Ummm... GFDL goes LOOPY with Invest 97L

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Stormsfury
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Ummm... GFDL goes LOOPY with Invest 97L

#1 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Nov 11, 2003 3:18 pm

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdltc2.cgi ... =Animation
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#2 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Nov 11, 2003 3:20 pm

Looking deeper into the 950mb Vorticity ... the GFDL takes the LLS currently NW of PR and does a 360º Loop, meanwhile the large cluster of convection is pulled and drawn N or NNE and then develops its own identity until it's absorbed by the strong extratropical system in the ATL.

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfdltc2.cgi ... =Animation
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#3 Postby stormchazer » Tue Nov 11, 2003 3:25 pm

Thats a scenario PR does not want to materialize. PR might be covered with the ATL if that were to happen.
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#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Nov 11, 2003 3:31 pm

Not something I like at all here in PR.
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#5 Postby btangy » Tue Nov 11, 2003 3:52 pm

UKMET has something similar... interesting scenario
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#6 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Nov 11, 2003 3:59 pm

btangy wrote:UKMET has something similar... interesting scenario


Well, not exactly ... whereas the GFDL splits the energy, the GFDL develops the MLC with another area of vorticity and gets swept up to the northeast by the strong extratropical low in the ATL ... the UKMET does not, and also doesn't reach down with such a strong full latitude trough and extratropical low in Canada and sweep the system NE out to sea ... IMHO, this is NOT the correct situation (and one of the model biases I've noticed with such vorticity maximas.) ...

http://met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/ukmettc2.cg ... =Animation
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#7 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Nov 11, 2003 7:29 pm

Very very interesting looping on those model(s), I must say!

With this sort of track, a confident movement out to sea isn't too high.
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#8 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Nov 11, 2003 7:34 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:Very very interesting looping on those model(s), I must say!

With this sort of track, a confident movement out to sea isn't too high.


Take a look at the other thread I started today ... there's overwhelming support that the main clump of 97L does get swept out to sea ...

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=18686
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#9 Postby ColdFront77 » Tue Nov 11, 2003 7:55 pm

Read it SF and responding to the forecast model data that you posted.

The models have a point or they wouldn't represent this sort of loop. If and when they change, they still showed the looping of this feature.
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#10 Postby Stormsfury » Tue Nov 11, 2003 7:59 pm

ColdFront77 wrote:Read it SF and responding to the forecast model data that you posted.

The models have a point or they wouldn't represent this sort of loop. If and when they change, they still showed the looping of this feature.


No prob., Tom ... just wanted to give you the scoop with the rest of them from the same time frame ...
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