Texas Spring 2022

[lukem]

Wow on the 6z GFS. That would put a huge dent in the Texas drought.

[bubba hotep]

12z 3K NAM pulls storms back farther West for tomorrow.

[Iceresistance]

The GFS is developing strong consistency of the Mid-March Storm System that appears to have a LOT of rain in Texas & Oklahoma, the current pattern of everything east of us is finally starting to break.

[Ntxw]

I think I can buy into it the heavy rain. ENs do show slow moving, negatively tilted, trough swinging through our region. Some severe weather risks. I'd side with Haris on toning down some of the qpf given recent trends but it does look hopeful.

[rwfromkansas]

Hey, would be nice to be wrong about early drought.

Just got my new Ambient Weather WS-2000 replacing an old broken model. I want it to count up some rain.

[Ntxw]

Hey, would be nice to be wrong about early drought.

Just got my new Ambient Weather WS-2000 replacing an old broken model. I want it to count up some rain.

We are under extreme drought which is the second highest category. For the water year (since last Fall) much of North Texas is running 6-8"+ of below normal rainfall. March and April are wetter months, so even getting copious rainfall is helpful but at best right now it is simply keeping up with the monthly averages. We still have multi inch long-term deficits. We will need persistent rainfall patterns of 2-4" above normal the next 3-4 months to clear the drought.

[rwfromkansas]

Hey, would be nice to be wrong about early drought.

Just got my new Ambient Weather WS-2000 replacing an old broken model. I want it to count up some rain.

We are under extreme drought which is the second highest category. For the water year (since last Fall) much of North Texas is running 6-8"+ of below normal rainfall. March and April are wetter months, so even getting copious rainfall is helpful but at best right now it is simply keeping up with the monthly averages. We still have multi inch long-term deficits. We will need persistent rainfall patterns of 2-4" above normal the next 3-4 months to clear the drought.

True, we are in drought, a bad one. I was thinking of a reprieve before summer, but we need a lot to overcome that drought monitor.

[Cpv17]

I think I can buy into it the heavy rain. ENs do show slow moving, negatively tilted, trough swinging through our region. Some severe weather risks. I'd side with Haris on toning down some of the qpf given recent trends but it does look hopeful.

The GEFS has most of the qpf still east of Texas. I’m not sold.

[bubba hotep]

[Cpv17]

https://maps8.pivotalweather.com/maps/spc/spcd1tor.us_sc.png

Interesting. I wasn’t even aware about this lol

[cstrunk]

Pretty quiet in here for having a risk of severe weather/supercells in the DFW area and points east this evening.

[wxman57]

It's been a little dry here in Houston this year. I've measured only 3.27" of rain since Jan 1st. That's about 2-3 inches below normal. Not much of an impact on vegetation yet. I'm loving the temps near 90 at the end of the GFS run. Now we're talking!

[rwfromkansas]

For me, I expect them to really get going east of me. But, I hope to get a little rain. Dallas east looks to be fairly significant though.

Saw a post that CIPS shows a wider risk starting further west this weekend.

[Iceresistance]

Eastern DFW is now under a Slight Risk for Tornadoes

There's also a HATCHED area for Hail for DFW, Baseball sized hail is possible.

[Edwards Limestone]

Hi-Res models showing Ark-La-Tex region getting pounded with a squall line later tonight. Most everything looks to be east of the 35 corridor and north of 10 until the TX coastal counties but who knows.

All depends on how far south the trough/low digs I would think? I'm not banking on any moisture here in SA.

[cstrunk]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0253.html



We'll see if they post a tornado watch vs. a severe thunderstorm watch..

[bubba hotep]

Looks like 18z guidance has backed off some on storms for DFW. The watch still catches the eastern portions of the area.

[EnnisTx]

Looks like 18z guidance has backed off some on storms for DFW. The watch still catches the eastern portions of the area.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FN1n-brVkAM3EIt?format=jpg&name=medium

Yep, dang it, building right on top of me in Arlington now…

[txtwister78]

Looks like storms are beginning to fire just south of Dallas....I think DFW will avoid most of the severe threat. Lookout NE TX though tonight.

As to the GFS long term.... anything beyond 3 days is just a guess under this pattern right now IMO. I'll take anything we can get though so happy to be wrong.

[rwfromkansas]

Dryline already here. Looks like only Dallas east. Currently a few starting to pop almost into Dallas County.