by another Hailstorm.

Good thing I'm home for spring break
I like storms but absolutely can't stand hail

[Iceresistance]

Reed Timmer is heading towards Norman, he said that soundings indicate a faster-than-expected moisture plume may cause some BIG Hail, Norman may get plummeted again by another Hailstorm.

Good thing I'm home for spring break
I like storms but absolutely can't stand hail

So am I!

Also, me & My family is remodeling the entire house & we happen to have old mattresses on the porch, I'm going to put them into good use tonight by covering the windshields from the Hail, even hail can total cars, one of the HS Teachers lost his wife's car to Tennis Ball sized hail in April 2021, because apparently, the Hail damaged the hood so much that it even damaged the Engine!

[Ntxw]

A lot of wind and fire danger today in Texas. Maybe the far northeast corner of the state may see a few storms.

[HockeyTx82]

A lot of wind and fire danger today in Texas. Maybe the far northeast corner of the state may see a few storms.

Was just looking at thr HRRR, Oklahoma looks to get storms, some rain in East Texas. Seems to be a last minute north shift. Not an expert.

[cheezyWXguy]

One thing I note is the (as usual) timing difference between the progressive gfs and more stagnant euro. About a 6 hour difference in progression between the two. I still see some run to run variances in each model in regard to the 500mb pattern, but I think both are underdoing the WAA ahead of the system. I imagine if the euro is closer on timing, we in the eastern half of Texas, and maybe eastern Oklahoma, will be in for a rough ride.

[HockeyTx82]

One thing I note is the (as usual) timing difference between the progressive gfs and more stagnant euro. About a 6 hour difference in progression between the two. I still see some run to run variances in each model in regard to the 500mb pattern, but I think both are underdoing the WAA ahead of the system. I imagine if the euro is closer on timing, we in the eastern half of Texas, and maybe eastern Oklahoma, will be in for a rough ride.

For when and what?

[Iceresistance]

One thing I note is the (as usual) timing difference between the progressive gfs and more stagnant euro. About a 6 hour difference in progression between the two. I still see some run to run variances in each model in regard to the 500mb pattern, but I think both are underdoing the WAA ahead of the system. I imagine if the euro is closer on timing, we in the eastern half of Texas, and maybe eastern Oklahoma, will be in for a rough ride.

For when and what?

Next Monday, Potential Severe Weather

[cheezyWXguy]

One thing I note is the (as usual) timing difference between the progressive gfs and more stagnant euro. About a 6 hour difference in progression between the two. I still see some run to run variances in each model in regard to the 500mb pattern, but I think both are underdoing the WAA ahead of the system. I imagine if the euro is closer on timing, we in the eastern half of Texas, and maybe eastern Oklahoma, will be in for a rough ride.

For when and what?

Next Monday, Potential Severe Weather

Sorry, wrote that kind of fast, thought I specified but it looks like I didn’t. Work day and all.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Which model does better with cut off lows? Here in Denver, this could be a massive snowstorm depending on the model. Need clarity soon, were 4 days out and still cant zero in on what will happen.

[Ntxw]

One thing I note is the (as usual) timing difference between the progressive gfs and more stagnant euro. About a 6 hour difference in progression between the two. I still see some run to run variances in each model in regard to the 500mb pattern, but I think both are underdoing the WAA ahead of the system. I imagine if the euro is closer on timing, we in the eastern half of Texas, and maybe eastern Oklahoma, will be in for a rough ride.

The Euro because of timing and more meridional flow would be some severe for anything that pops ahead but line will quickly bow and become a heavy rain feature.

Side note looks chilly behind this system for late March.

[Brent]

One thing I note is the (as usual) timing difference between the progressive gfs and more stagnant euro. About a 6 hour difference in progression between the two. I still see some run to run variances in each model in regard to the 500mb pattern, but I think both are underdoing the WAA ahead of the system. I imagine if the euro is closer on timing, we in the eastern half of Texas, and maybe eastern Oklahoma, will be in for a rough ride.

The Euro because of timing and more meridional flow would be some severe for anything that pops ahead but line will quickly bow and become a heavy rain feature.

Side note looks chilly behind this system for late March.

Yeah we get close to a freeze next week

Oh and I agree on the hail thing... I saw my fill in 2016 in DFW. I'm good never seeing that again. Nothing good about baseball and larger hail

I will say right now next Monday looks a bit cool here for severe weather but we'll see how it trends

Speaking of cool tomorrow looks downright chilly after these last few days may struggle to get to 50

[cheezyWXguy]

One thing I note is the (as usual) timing difference between the progressive gfs and more stagnant euro. About a 6 hour difference in progression between the two. I still see some run to run variances in each model in regard to the 500mb pattern, but I think both are underdoing the WAA ahead of the system. I imagine if the euro is closer on timing, we in the eastern half of Texas, and maybe eastern Oklahoma, will be in for a rough ride.

The Euro because of timing and more meridional flow would be some severe for anything that pops ahead but line will quickly bow and become a heavy rain feature.

Side note looks chilly behind this system for late March.

Agreed on the flow, but my impression with the timing is that a slower system would result in a longer period of WAA and destabilization ahead of the advancing dryline which would move into the area near or just after peak heating. Would that not be the case?

That said, given the track record of the GFS and Euro in regard to the handling stronger low pressure systems over the last few months, I am more inclined to favor the GFS in terms of pattern evolution. However, its bias toward progressing them too fast (and the euro too slow) probably should be accounted for. The 12z GFS exemplifies this in that its practically an outlier when compared to its previous runs.

[bubba hotep]

A lot of wind and fire danger today in Texas. Maybe the far northeast corner of the state may see a few storms.

Interestingly, FWD has not really budged on their coverage forecast even with the hi-res models showing everything either north or well east of DFW.

[Iceresistance]

Thunderstorm Watch in effect for Oklahoma, here we go

Also, weather.gov is not working properly, but this explains it:

**Our web pages are undergoing maintenance, which may result in the display of old data. This message will be removed once maintenance is complete.

[EnnisTx]

Starting to see returns out West along the 281 corridor.

[cheezyWXguy]

Starting to see returns out West along the 281 corridor.

Yeah no kidding. Way more coverage south of the red river than any model I’ve seen showed. Looks like I already have crow to eat, as I didn’t think more than one or two random cells would pop