Texas Spring 2022

[Iceresistance]

This is going to be likely a North Texas Triple Point Event with a Slight Risk in place, this is still looking like a sneaky event.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Texas-Triple-Point-possible.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Texas-Triple-Point-possible.gif

Next Monday's system is still too far out for the SREF, but the Models have really taken note of it, even the Euro.
Some of the model soundings are just insane, but it's far out right now & I must wait to post it here. (Unless Y'all want to see it)

What are you posting? No offense and I appreciate the passion but your track record over winter of posting maps leads me to think this is just a one off extreme run or something. Please put some context around what this is.

Not trying to be rude, but you do post lots of maps. Keep up the passion.

That is the SREF STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) map on the Storm Prediction Center, there's a 30% spot very close to DFW, the '15' area (For example) is a chance for a Significant Tornado to occur within any given Supercell that may occur in the area, that means that the conditions are favorable for Supercells to produce tornadoes.

This is not Texas Related, but I do want to mention a 60% area in Louisiana on the same run, the conditions are extremely favorable for tornadoes.

Here's the link for all of Y'all to see it: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=latest&id=SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__

[cheezyWXguy]

This is going to be likely a North Texas Triple Point Event with a Slight Risk in place, this is still looking like a sneaky event.

https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Texas-Triple-Point-possible.gif
https://s10.gifyu.com/images/Texas-Triple-Point-possible.gif

Next Monday's system is still too far out for the SREF, but the Models have really taken note of it, even the Euro.
Some of the model soundings are just insane, but it's far out right now & I must wait to post it here. (Unless Y'all want to see it)

What are you posting? No offense and I appreciate the passion but your track record over winter of posting maps leads me to think this is just a one off extreme run or something. Please put some context around what this is.

Not trying to be rude, but you do post lots of maps. Keep up the passion.

That is the SREF STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) map on the Storm Prediction Center, there's a 30% spot very close to DFW, the '15' area (For example) is a chance for a Significant Tornado to occur within any given Supercell that may occur in the area, that means that the conditions are favorable for Supercells to produce tornadoes.

This is not Texas Related, but I do want to mention a 60% area in Louisiana on the same run, the conditions are extremely favorable for tornadoes.

Here's the link for all of Y'all to see it: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=latest&id=SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__

It’s hard to discount this model run outright, but I’m wondering why there’s such a large disconnect between the high percentages shown here, and the low percentages forecast by the spc. As you said, STP is up to near 30 over dfw, but at the same time spc doesn’t even show a 2% risk contour. The difference is even more drastic over Louisiana, with the sref showing 60% as you mentioned, contrasting the peak of 5% by the SPC. Something’s gotta give and I’m guessing it’s the sref that will end up caving more

[Iceresistance]

What are you posting? No offense and I appreciate the passion but your track record over winter of posting maps leads me to think this is just a one off extreme run or something. Please put some context around what this is.

Not trying to be rude, but you do post lots of maps. Keep up the passion.

That is the SREF STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) map on the Storm Prediction Center, there's a 30% spot very close to DFW, the '15' area (For example) is a chance for a Significant Tornado to occur within any given Supercell that may occur in the area, that means that the conditions are favorable for Supercells to produce tornadoes.

This is not Texas Related, but I do want to mention a 60% area in Louisiana on the same run, the conditions are extremely favorable for tornadoes.

Here's the link for all of Y'all to see it: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=latest&id=SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__

It’s hard to discount this model run outright, but I’m wondering why there’s such a large disconnect between the high percentages shown here, and the low percentages forecast by the spc. As you said, STP is up to near 30 over dfw, but at the same time spc doesn’t even show a 2% risk contour. The difference is even more drastic over Louisiana, with the sref showing 60% as you mentioned, contrasting the peak of 5% by the SPC. Something’s gotta give and I’m guessing it’s the sref that will end up caving more

Maybe they are very conservative for this system because of the GFS & Euro? It will come down to more of the Mesoscale models like the HRRR on the Day 1 Outlook.

We had a similar example in Iowa earlier this month, it was also a Triple Point event.

[ElectricStorm]

What are you posting? No offense and I appreciate the passion but your track record over winter of posting maps leads me to think this is just a one off extreme run or something. Please put some context around what this is.

Not trying to be rude, but you do post lots of maps. Keep up the passion.

That is the SREF STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) map on the Storm Prediction Center, there's a 30% spot very close to DFW, the '15' area (For example) is a chance for a Significant Tornado to occur within any given Supercell that may occur in the area, that means that the conditions are favorable for Supercells to produce tornadoes.

This is not Texas Related, but I do want to mention a 60% area in Louisiana on the same run, the conditions are extremely favorable for tornadoes.

Here's the link for all of Y'all to see it: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=latest&id=SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__

It’s hard to discount this model run outright, but I’m wondering why there’s such a large disconnect between the high percentages shown here, and the low percentages forecast by the spc. As you said, STP is up to near 30 over dfw, but at the same time spc doesn’t even show a 2% risk contour. The difference is even more drastic over Louisiana, with the sref showing 60% as you mentioned, contrasting the peak of 5% by the SPC. Something’s gotta give and I’m guessing it’s the sref that will end up caving more

Yeah sometimes SREF has some crazy outputs. It had a 60 contour for the slight risk day on Monday that didn't even produce any tornado reports. It really depends on storm mode but other than that I'm not really sure what SREF takes into account.

Looking at the HRRR, it's not really showing anything to impressive over the majority of the slight risk area right now. What intrigues me though is that cluster in E OK on the 18z run. If that shows up on future runs I wouldn't be surprised to see the marginal and maybe even the slight risk expanded a bit north.

[HockeyTx82]

That is the SREF STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) map on the Storm Prediction Center, there's a 30% spot very close to DFW, the '15' area (For example) is a chance for a Significant Tornado to occur within any given Supercell that may occur in the area, that means that the conditions are favorable for Supercells to produce tornadoes.

This is not Texas Related, but I do want to mention a 60% area in Louisiana on the same run, the conditions are extremely favorable for tornadoes.

Here's the link for all of Y'all to see it: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=latest&id=SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__

It’s hard to discount this model run outright, but I’m wondering why there’s such a large disconnect between the high percentages shown here, and the low percentages forecast by the spc. As you said, STP is up to near 30 over dfw, but at the same time spc doesn’t even show a 2% risk contour. The difference is even more drastic over Louisiana, with the sref showing 60% as you mentioned, contrasting the peak of 5% by the SPC. Something’s gotta give and I’m guessing it’s the sref that will end up caving more

Yeah sometimes SREF has some crazy outputs. It had a 60 contour for the slight risk day on Monday that didn't even produce any tornado reports. It really depends on storm mode but other than that I'm not really sure what SREF takes into account.

Looking at the HRRR, it's not really showing anything to impressive over the majority of the slight risk area right now. What intrigues me though is that cluster in E OK on the 18z run. If that shows up on future runs I wouldn't be surprised to see the marginal and maybe even the slight risk expanded a bit north.

To my point it's one of many tools. Just like with winter weather the extremes are fun but reality is usually different.

I'll just take the rain please.

[Iceresistance]

That is the SREF STP (Significant Tornado Parameter) map on the Storm Prediction Center, there's a 30% spot very close to DFW, the '15' area (For example) is a chance for a Significant Tornado to occur within any given Supercell that may occur in the area, that means that the conditions are favorable for Supercells to produce tornadoes.

This is not Texas Related, but I do want to mention a 60% area in Louisiana on the same run, the conditions are extremely favorable for tornadoes.

Here's the link for all of Y'all to see it: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=latest&id=SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__

It’s hard to discount this model run outright, but I’m wondering why there’s such a large disconnect between the high percentages shown here, and the low percentages forecast by the spc. As you said, STP is up to near 30 over dfw, but at the same time spc doesn’t even show a 2% risk contour. The difference is even more drastic over Louisiana, with the sref showing 60% as you mentioned, contrasting the peak of 5% by the SPC. Something’s gotta give and I’m guessing it’s the sref that will end up caving more

Yeah sometimes SREF has some crazy outputs. It had a 60 contour for the slight risk day on Monday that didn't even produce any tornado reports. It really depends on storm mode but other than that I'm not really sure what SREF takes into account.

Looking at the HRRR, it's not really showing anything to impressive over the majority of the slight risk area right now. What intrigues me though is that cluster in E OK on the 18z run. If that shows up on future runs I wouldn't be surprised to see the marginal and maybe even the slight risk expanded a bit north.

The HRRR could be thinking that Texas is capped off, it's been showing that lately.

Also, the bulk of the storms are in Dewpoints only in the 50s, this could get really interesting, but it's at the Triple Point, where the highest Updraft lift is at, it can allow big storms to develop even in marginal dewpoints.

15z RAP has sided with the HRRR as well

[Ntxw]

Monday is definitely a risk. To what extent is yet to be seen. The caveat is you do get meridional flow (N/S) orientation of the ULL/trough which sometimes favor quick line congealing (MCS) which will shift more towards high wind/hail type events. Way too early to tell for sure.

[Iceresistance]

18z GFS Sounding for Southern Houston for Next Monday.


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/RUN4cf5813cf3356425.png

[Iceresistance]

What in the world is with the 18z GFS long-range?

[TheProfessor]

18z GFS would be a drought buster with tomorrow and Monday's storms here in Kansas. Widespread 2-3" of rain combined for both storms would put us back to being 1-2" above average depending on locations. The western half of the state is especially dry yearly, so 2-3" goes a very long way. Nebraska gets some good rain too, so if we can eat the drought away up here, perhaps it can help setup a more favorable pattern for y'all down south.

[ElectricStorm]

We'll see if what the 18z GFS shows continues but if so they'll have to expand that Day 6 slight risk north.

[cheezyWXguy]

We'll see if what the 18z GFS shows continues but if so they'll have to expand that Day 6 slight risk north.

May be hard to get instability north of the red river, dfw looks kind of borderline as well on the gfs. If temps get closer to 80, as opposed to the currently forecast low 70s, I imagine cape and lapse rates wouldn’t be quite so questionable

[ElectricStorm]

We'll see if what the 18z GFS shows continues but if so they'll have to expand that Day 6 slight risk north.

May be hard to get instability north of the red river, dfw looks kind of borderline as well on the gfs. If temps get closer to 80, as opposed to the currently forecast low 70s, I imagine cape and lapse rates wouldn’t be quite so questionable

Yeah a lot of times GFS underestimates instability a bit so I'd imagine it might increase some as we get closer. But we'll see, we typically don't get much action in March up here so who knows.

[Brent]

What in the world is with the 18z GFS long-range?

well its known as happy hour... Personally I think it had too much to drink

[Iceresistance]

21z SREF has a higher STP chances for DFW, but then I spotted this in SW Louisiana


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/SREF_prob_combined_sigtor__f036-1.gif

A spot higher than 60% chance? What is it?

EDIT: Figured it out, it's 75%, but it's 4 AM that morning & the tornado threat is basically 0, but there is going to be storms there that morning.

[cstrunk]

When's the last time you saw an enhanced Day 5 outlook?

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/

By Day 5/Monday, as the upper low moves northeastward across New
Mexico toward the High Plains, a surface low is forecast to evolve
over western Texas, and move toward western Oklahoma. As this
occurs, continued advection of high theta-e Gulf air into roughly
the eastern half of Texas will occur ahead of an advancing cold
front. As the airmass diurnally destabilizes, an increase in storm
coverage an intensity is expected. With very strong
southwesterly/south-southwesterly flow aloft, atop
south-southeasterlies at low levels, deep-layer shear will favor
supercells, along with sufficient low-level shear to support
potential for tornadoes -- a few possibly strong. Large hail and
damaging winds are also expected.

[Iceresistance]

The WPC is getting even crazier with the rainfall potential, especially next week.


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/WOW.gif

[Quixotic]

The possibility of a High Risk somewhere Monday is getting more likely. Moderate is a lock.

[ElectricStorm]

HRRR still looks interesting for OK with cells firing a little before 0z. Luckily it looks like we're gonna get some solid rain up here which is badly needed. For TX though, it still doesn't really get anything going. Hopefully you all down there get some rain but that might have to wait until Monday. HRRR has several discrete cells in LA after midnight so that's a concern but overall I don't think we'll see anything to crazy today.

Monday though...
Not sure when the last time I've seen a Day 5 enhanced was but whenever it was it's been a long time. Definitely very concerning and the strong wording doesn't make it any better. The big one for me is a Day 3 moderate. Extremely rare, but could be possible here. Every Day 3 moderate I've seen has turned into a really big event. I believe the most recent one was 4/12/20.

[cheezyWXguy]

Agreed on Monday. The only potential drawback I see is the lack of significant instability, it does feel like the models may be underdoing it though. The shear profiles on the other hand look extremely favorable.

As for today, I really have my doubts that we will see anything south of the red river. Maybe a rogue pop or two at most. I can’t find a single CAM that even supports that though.