2022 Indicators (SSTs/SAL/MSLP/Shear/Steering/Instability) and >Day 16 Models

[Category5Kaiju]

While we are rightfully and obviously fixated on how the ENSO state progresses, there's no denying that if the current Atlantic sst anomaly profile holds, then we will likely be in for yet another busy year solely based on thermodynamics.

[AlphaToOmega]

Assuming this verifies and is a harbinger for the rest of spring, it would mean that +ENSO is becoming less likely. We should still not call it before the spring, but trends look strong for a La Nina (i.e. a dry Sun Belt, a warm Pacific Northwest, and an inactive Pacific Hurricane Season). The CFSv2 is showing a strong MJO over the Maritime Continent, only to have it weaken once it enters the West Pacific.

[AlphaToOmega]

So... I guess the CanSIPS has a very creative interpretation of ASO

[Yellow Evan]

So... I guess the CanSIPS has a very creative interpretation of ASO
https://i.postimg.cc/fLnH1CyT/cansips-chi200-Mean-month-global-7.png

This is simply a sign of screwed up model physics.

[AlphaToOmega]

So... I guess the CanSIPS has a very creative interpretation of ASO
https://i.postimg.cc/fLnH1CyT/cansips-chi200-Mean-month-global-7.png

This is simply a sign of screwed up model physics.

They need to fix that ROFL

[AlphaToOmega]

According to this, we would be seeing two major easterly wind bursts over the equatorial Pacific over the next few weeks. Fortunately, this means very little, for spring does not start until March 20.

[AlphaToOmega]

For people sensitive to current conditions, this should be a matter of some relief to those people. The MDR has cooled significantly compared to average, and the Atlantic Nino has done the opposite. An Atlantic Nino would push the ITCZ farther south, limiting late-season development. Pre-season fluctuations happen, and pre-season conditions mean absolutely nothing for the upcoming season.

[Kingarabian]

It's cooled down some but the Atlantic is still pretty warm compared to average. Nino regions starting to warm up though.

[wxman57]

Most seasonal signals point to above-average activity this year. Probably neutral Nino 3.4 area, so no inhibiting factor of El Nino. AMO is about neutral now, after being warm for the past 6 months or so. Hard to predict where it will be this summer. No real inhibiting factor.

[SFLcane]

Most seasonal signals point to above-average activity this year. Probably neutral Nino 3.4 area, so no inhibiting factor of El Nino. AMO is about neutral now, after being warm for the past 6 months or so. Hard to predict where it will be this summer. No real inhibiting factor.

Busy year ahead folks potentially..wxman57 onboard

[AlphaToOmega]

Most seasonal signals point to above-average activity this year. Probably neutral Nino 3.4 area, so no inhibiting factor of El Nino. AMO is about neutral now, after being warm for the past 6 months or so. Hard to predict where it will be this summer. No real inhibiting factor.

Busy year ahead folks potentially..wxman57 onboard

It is early, but things seem favorable for an active season just from looking at the models: Africa will likely make the AMM positive; the ENSO is shaping up to be negative (not ready to make a definitive call, it could always surprise us with an El Nino); the MDR could be significantly above-average this year. However, these were things both 2020 and 2021 shared. We know nothing in terms of MJO strength, though; if the MJO is strong, that means the windows of opportunity for development would be shorter and vice-versa. We also know nothing about the Atlantic Nino; if that is strongly positive, the ITCZ would be suppressed to the south, suppressing Caribbean development; also, the strong Atlantic Nino we saw last year caused the MDR to be so cold that the AMM was just barely positive for ASO (positive by around 0.1). We just have to wait and see.

[Category5Kaiju]

It's honestly stunning to see how signs are pointing possibly toward a seventh above average Atlantic season. Since 2016, whether it's due to a highly fortuitous ENSO state evolution or some other factor, the Atlantic has been genuinely relentless.

[AnnularCane]

It's honestly stunning to see how signs are pointing possibly toward a seventh above average Atlantic season. Since 2016, whether it's due to a highly fortuitous ENSO state evolution or some other factor, the Atlantic has been genuinely relentless.

I know, I halfway wasn't expecting it and have kind of a "believe it when I see it" attitude.

Also maybe because of course, it's still a little early.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

It's honestly stunning to see how signs are pointing possibly toward a seventh above average Atlantic season. Since 2016, whether it's due to a highly fortuitous ENSO state evolution or some other factor, the Atlantic has been genuinely relentless.

The active WAM is definitely one of the main culprits to blame for this current high-activity streak. Strong wave train, warms up MDR in time for peak season, handicaps +ENSO...pretty much a perfect storm of sorts (no pun intended ) to produce a consistently active Atlantic. Wonder how long it could last - definitely a possibility that AGW could be prolonging this strong WAM/ASW period for much longer than anticipated and may also be contributing to its dominance in the global atmospheric circulation as well. Something to think about for sure.

[Category5Kaiju]

It's honestly stunning to see how signs are pointing possibly toward a seventh above average Atlantic season. Since 2016, whether it's due to a highly fortuitous ENSO state evolution or some other factor, the Atlantic has been genuinely relentless.

The active WAM is definitely one of the main culprits to blame for this current high-activity streak. Strong wave train, warms up MDR in time for peak season, handicaps +ENSO...pretty much a perfect storm of sorts (no pun intended ) to produce a consistently active Atlantic. Wonder how long it could last - definitely a possibility that AGW could be prolonging this strong WAM/ASW period for much longer than anticipated and may also be contributing to its dominance in the global atmospheric circulation as well. Something to think about for sure.

You know, at this point, I just have to wonder this: as long as that strong WAM lasts, I am curious to see if that actually serves as an external factor in unfavorably rigging the chances of a solid El Nino from happening. If for whatever reason 2023 does not bring an El Nino (that'll be an issue worth talking about after this season), then I would be truly amazed.

[SFLcane]

Just have that feeling it’s going to be another wild season.

 https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1498727519238774784

[cycloneye]

Just have that feeling it’s going to be another wild season.

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1498727519238774784?

When you begin to open eyes so early, yikes.

[AlphaToOmega]

Just have that feeling it’s going to be another wild season.

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1498727519238774784?

So far, the CanSIPS has been crap with VP anomalies.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Just have that feeling it’s going to be another wild season.

https://twitter.com/bennollweather/status/1498727519238774784?

So far, the CanSIPS has been crap with VP anomalies.

Everything but the SST graphics has been bugged for the longest time on Tropical Tidbits, not sure what is going on.
I do have a subscription to weathermodels.com, however, and the precip anomaly maps are fine on there interestingly enough:

[SFLcane]

These waters are going to be much warmer come April! Not many if any cold fronts coming. Quite impressive and already supports a cat 2 in March.

 https://twitter.com/stormchaserjs/status/1499012508220280836