SIO : BATSIRAI - Post-Tropical
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
120kts looks solid to me for now. Interesting how the JTWC has it weakening a bit before ramping up again. Maybe ERC potential? Either way, like I've said before, this has potential be a major disaster for Madagascar. Latest forecast has a 125kt monster coming in. I really hope everyone there is taking proper precautions.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 FEB 2022 Time : 044500 UTC
Lat : 18:22:12 S Lon : 57:50:24 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 953mb / 102kts
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.8 6.2
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km
Center Temp : -14.1C Cloud Region Temp : -74.2C
Scene Type : EYE
Subtropical Adjustment : OFF
Extratropical Adjustment : OFF
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 FEB 2022 Time : 044500 UTC
Lat : 18:22:12 S Lon : 57:50:24 E
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 953mb / 102kts
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.8 6.2
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 16 km
Center Temp : -14.1C Cloud Region Temp : -74.2C
Scene Type : EYE
Subtropical Adjustment : OFF
Extratropical Adjustment : OFF
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
OW embedded in W. Probably around 125 knots on the dot, though making a run at Category 5 with a pending ERC.
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1488798032451837953
To me, this is a Category 5.
As usual to see. MFR and JTWC underestimating TCs in this basin.
To me, this is a Category 5.
As usual to see. MFR and JTWC underestimating TCs in this basin.
Last edited by Hurricane2021 on Sun Mar 06, 2022 12:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- mrbagyo
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
INSAT 3D & INSAT 3R
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
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- cycloneye
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
Still cat 4 at 12z.
08S BATSIRAI 220202 1200 18.9S 56.7E SHEM 125 932
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
cycloneye wrote:Still cat 4 at 12z.08S BATSIRAI 220202 1200 18.9S 56.7E SHEM 125 932
I don’t know why they’re saying it slightly weakened. It looks to either still be at 130 kt or at 135 kt. Maybe they think the double eyewalls on microwave have caused a bit of weakening, but satellite presentation hasn’t changed much.
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- mrbagyo
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
meteosat loops
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- mrbagyo
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
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- Hurricanehink
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
Nearly 1500 mm of rain in 48 hours at the Commerson crater in #LaReunion.
The wind is very violent on the west of the island this evening, up to 202 km/h at Piton Maido and 135 km/h at the Port on the coast.
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- cycloneye
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
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- doomhaMwx
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
A drifting buoy (WMO ID: 1401821) between Madagascar and La Reunion recorded a min sea-level pressure of 956.6 mb just outside of Batsirai's eye last night at 14Z.
Update: I should also add that the buoy recorded the upwelling caused by Batsirai over the past couple of days. Remarkable drop in SSTs from ~28C to ~25C!
Update: I should also add that the buoy recorded the upwelling caused by Batsirai over the past couple of days. Remarkable drop in SSTs from ~28C to ~25C!
Last edited by doomhaMwx on Fri Feb 04, 2022 8:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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- cycloneye
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
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- mrbagyo
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
Sustained wind in Mananjary is already up to 130 kph - pressure is down to 987 hPa
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- mrbagyo
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
Mamanjary is now on the left front quadrant eyewall
977 hPa / 167 kph (10 minute sustained) -
977 hPa / 167 kph (10 minute sustained) -
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- doomhaMwx
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
Looks like Mananjary really took a beating. The station there failed to send a report from 18Z onwards.
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- cycloneye
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
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Re: SIO : BATSIRAI - Tropical Cyclone
https://newsaf.cgtn.com/news/2022-02-11/Death-toll-from-cyclone-Batsirai-rises-to-111-in-Madagascar-17zCOal5jby/index.html
and even sadder news
I hope everyone there is doing okay
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