Texas Spring 2022

[rwfromkansas]

Well, all models show zip currently. Will see....maybe can get something still. Not giving up hope yet.

[orangeblood]

Almost every model now has the energy coming out of the southwest getting sheared out by northern feature, not looking good for winter weather on Friday. The system doesn't really get going until well east of here

[Ntxw]

Well I guess if you're in a drought, you expect the pattern to reflect it.

[Haris]

Glad winter is over. Just so crappy seeing every system, rain or snow, disappear. The only time it rained this whole winter in Austin really was the Early Feb event.

[txtwister78]

Yeah once again we've seen this rerun before....TX has been locked in to this pattern (La Nina influenced) for months and outside of the one big ice event in early Feb, it's been the same tired script regarding lack of precip (very little if any southern branch/pacific moisture to work with). Not surprised by it at all. Until we get out from under this pattern, I wouldn't trust models more than two days out as it relates to precip output and so I'm not even sure I would call this a bust in that the end result has been been fairly consistent throughout the entire winter.

[Cpv17]

Yeah once again we've seen this rerun before....TX has been locked in to this pattern (La Nina influenced) for months and outside of the one big ice event in early Feb, it's been the same tired script regarding lack of precip (very little if any southern branch/pacific moisture to work with). Not surprised by it at all. Until we get out from under this pattern, I wouldn't trust models more than two days out as it relates to precip output and so I'm not even sure I would call this a bust in that the end result has been been fairly consistent throughout the entire winter.

I hear La Niña isn’t going anywhere anytime soon either.

[rwfromkansas]

I really hope we get a neutral winter, but La Nina is just so stubborn.

We will be in for a megadrought potentially.

[DallasAg]

Well I guess if you're in a drought, you expect the pattern to reflect it.

Harold Taft (and no doubt many others) once said "a drought always ends in a flood, and a flood always ends in a drought." It's frustrating to see the losing streak we're on - where basically models come in bullish on QPF only to see that everything fizzles. Other than the nice soaking we got leading up to the 2/2 winter storm, we've been on the losing end of virtually every system since last fall. Once summer gets here the feedback loop will be hard to ignore. I guess we hope for an over-active tropics season or maybe we get lucky with an active Eastern Pacific storm season to funnel moisture over Mexico to us?

[txtwister78]

Well I guess if you're in a drought, you expect the pattern to reflect it.

Harold Taft (and no doubt many others) once said "a drought always ends in a flood, and a flood always ends in a drought." It's frustrating to see the losing streak we're on - where basically models come in bullish on QPF only to see that everything fizzles. Other than the nice soaking we got leading up to the 2/2 winter storm, we've been on the losing end of virtually every system since last fall. Once summer gets here the feedback loop will be hard to ignore. I guess we hope for an over-active tropics season or maybe we get lucky with an active Eastern Pacific storm season to funnel moisture over Mexico to us?

Seeing some early signs/signals for an active tropics in the gulf for the upcoming hurricane season and so hopefully that comes to fruition in terms of adding some beneficial rainfall and alleviating whatever drought conditions that exist across the state. That's typically been our source region for busting droughts when we've been locked into a pattern like this and from the looks of this graphic, that's probably what we're going to be forced into relying on unfortunately (the other risks associated with tropics).

In the short range, I've seen some chatter on social media about a potential severe weather event late next week across portions of N & Central TX, but once again seeing is believing at his point and so definitely not biting on that just yet.

[Ntxw]

Well I guess if you're in a drought, you expect the pattern to reflect it.

Harold Taft (and no doubt many others) once said "a drought always ends in a flood, and a flood always ends in a drought." It's frustrating to see the losing streak we're on - where basically models come in bullish on QPF only to see that everything fizzles. Other than the nice soaking we got leading up to the 2/2 winter storm, we've been on the losing end of virtually every system since last fall. Once summer gets here the feedback loop will be hard to ignore. I guess we hope for an over-active tropics season or maybe we get lucky with an active Eastern Pacific storm season to funnel moisture over Mexico to us?

Seeing some early signs/signals for an active tropics in the gulf for the upcoming hurricane season and so hopefully that comes to fruition in terms of adding some beneficial rainfall and alleviating whatever drought conditions that exist across the state. That's typically been our source region for busting droughts when we've been locked into a pattern like this.

In the short range, I've seen some chatter on social media about a potential severe weather event late next week across portions of N & Central TX, but once again seeing is believing at his point and so definitely not biting on that just yet.

It would be nice to see an active gulf/tropics (but nothing severe). The daunting task is while ENSO and seasonal variability happens, I'm afraid we've only recently seen the -PDO hit so it is quite young in development. It's a decadal oscillation so it will last several more years to come as it's a slow process hence the term it is derived from. So in short, the dry patterns will prevail with possible breaks in between.

That's how it typically plays out, first the Pacific shifts mode followed by persistent dry patterns. In the beginning it is mostly an atmospheric drought followed by soil drought. Last in line is the hydrological system, lakes and water storage, that gets hit last.

[gpsnowman]

Next week looks warm and comfortable. Let's hope the heat holds off for a while because summer could be nasty I'm afraid.

[rwfromkansas]

Huge portion of the country look to be in drought in that map. Depressing. I see lots of 100s this summer.

[Haris]

Euro keeps the snow chance alive for the metroplexers. I guess don't knock the chance off completely, but no doubt obviously the trends were negative. We'll see what short range models say I guess

[Cpv17]

Harold Taft (and no doubt many others) once said "a drought always ends in a flood, and a flood always ends in a drought." It's frustrating to see the losing streak we're on - where basically models come in bullish on QPF only to see that everything fizzles. Other than the nice soaking we got leading up to the 2/2 winter storm, we've been on the losing end of virtually every system since last fall. Once summer gets here the feedback loop will be hard to ignore. I guess we hope for an over-active tropics season or maybe we get lucky with an active Eastern Pacific storm season to funnel moisture over Mexico to us?

Seeing some early signs/signals for an active tropics in the gulf for the upcoming hurricane season and so hopefully that comes to fruition in terms of adding some beneficial rainfall and alleviating whatever drought conditions that exist across the state. That's typically been our source region for busting droughts when we've been locked into a pattern like this.

In the short range, I've seen some chatter on social media about a potential severe weather event late next week across portions of N & Central TX, but once again seeing is believing at his point and so definitely not biting on that just yet.

It would be nice to see an active gulf/tropics (but nothing severe). The daunting task is while ENSO and seasonal variability happens, I'm afraid we've only recently seen the -PDO hit so it is quite young in development. It's a decadal oscillation so it will last several more years to come as it's a slow process hence the term it is derived from. So in short, the dry patterns will prevail with possible breaks in between.

That's how it typically plays out, first the Pacific shifts mode followed by persistent dry patterns. In the beginning it is mostly an atmospheric drought followed by soil drought. Last in line is the hydrological system, lakes and water storage, that gets hit last.

What exactly is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation?

[CaptinCrunch]

This Spring is already looking drier than normal, and when you see that severe weather is usually on the low end of the scale. Not saying there won't be any, but less opportunities for it.

As for Summer, I'm banking on a HOT dry summer, so I agree on the 100 degree days. Better get the AC tuned up I'm certain we are going to need it.

For the tropics being active, let's hope it stays to a minimum, but if those water temps hit high levels not only across the GOM but into the southern Atlantic then watch out for some monster canes.

[Ntxw]

Seeing some early signs/signals for an active tropics in the gulf for the upcoming hurricane season and so hopefully that comes to fruition in terms of adding some beneficial rainfall and alleviating whatever drought conditions that exist across the state. That's typically been our source region for busting droughts when we've been locked into a pattern like this.

In the short range, I've seen some chatter on social media about a potential severe weather event late next week across portions of N & Central TX, but once again seeing is believing at his point and so definitely not biting on that just yet.

It would be nice to see an active gulf/tropics (but nothing severe). The daunting task is while ENSO and seasonal variability happens, I'm afraid we've only recently seen the -PDO hit so it is quite young in development. It's a decadal oscillation so it will last several more years to come as it's a slow process hence the term it is derived from. So in short, the dry patterns will prevail with possible breaks in between.

That's how it typically plays out, first the Pacific shifts mode followed by persistent dry patterns. In the beginning it is mostly an atmospheric drought followed by soil drought. Last in line is the hydrological system, lakes and water storage, that gets hit last.

What exactly is the Pacific Decadal Oscillation?

It is sea spatial sea surface temperature anomaly tendencies over the North Pacific as a longer term background backed by ENSO. During -PDO, Ocean water along the west coast of North America tends to be colder than normal with a ring from Alaska to Mexico through the equatorial Pacific (Nina). Some question chicken or egg relationship. 2007-2014 during the last -PDO saw extreme drought, severe hot summers across the Great Plains, and La Ninas/cold neutral dominated this stretch.

2015-2020 saw the reverse during the +PDO and year after year we saw some record rains. Warm water prevailed along the North American west coast to tie in with El Nino in the tropics. It has since flipped back to severely negative.

El Nino/La Nina can flip year to year but the PDO is a slugging feature that can feed or abate an ENSO event.

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/pdo/

-PDO has one of the strongest correlations to our long term drought tendencies.
https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.0306738101

[Brent]

Yeah once again we've seen this rerun before....TX has been locked in to this pattern (La Nina influenced) for months and outside of the one big ice event in early Feb, it's been the same tired script regarding lack of precip (very little if any southern branch/pacific moisture to work with). Not surprised by it at all. Until we get out from under this pattern, I wouldn't trust models more than two days out as it relates to precip output and so I'm not even sure I would call this a bust in that the end result has been been fairly consistent throughout the entire winter.

I hear La Niña isn’t going anywhere anytime soon either.

Last I heard it's supposed to fade by summer but who knows. The February update had a 57 percent chance of neutral by June

But regardless if we can't get out of this drought yeah it's gonna be a very long summer

[rwfromkansas]

This Spring is already looking drier than normal, and when you see that severe weather is usually on the low end of the scale. Not saying there won't be any, but less opportunities for it.

As for Summer, I'm banking on a HOT dry summer, so I agree on the 100 degree days. Better get the AC tuned up I'm certain we are going to need it.

For the tropics being active, let's hope it stays to a minimum, but if those water temps hit high levels not only across the GOM but into the southern Atlantic then watch out for some monster canes.

Yeah, you need rain for severe weather....lol.

[bubba hotep]

18z HRRR & 3K NAM seem to favor the 12z Euro for N. Texas.

[Iceresistance]

18z GEFS is also looking better, 2-3 inches 10:1 Ratio in Tulsa, 1-2 inches in OKC & Tecumseh

DFW gets a dusting