#6440 Postby txtwister78 » Thu Feb 24, 2022 12:36 pm
Clearly this was a bust with QPF by the models, but I will say Ice is Ice and so once the temps dropped into the mid 20's up in NTX and parts of CTX, travel was going to become dangerous at times (especially on bridges/overpasses with the drizzle in place) so while technically speaking a WWA would have sufficed for this event, I understand why WSW's were used. So, in that regard, I don't think the public in general would view this particular QPF "bust" the same as other weather scenarios. While I think there can be a danger from a "credibility" standpoint in overuse of WSW's for every winter weather related event, I don't see that in play here in terms of how the general public will perceive that as mentioned above (Ice is dangerous regardless of specific amounts).
This may be a topic for another time and perhaps the mets on the board could comment later, but I've often wondered whether we should simply use watches and warnings for winter weather similar to how we forecast/issue guidance for severe weather? Example, when this was clearly a freezing rain event based on sounding data and the pattern in general, I've wondered why not just use a freezing rain watch/warning to specifically define the threat to the public as opposed to using a WSW which encompasses more winter weather scenarios that are of much greater significance/impact. In other words use the WSW for long duration/truly impactful snowstorms/sleet. If I were not as informed about the weather in general, I would think that's as bad as it sounds (Winter Storm Warning). I completed a survey with the NWS a few years back where if I'm not mistaken, they were studying/getting feedback on eliminating the advisory in general for all weather criteria (not just winter) and looking at more defined products of guidance that specifically define the threat/wording to the public. Again, probably getting too much in the weeds here on that but would appreciate one of the board mets commenting later.
We all know model bust happen and so this isn't the first time and obviously won't be the last, but in the end, it does provide another reminder that events down here (particularly winter weather) are often real-time in nature as to how they ultimately unfold and so the moral of the story is use/post models at your own risk (especially several days out). We've all done it (myself included) and so it happens. Mother nature surprises all (even the most experienced Met) as I'm sure they would acknowledge.
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