Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Haris]

As NTXW posted, Feb (and even March for N TX) is so much more reliable than peak Jan

[wxman57]

A comparison of the 12Z Canadian, European, and American models valid in 8 days at 6am on Thursday, February 3rd. GFS is fastest and most progressive with the upper-level feature. Just cold and dry across Texas. Euro is slower and deeper with the upper trough. Thus, more frozen precip across TX. Canadian is very slow with the upper trof, leading to widespread heavy winter precip. Which is correct? Perhaps somewhere between the GFS & Euro is what I'd expect. Maybe a little winter weather, but not a major storm. I reserve the right to change that forecast once all the models "have a clue".

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZFeb3Models.JPG

[txtwister78]

The 500mb maps on all models look promising no doubt for next week to varying degrees. I think the pause I have at least is not so much with overall pattern potential which as NTXW pointed out changed in a few days via what teleconnections were showing (that's what had me thinking early Feb was a no go), but more with the players (surface) that still must come into play to get what we all want out of that pattern hence the 5 day pause. No question it's probably as good a look as we've seen this winter so far in terms of getting all models on board for "something".

[Ntxw]

It is good to see raised heights and ridging focused in both the mid Atlantic and mid Pacific coasts rather than the southeast and southwest. We get a carving of the trough in the middle. Slows our flow and allows 500mb to deepen.

[rwfromkansas]

A comparison of the 12Z Canadian, European, and American models valid in 8 days at 6am on Thursday, February 3rd. GFS is fastest and most progressive with the upper-level feature. Just cold and dry across Texas. Euro is slower and deeper with the upper trough. Thus, more frozen precip across TX. Canadian is very slow with the upper trof, leading to widespread heavy winter precip. Which is correct? Perhaps somewhere between the GFS & Euro is what I'd expect. Maybe a little winter weather, but not a major storm. I reserve the right to change that forecast once all the models "have a clue".

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZFeb3Models.JPG

http://wxman57.com/images/12ZFeb3Models.JPG

I appreciate this comparison. It helps to see the why of the models, particularly how the digging and slow speed is so critical to bring the moisture up and make a decent storm. It's also interesting to see how the different scenarios change how much ice is involved vs. pure snow.

[wxman22]

[Cpv17]

Wow, there’s quite a discrepancy on the Euro vs GFS at hour 240. GFS hangs energy back out west, Euro pushes the whole trough east of us and has ridging building back in.

[Iceresistance]

Heavy snow is possible in SW Oklahoma & parts of Northern Texas

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0093.html

[orangeblood]

Wow, there’s quite a discrepancy on the Euro vs GFS at hour 240. GFS hangs energy back out west, Euro pushes the whole trough east of us and has ridging building back in.

The big potential event we're discussing is in the 7-8 day range, hour 168-192 and all look fairly similar until the 9-10 day range where they diverge

[Cpv17]

Wow, there’s quite a discrepancy on the Euro vs GFS at hour 240. GFS hangs energy back out west, Euro pushes the whole trough east of us and has ridging building back in.

The big potential event we're discussing is in the 7-8 day range, hour 168-192 and all look fairly similar until the 9-10 day range where they diverge

Yep and the GFS has possibly an even bigger event after that one but it’s out in fantasyland.

[Haris]

Not related to us 18z NAM making NE coast Twitter lose their shi*

I love it.

[orangeblood]

Wow, there’s quite a discrepancy on the Euro vs GFS at hour 240. GFS hangs energy back out west, Euro pushes the whole trough east of us and has ridging building back in.

The big potential event we're discussing is in the 7-8 day range, hour 168-192 and all look fairly similar until the 9-10 day range where they diverge

Yep and the GFS has possibly an even bigger event after that one but it’s out in fantasyland.

With plenty of cold air to tap into and 7 day Mean Height Anomalies looking like this, good chance of multiple winter weather events rolling through the southern plains starting first 7-10 days of Feb. Although not even close to perfect, The ensembles are the best tool we have for the 8-14 day range

[Brent]

Heavy snow is possible in SW Oklahoma & parts of Northern Texas

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0093.html

Wish it would keep going east. We got a shot but not as good as back west

But I'm really interested in next week all kinds of potential hopefully being February too makes it legit

[ThunderSleetDreams]

The big potential event we're discussing is in the 7-8 day range, hour 168-192 and all look fairly similar until the 9-10 day range where they diverge

Yep and the GFS has possibly an even bigger event after that one but it’s out in fantasyland.

With plenty of cold air to tap into and 7 day Mean Height Anomalies looking like this, good chance of multiple winter weather events rolling through the southern plains starting first 7-10 days of Feb. Although not even close to perfect, The ensembles are the best tool we have for the 8-14 day range

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-ensemble-all-avg/namer/z500_anom_7day/1643198400/1644364800-fcU6rQxg5AI.png

That gives me some weather tingles! Yummy!

[Ntxw]

Not related to us 18z NAM making NE coast Twitter lose their shi*

I love it.

Love it. Keep them on their heels. From 2-3ft to zip, ultimate Lucy.

[Iceresistance]

Winter Storm Warning considered for SW Oklahoma, up to 6 inches expected there now.

Snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour is coming my way, my goodness, it's going to be fun!

[Ntxw]

18z gfs slowed a bit and is a big impact system for next week.

#FabFeb
#TheBigOne

If we can get a phase then we can really take it to town.

[Iceresistance]

18z gfs slowed a bit and is a big impact system for next week.

#FabFeb
#TheBigOne

If we can get a phase then we can really take it to town.

That system is a crippling Ice Storm for DFW

[ElectricStorm]

I need one good snowstorm per year (no grass/barely any grass showing) so I'm all for getting something good. As long as there's no ice.

[orangeblood]

18z gfs slowed a bit and is a big impact system for next week.

#FabFeb
#TheBigOne

If we can get a phase then we can really take it to town.

Good trend on GFS, going towards what the Euro and CMC have been showing