Texas Winter 2021-2022

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Haris
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6121 Postby Haris » Tue Feb 22, 2022 1:36 pm

Could have a snowstorm sat if temp biases remain
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6122 Postby Snowman67 » Tue Feb 22, 2022 1:36 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:My home weather station (Ponder) went from 34F at 930AM to 42F at 1230PM.

That's interesting.


Has Wxman57 been anywhere near your weather station? His residual heat has a way of doing things like that.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6123 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Feb 22, 2022 2:02 pm

I kind of hate setups like this where it's playing the what if game. It's now basically just a question of if amounts will be heavy enough for problems etc.

I'm worried I will go to work and then it just goes crazy. I think tomorrow will be fine. Looks light enough that I think roads will be okay.

But, overnight Wednesday could be different.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6124 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 22, 2022 2:06 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:I kind of hate setups like this where it's playing the what if game. It's now basically just a question of if amounts will be heavy enough for problems etc.

I'm worried I will go to work and then it just goes crazy. I think tomorrow will be fine. Looks light enough that I think roads will be okay.

But, overnight Wednesday could be different.


I would argue tomorrow could be the most dangerous. It will go below freezing tonight and if 20s by tomorrow morning and light precip occurs black ice/sleet would be an issue when most expects it Thursday.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6125 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 22, 2022 2:09 pm

Ntxw wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:I kind of hate setups like this where it's playing the what if game. It's now basically just a question of if amounts will be heavy enough for problems etc.

I'm worried I will go to work and then it just goes crazy. I think tomorrow will be fine. Looks light enough that I think roads will be okay.

But, overnight Wednesday could be different.


I would argue tomorrow could be the most dangerous. It will go below freezing tonight and if 20s by tomorrow morning and light precip occurs black ice would be an issue when most expects it Thursday.


Yep, more sporadic tomorrow so can go from dry 70 mph down the highway to an ice rink in a matter of a few miles
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6126 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 22, 2022 2:10 pm

orangeblood wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:I kind of hate setups like this where it's playing the what if game. It's now basically just a question of if amounts will be heavy enough for problems etc.

I'm worried I will go to work and then it just goes crazy. I think tomorrow will be fine. Looks light enough that I think roads will be okay.

But, overnight Wednesday could be different.


I would argue tomorrow could be the most dangerous. It will go below freezing tonight and if 20s by tomorrow morning and light precip occurs black ice would be an issue when most expects it Thursday.


Yep, more sporadic tomorrow so can go from dry 70 mph down the highway to an ice rink in a matter of a few miles


Schools better be cautious tomorrow, frz drizzle can easily set in during school hours
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6127 Postby rwfromkansas » Tue Feb 22, 2022 2:11 pm

Ntxw wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:I kind of hate setups like this where it's playing the what if game. It's now basically just a question of if amounts will be heavy enough for problems etc.

I'm worried I will go to work and then it just goes crazy. I think tomorrow will be fine. Looks light enough that I think roads will be okay.

But, overnight Wednesday could be different.


I would argue tomorrow could be the most dangerous. It will go below freezing tonight and if 20s by tomorrow morning and light precip occurs black ice/sleet would be an issue when most expects it Thursday.


Like the infamous day last year....

Some areas like where I live were fine. Others obviously not.

I am worried if we have drizzle tomorrow, it will be awful.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6128 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Feb 22, 2022 2:13 pm

Anyone know if there have been any salting efforts done on DNT?
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6129 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 22, 2022 2:14 pm

rwfromkansas wrote:
Ntxw wrote:
rwfromkansas wrote:I kind of hate setups like this where it's playing the what if game. It's now basically just a question of if amounts will be heavy enough for problems etc.

I'm worried I will go to work and then it just goes crazy. I think tomorrow will be fine. Looks light enough that I think roads will be okay.

But, overnight Wednesday could be different.


I would argue tomorrow could be the most dangerous. It will go below freezing tonight and if 20s by tomorrow morning and light precip occurs black ice/sleet would be an issue when most expects it Thursday.


Like the infamous day last year....

Some areas like where I live were fine. Others obviously not.

I am worried if we have drizzle tomorrow, it will be awful.


Yeah temperature is key. 30-32 isn't efficient but below 30 it freezes on contact almost. Any elevated roads don't stand much of a chance.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6130 Postby HockeyTx82 » Tue Feb 22, 2022 2:23 pm

Snowman67 wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:My home weather station (Ponder) went from 34F at 930AM to 42F at 1230PM.

That's interesting.


Has Wxman57 been anywhere near your weather station? His residual heat has a way of doing things like that.


I don't think he travels this far north this time of year. Too cold for him.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6131 Postby orangeblood » Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:15 pm

Hi-Res WRF now picking up on a band moving through Metroplex before rush hour tomorrow, morning commute could be rough

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Last edited by orangeblood on Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6132 Postby wxman57 » Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:20 pm

HockeyTx82 wrote:
Snowman67 wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:My home weather station (Ponder) went from 34F at 930AM to 42F at 1230PM.

That's interesting.


Has Wxman57 been anywhere near your weather station? His residual heat has a way of doing things like that.


I don't think he travels this far north this time of year. Too cold for him.


I can have a very broad reach across Texas. I notice that the shallow cold air is modifying quickly at DFW - up to 45 there now. Just a little freezing rain/sleet up there Wed/Thu then it's bye-bye winter weather for this season.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6133 Postby Quixotic » Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:26 pm

wxman57 wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:
Snowman67 wrote:
Has Wxman57 been anywhere near your weather station? His residual heat has a way of doing things like that.


I don't think he travels this far north this time of year. Too cold for him.


I can have a very broad reach across Texas. I notice that the shallow cold air is modifying quickly at DFW - up to 45 there now. Just a little freezing rain/sleet up there Wed/Thu then it's bye-bye winter weather for this season.


Only 16 degrees colder than forecast as recently as early this morning.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6134 Postby TeamPlayersBlue » Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:36 pm

orangeblood wrote:Geez, check out the latest Euro ENS EPO forecast….good luck with that March warmup Wxman57

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/epo/box/1645488000-2vlYW%20wJfXycgrb2.png


the jet extension into the Pacific, as a result of the MJO, may have something to do with this. Not complaining!
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6135 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:48 pm

Winter Storm Warning in effect for my area starting Tomorrow Morning :double:
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6136 Postby Ntxw » Tue Feb 22, 2022 3:53 pm

TeamPlayersBlue wrote:
orangeblood wrote:Geez, check out the latest Euro ENS EPO forecast….good luck with that March warmup Wxman57

https://images.weatherbell.com/oscillation/ecmwf-ensemble-nhem-avg/epo/box/1645488000-2vlYW%20wJfXycgrb2.png


the jet extension into the Pacific, as a result of the MJO, may have something to do with this. Not complaining!


This has been showing up much of the past week on the ENs. Freakishly strong agreement for long range of AK ridge and better AO (natural seasonal weakening of PV). Suspect after moderation period we see some anomalous cold snap for March.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6137 Postby Texas Snow » Tue Feb 22, 2022 4:01 pm

FWD expands advisory southeastward but leaves the rest as is.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6138 Postby TheProfessor » Tue Feb 22, 2022 4:04 pm

Boo I'm ready for spring and thunderstorms. That thunder last Wednesday/Thursday spoiled me.
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6139 Postby Brent » Tue Feb 22, 2022 4:06 pm

Winter Storm Warning here mentioning thunderstorms possible :double: up to an inch of sleet and a half inch of ice
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Re: Texas Winter 2021-2022

#6140 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Feb 22, 2022 4:08 pm

wxman57 wrote:
HockeyTx82 wrote:
Snowman67 wrote:
Has Wxman57 been anywhere near your weather station? His residual heat has a way of doing things like that.


I don't think he travels this far north this time of year. Too cold for him.


I can have a very broad reach across Texas. I notice that the shallow cold air is modifying quickly at DFW - up to 45 there now. Just a little freezing rain/sleet up there Wed/Thu then it's bye-bye winter weather for this season.


Up to 45? It was just 38 there like 3 hours ago. That’s discouraging.
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