Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Cpv17]

I think we can safely say DFW won't even see flurries, at least me as far west as DFW. Hopefully parts of OK can cash in, and hopefully, this isn't the last shot.

This airmass will have deep cold. The 540 line is all the way down into southeast TX.

[Iceresistance]

I'm now expecting highs below 30 Saturday.

[rwfromkansas]

I think we can safely say DFW won't even see flurries, at least me as far west as DFW. Hopefully parts of OK can cash in, and hopefully, this isn't the last shot.

This airmass will have deep cold. The 540 line is all the way down into southeast TX.

That is unusual to not have to battle the 540 line in Texas. Admittedly, I had not looked at recent models, just was going by conversation here.

[wxman57]

I think we can safely say DFW won't even see flurries, at least me as far west as DFW. Hopefully parts of OK can cash in, and hopefully, this isn't the last shot.

This airmass will have deep cold. The 540 line is all the way down into southeast TX.

The 540 thickness line may get close to SE TX, but surface temps will be in the 40s and the air aloft will hold less moisture than the middle of the Sahara.

[Ntxw]

I think we can safely say DFW won't even see flurries, at least me as far west as DFW. Hopefully parts of OK can cash in, and hopefully, this isn't the last shot.

This airmass will have deep cold. The 540 line is all the way down into southeast TX.

That is unusual to not have to battle the 540 line in Texas. Admittedly, I had not looked at recent models, just was going by conversation here.

It can be in shallow Arctic air mass. This one is deep ULL coming down from the North. It's colder aloft than at the surface.

[Cpv17]

I think we can safely say DFW won't even see flurries, at least me as far west as DFW. Hopefully parts of OK can cash in, and hopefully, this isn't the last shot.

This airmass will have deep cold. The 540 line is all the way down into southeast TX.

The 540 thickness line may get close to SE TX, but surface temps will be in the 40s and the air aloft will hold less moisture than the middle of the Sahara.

Every model I’ve looked at has the 540 line into southeast TX. This airmass will be much colder aloft than at the surface but it’ll still be cold at the surface. I’m expecting mid to upper 20 wind chills for most of southeast TX Sunday morning.

[wxman57]

Every model I’ve looked at has the 540 line into southeast TX. This airmass will be much colder aloft than at the surface but it’ll still be cold at the surface. I’m expecting mid to upper 20 wind chills for most of southeast TX Sunday morning.

The 540 line reaching SE TX often means a possible light freeze, depending on it's position. In this case, we are looking at lows in the mid 30s and windy with a high in the low 50s. Generally, that's about 10 deg below normal. By the next day, temps will be a little above normal. Temps into the 70s by Tuesday. Typical winter weather.

[txtwister78]

I'll take fun and games for a 1000 please....edit: some ensemble support for this so definitely something to "watch" going forward.

[Iceresistance]

The Weekend Storm system has came ashore over Washington State, it will produce snow in the Northern, Central, & parts of Southern Plains this weekend


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/GOES17-WUS-08-1000x1000.gif

[wxman57]

I'll take fun and games for a 1000 please....

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/instant_ptype/1642075200/1642744800-CIMU6B4EPEk.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1642075200/1642777200-P6cJdtdroeg.png

My comment on the 12Z GFS winter weather in TX next Friday:

[Iceresistance]

I'll take fun and games for a 1000 please....

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/instant_ptype/1642075200/1642744800-CIMU6B4EPEk.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1642075200/1642777200-P6cJdtdroeg.png

My comment on the 12Z GFS winter weather in TX next Friday:

http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg

For some reason, your images are not working on my screen.

[Iceresistance]

12z GFS has trended the Weekend system a little more west than 6z

[rwfromkansas]

I'll take fun and games for a 1000 please....

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/instant_ptype/1642075200/1642744800-CIMU6B4EPEk.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1642075200/1642777200-P6cJdtdroeg.png

My comment on the 12Z GFS winter weather in TX next Friday:

http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg

For some reason, your images are not working on my screen.

I had to view it on my phone on data only. I think my school blocked the link on wifi.

[HockeyTx82]

My comment on the 12Z GFS winter weather in TX next Friday:

http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg

For some reason, your images are not working on my screen.

I had to view it on my phone on data only. I think my school blocked the link on wifi.

I'm having issues of late too on my phone while on data.

[Ntxw]

For some reason, your images are not working on my screen.

I had to view it on my phone on data only. I think my school blocked the link on wifi.

I'm having issues of late too on my phone while on data.

He had Lucy teeing up for the kick.

[TropicalTundra]

12k NAM looks like winter weather mayhem for the Atlanta metro area. 2-3 inches of snow (maybe 4) along with probably 1" of ice and maybe 0.5" of sleet. Basically the February snow storm from last year but all at once and not extremely cold. The surface level temps look to fluctuate between 31-34F and upper levels look to fluctuate as well so precipitation changeovers should happen. Of course we're still 3 days out but if this NAM run verifies it'll be catastrophic most likely.

[TropicalTundra]

My comment on the 12Z GFS winter weather in TX next Friday:

http://wxman57.com/images/Lucy.jpg

For some reason, your images are not working on my screen.

I had to view it on my phone on data only. I think my school blocked the link on wifi.

I'm pretty sure the network administrators could have blocked the site on school wifi. When on data they can't block websites since they can't access you cellular data. I'm pretty sure if they have blocked an image hosting website like Imgur, it won't show the image since the image is trying to be loaded from the Imgur post. That's why it may be showing a box with "Image" next to it.

[orangeblood]

I'll take fun and games for a 1000 please....edit: some ensemble support for this so definitely something to "watch" going forward.

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/instant_ptype/1642075200/1642744800-CIMU6B4EPEk.png

https://images.weatherbell.com/model/gfs-deterministic/tx/total_snow_10to1/1642075200/1642777200-P6cJdtdroeg.png

Yep, need several upper level features from both the Polar and Pacific jets to come together but January 20-21st looks like the first potential big winter weather event for Texas of the season! Not too confident yet but ensembles (and occasionally Globals) continue to hone in on Jan. 20-24th for a potential Major southern/eastern US storm system

[Iceresistance]

For some reason, your images are not working on my screen.

I had to view it on my phone on data only. I think my school blocked the link on wifi.

I'm pretty sure the network administrators could have blocked the site on school wifi. When on data they can't block websites since they can't access you cellular data. I'm pretty sure if they have blocked an image hosting website like Imgur, it won't show the image since the image is trying to be loaded from the Imgur post. That's why it may be showing a box with "Image" next to it.

My problem does not have a blocked site, I could have images that can't load anymore here right now.

[cheezyWXguy]

I know there’s been a lot of talk about our source region warming up in the coming weeks, but looking at the runs that actually go that far out (I.e, gfs) I see no consistency to either credit nor discredit that notion. Obviously, there are plenty on here that know more than I do, in which case, keep at it because I love reading your posts, but I’m personally done playing the long range guessing game until there’s some semblance of consistency.