Texas Spring 2022

[orangeblood]

!

[orangeblood]

Geez, the Euro has some major issues…just look at the mean snowfall forecast for todays system

[Quixotic]

12z Euro

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/ecmwf_full/2022030812/090/sn10_acc.us_sc.png

looks like banding to me

[cheezyWXguy]

I wonder why the nam is so much drier than the other models. Is it seeing insufficient moisture in the lower levels?

[opticsguy]

I wonder why the nam is so much drier than the other models. Is it seeing insufficient moisture in the lower levels?

The NAM domain doesn't go way out into the Pacific where moisture might be 84 hours out?

[Cerlin]

I wonder why the nam is so much drier than the other models. Is it seeing insufficient moisture in the lower levels?

NAM isn't quite in its good range yet. By 00z-12z Wednesday it should have a better grasp on the moisture levels.

[Brent]

Nice way to cap off winter maybe? still wouldnt surprise me if there's another threat though even though it appears theres a big warmup next week again

[Haris]

That’s what you want Dallas.

Cut that low off

[orangeblood]

[url]https://i.ibb.co/hmShr1s/3-B37-BCF7-95-D7-46-B9-BBFE-C4427-B9-DCFED.png [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/vhrx30f/A6-BAD50-D-C644-4-F65-A63-E-D58-D6673-F267.png [/url]

That’s what you want Dallas.

Cut that low off

850 temps look plenty cold...El Paso is the sweet spot for DFW and it's been that way for the back half of this winter season

[HockeyTx82]

For this being 3 days away sure is quiet here....

[Brent]

For this being 3 days away sure is quiet here....

I wonder if some people have just moved on because yeah usually this place would be hopping

[Haris]

For this being 3 days away sure is quiet here....

I wonder if some people have just moved on because yeah usually this place would be hopping

Also high bust potential. Lots of models showing little to nothing so that’s why I think most of us are cautious

[HockeyTx82]

For this being 3 days away sure is quiet here....

I wonder if some people have just moved on because yeah usually this place would be hopping

Also high bust potential. Lots of models showing little to nothing so that’s why I think most of us are cautious

Well seeing as we had Thundersleet here in Ponder today, and like 4 sleet storms, I like my chances for Friday. Heck, roofs with shaded areas had sleet pellets from earlier still on them when I went running tonight.

[Captmorg70]

I wonder if some people have just moved on because yeah usually this place would be hopping

Also high bust potential. Lots of models showing little to nothing so that’s why I think most of us are cautious

Well seeing as we had Thundersleet here in Ponder today, and like 4 sleet storms, I like my chances for Friday. Heck, roofs with shaded areas had sleet pellets from earlier still on them when I went running tonight.

The NAM showing a whole lot of nothing probably is causing people to not get excited. Also, Icon and GFS look much less impressive than the last couple days

[dhweather]

It may end up a positively tilted and moisture starved trough, thus little excitement.

Or maybe it is due to spring break?

[Cerlin]

00z NAM was a step in the right direction with higher accumulated precip over Oklahoma…not any change for DFW with regards to moisture. Next 24 hours should see the moisture move on shore and give the NAM better initial conditions.

[Brent]

00z NAM was a step in the right direction with higher accumulated precip over Oklahoma…not any change for DFW with regards to moisture. Next 24 hours should see the moisture move on shore and give the NAM better initial conditions.

I will say the NAM did terrible during the big snowstorm up here in February so I dunno how serious I would take it especially at this range. If it still looks bad tomorrow night then maybe there's a trend down there

Although it's definitely more marginal down in DFW vs up here

[Cerlin]

00z NAM was a step in the right direction with higher accumulated precip over Oklahoma…not any change for DFW with regards to moisture. Next 24 hours should see the moisture move on shore and give the NAM better initial conditions.

I will say the NAM did terrible during the big snowstorm up here in February so I dunno how serious I would take it especially at this range. If it still looks bad tomorrow night then maybe there's a trend down there

Although it's definitely more marginal down in DFW vs up here

Yeah good point, we’re just in that weird spot where the globals lose accuracy but not enough good high res are in range (unless the NAM gets this one right).

[cstrunk]

I predict another cold, rainy day for Longview on Friday.

[CaptinCrunch]

Maps and predictions don't mean much till that 72 hr window, so expect things to pick up here today.

NAM did really well with temps
ICON did well with precipitation and amounts
GFS, GEFS, & EURO pretty much was out to lunch for last 2 events.

Giving the fact that it will be cold Friday, and we'll have returning moisture starting today I think we will probably see something Friday. May just be a dusting, may just be sleet, may be a few inches of snow, or a big fat nothing for everyone.