Texas Winter 2021-2022

[Iceresistance]

It's POURING outside with Lightning right now.

[orangeblood]

Maybe some possible hopes for TX in early January with the 06z GEFS showing the NAO becoming more western based or neutral along with a continuing -PNA, possible Arctic air sliding down east of the Rockies towards towards the south central US.

Yeah, looking at all of the extended/long range indices something is brewing for the 1st week of January. Coincides with the much anticipated MJO swing into Phase 8....with the Massive Build Up of Siberian Air in Western Canada, the hammer should drop down into the lower 48 when the Phase 8 swing happens. Mother Nature always seems to "balance" things out over extended periods and with the extreme Warm December, the pendulum could easily swing the other way quickly

[funster]

Overnight GFS says "Ho! Ho! Ho!, Merry Warm Christmas!" Time for some bike riding.

http://wxman57.com/images/Christmas.png

Wow. These temps could help trigger some severe holiday storms. The warm muggy 70+ December mornings are getting ridiculous.

[Iceresistance]

See you in February maybe.

Larry Cosgrove signals the death knell. I do note a week or so ago he was saying it would get cold in Texas, so though I love the guy, he follows the models as much as anybody else.

"Now if you live in the south central states or Dixie (sorry, Texas...) you will be bypassed by the winter weather. The Midwest and Northeast stand to see the best chance for snow and ice (not a sure thing, but at least better odds than the southern and central tier. The Intermountain Region should see plenty of frozen precipitation, largely west of the Continental Divide. Alberta and Saskatchewan may have to endure routine bitter cold, with snow and wind events, until the January Thaw shows up around 1-10-2022."

But where is February?

[NDG]

Maybe some possible hopes for TX in early January with the 06z GEFS showing the NAO becoming more western based or neutral along with a continuing -PNA, possible Arctic air sliding down east of the Rockies towards towards the south central US.

Yeah, looking at all of the extended/long range indices something is brewing for the 1st week of January. Coincides with the much anticipated MJO swing into Phase 8....with the Massive Build Up of Siberian Air in Western Canada, the hammer should drop down into the lower 48 when the Phase 8 swing happens. Mother Nature always seems to "balance" things out over extended periods and with the extreme Warm December, the pendulum could easily swing the other way quickly

But the extended ECMWF keeps throwing a curve ball in the MJO forecast not in a hurry moving it out of phase 7 through early January.

[Iceresistance]

Most did not think that the MJO would Retrograde back to Phase 6, but it did!


https://s10.gifyu.com/images/It-did-Retrograde.gif

[orangeblood]

Maybe some possible hopes for TX in early January with the 06z GEFS showing the NAO becoming more western based or neutral along with a continuing -PNA, possible Arctic air sliding down east of the Rockies towards towards the south central US.

Yeah, looking at all of the extended/long range indices something is brewing for the 1st week of January. Coincides with the much anticipated MJO swing into Phase 8....with the Massive Build Up of Siberian Air in Western Canada, the hammer should drop down into the lower 48 when the Phase 8 swing happens. Mother Nature always seems to "balance" things out over extended periods and with the extreme Warm December, the pendulum could easily swing the other way quickly

But the extended ECMWF keeps throwing a curbed ball in the MJO forecast not in a hurry moving it out of phase 7 through early January.

It's a little more delayed than GFS but most indications point towards the swing happening....although painstakingly slow!!

[TropicalTundra]

No one going to talk about the NAMs, especially 12k and 3k? They have snow particularly in Midland/Abilene.

[wxman57]

No one going to talk about the NAMs, especially 12k and 3k? They have snow particularly in Midland/Abilene.

06Z GFS has it out there, too. Atmosphere may be cold enough in the higher elevations of west Texas tomorrow night. 00Z Euro has snow, too. The new 12Z GFS says "nope".

[Iceresistance]

The models are really trying to bring in the cold to Texas, but Heat Miser has discovered that he has the power to control the Texas Ridge!

[Ntxw]

Regardless of what happens we are staring down at one of the hottest Decembers on record and if some guidance are right potentially one of if not the hottest Christmas Day/period on record to come. Can still change some but wowzer! Can you even remember the last really cold Christmas ?

[harp]

The GFS may be hinting at some cold coming down around January 1st. I know it’s La La land. If it follows the same pattern, it will probably get shunted off to the east again.

[starsfan65]

The models are really trying to bring in the cold to Texas, but Heat Miser has discovered that he has the power to control the Texas Ridge!

He doesn't control our weather!!!!

[gboudx]

Regardless of what happens we are staring down at one of the hottest Decembers on record and if some guidance are right potentially one of if not the hottest Christmas Day/period on record to come. Can still change some but wowzer! Can you even remember the last really cold Christmas ?

Our begonias are still alive and thriving. Normally they would've been long dead by now. 57's voodoo control over the weather is quite strong this year.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Spring started early this year.

[AustinTXResident]

Regardless of what happens we are staring down at one of the hottest Decembers on record and if some guidance are right potentially one of if not the hottest Christmas Day/period on record to come. Can still change some but wowzer! Can you even remember the last really cold Christmas :lol:?

Of course. In Austin, 2011, 2010, 2009, 2000, 1998, 1990, 1987, 1985, 1984, 1983....

[Ntxw]

Regardless of what happens we are staring down at one of the hottest Decembers on record and if some guidance are right potentially one of if not the hottest Christmas Day/period on record to come. Can still change some but wowzer! Can you even remember the last really cold Christmas ?

Our begonias are still alive and thriving. Normally they would've been long dead by now. 57's voodoo control over the weather is quite strong this year.

Yep I've seen some good blooms still. Since 2000 and especially since 2010 warm December's have greatly outnumbered cold ones with the 2 hottest ever since 2015. Doesn't matter el nino, la Nina, or neutral December is representing more and more a Fall month rather than winter.

[Quixotic]

Regardless of what happens we are staring down at one of the hottest Decembers on record and if some guidance are right potentially one of if not the hottest Christmas Day/period on record to come. Can still change some but wowzer! Can you even remember the last really cold Christmas ?

2009

[Quixotic]

Birds say winter is coming, judging by the variety and number.

[AustinTXResident]

Warmest Decembers on Record So Far

Austin airport
Austin Camp Mabry
Brownsville
College Station
Dallas
Dallas/Fort Worth
Del Rio
Galveston
Laredo
Longview
McAllen
Midland/Odessa
San Angelo
Tyler

December records will not be set for a number of Texas locations, including Abilene, Amarillo, El Paso, San Antonio, and Victoria.

On the "possible" list are Beaumont/Port Arthur, Childress, Corpus Christi, Houston, Lubbock, Texarkana, Waco, and Wichita Falls.