Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
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- cycloneye
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Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
CSU
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2021-12.pdf --- December 9 Quantitative forecast --- Between 13-16 named storms
April 7
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-04.pdf --- April 7 seasonal forecast -- 19/9/4
June 2--- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-06.pdf --- 20/10/5
July 7 --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-07.pdf --- 20/10/5
August 4 --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-08.pdf --- 18/8/4
Two week forecast August 4-17 --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-0804.pdf
Two week forecast August 18-31 --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-0818.pdf
Two week forecast September 1-14 --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-0901.pdf
Two Week forecast September 15-28 --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-0915.pdf
Two Week forecast September 19-October 12 --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-0929.pdf
Two Week forecast October 13-26 --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-1013.pdf
Verification of the 2022 forecast --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-11.pdf
TSR
https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... er2022.pdf ---December 10 forecast --- 18/8/3
April 6:
https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... pr2022.pdf --- April 6 forecast --- 18/8/4 ACE 138
May 31 --- https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... on2022.pdf --- 18/8/4
July 7 --- https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... ly2021.pdf --- 18/9/4 --- ACE 150
August 9 --- https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... st2022.pdf --- 17/8/3 --- ACE 130
NOAA
May 24:
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa- ... ane-season --- 14-21 named storms
August 4: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa- ... ane-season ---14-20 named storms
CrownWeather Services
https://crownweather.com/index.php/disc ... d-march-9/ --- March 9 forecast --- 16/9/3
April 21 --- 21/9/4 ACE: 180
WeatherBell
March 12 forecast --- NS 18-22 / H 6-10 / MH 2-4 / Ace 140-180
June 7 forecast same as March
Accuweather
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... st/1164507 --- March 30 forecast ---16-20 named storms
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... st/1234187 --- August 18 --- 16 named storms
WeatherTiger
June https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/atl ... ok-954?s=r --- Between 16-23 named storms ACE:155
July https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/rea ... ricane?s=w --- Between 17-21 named storms --- ACE---164
August https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/wea ... ricane-d83 --- Between 17-20 named storms --- ACE 160
The Weather Channel
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... on-twc-csu --- 20/8/4
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... er-company --- June 16 --- 21/9/4
NCState
https://news.ncsu.edu/2022/04/2022-acti ... ne-season/ --- April 21 --- Between 17-21 named storms
Texas Hurricane Word Press
https://texashurricane.wordpress.com/ --- 14-22 named storms --- ACE--- 130-190
Earth Networks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16QLiumqURc --- May 19 --- 18/8/4
UKMET
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2022 ---18/9/4 --- ACE 176
ECMWF
https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/openchar ... 2206010000 --- June 5 --- 19/11/5
Meteo-France
https://meteofrance.mq/fr/climat/previs ... -pour-2022 --- June 6 --- 18/9 --- ACE 160
.
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2021-12.pdf --- December 9 Quantitative forecast --- Between 13-16 named storms
April 7
https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-04.pdf --- April 7 seasonal forecast -- 19/9/4
June 2--- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-06.pdf --- 20/10/5
July 7 --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-07.pdf --- 20/10/5
August 4 --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-08.pdf --- 18/8/4
Two week forecast August 4-17 --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-0804.pdf
Two week forecast August 18-31 --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-0818.pdf
Two week forecast September 1-14 --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-0901.pdf
Two Week forecast September 15-28 --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-0915.pdf
Two Week forecast September 19-October 12 --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-0929.pdf
Two Week forecast October 13-26 --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-1013.pdf
Verification of the 2022 forecast --- https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2022-11.pdf
TSR
https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... er2022.pdf ---December 10 forecast --- 18/8/3
April 6:
https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... pr2022.pdf --- April 6 forecast --- 18/8/4 ACE 138
May 31 --- https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... on2022.pdf --- 18/8/4
July 7 --- https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... ly2021.pdf --- 18/9/4 --- ACE 150
August 9 --- https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... st2022.pdf --- 17/8/3 --- ACE 130
NOAA
May 24:
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa- ... ane-season --- 14-21 named storms
August 4: https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa- ... ane-season ---14-20 named storms
CrownWeather Services
https://crownweather.com/index.php/disc ... d-march-9/ --- March 9 forecast --- 16/9/3
April 21 --- 21/9/4 ACE: 180
WeatherBell
March 12 forecast --- NS 18-22 / H 6-10 / MH 2-4 / Ace 140-180
June 7 forecast same as March
Accuweather
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... st/1164507 --- March 30 forecast ---16-20 named storms
https://www.accuweather.com/en/hurrican ... st/1234187 --- August 18 --- 16 named storms
WeatherTiger
June https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/atl ... ok-954?s=r --- Between 16-23 named storms ACE:155
July https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/rea ... ricane?s=w --- Between 17-21 named storms --- ACE---164
August https://weathertiger.substack.com/p/wea ... ricane-d83 --- Between 17-20 named storms --- ACE 160
The Weather Channel
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... on-twc-csu --- 20/8/4
https://weather.com/storms/hurricane/ne ... er-company --- June 16 --- 21/9/4
NCState
https://news.ncsu.edu/2022/04/2022-acti ... ne-season/ --- April 21 --- Between 17-21 named storms
Texas Hurricane Word Press
https://texashurricane.wordpress.com/ --- 14-22 named storms --- ACE--- 130-190
Earth Networks
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=16QLiumqURc --- May 19 --- 18/8/4
UKMET
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/w ... lantic2022 ---18/9/4 --- ACE 176
ECMWF
https://apps.ecmwf.int/webapps/openchar ... 2206010000 --- June 5 --- 19/11/5
Meteo-France
https://meteofrance.mq/fr/climat/previs ... -pour-2022 --- June 6 --- 18/9 --- ACE 160
.
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
TSR also begins as every year they do on December and they have 18/8/3.
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- Blown Away
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
2001 & 2012 were years TSR referenced following double La Nina's.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
cycloneye wrote:TSR also begins as every year they do on December and they have 18/8/3.
https://i.imgur.com/yvjL1p1.jpg
Jeez...I wonder when the last time was where the TSR's forecast was that high during December for the upcoming season. I personally cannot recall a time when they were already predicting that many hurricanes and NSs.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/ZtvXYFa.jpg
2001 & 2012 were years TSR referenced following double La Nina's.
2001 came after a triple lol.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Category5Kaiju wrote:cycloneye wrote:TSR also begins as every year they do on December and they have 18/8/3.
https://i.imgur.com/yvjL1p1.jpg
Jeez...I wonder when the last time was where the TSR's forecast was that high during December for the upcoming season. I personally cannot recall a time when they were already predicting that many hurricanes and NSs.
2010: https://www.tropicalstormrisk.com/docs/ ... ec2011.pdf
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
Not sure if the mods would consider these forecast expert, but they are from legitimate local network TV stations.
And they are something to break the ice early.
Btw, they are the same exact same forecast. I guess their affiliates?
https://www.wjcl.com/article/savannah-2 ... /39151803#
https://www.wesh.com/article/wesh-2022- ... /39164302#
And they are something to break the ice early.
Btw, they are the same exact same forecast. I guess their affiliates?
https://www.wjcl.com/article/savannah-2 ... /39151803#
https://www.wesh.com/article/wesh-2022- ... /39164302#
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- SFLcane
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
OuterBanker wrote:Not sure if the mods would consider these forecast expert, but they are from legitimate local network TV stations.
And they are something to break the ice early.
Btw, they are the same exact same forecast. I guess their affiliates?
https://www.wjcl.com/article/savannah-2 ... /39151803#
https://www.wesh.com/article/wesh-2022- ... /39164302#
Watch out Florida if they are correct!
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- cycloneye
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CrownWeather is up
CrownWeather is up with the forecast of 16/9/3. Here is graphic and the text is at the first post list.
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CrownWeather is up
cycloneye wrote:CrownWeather is up with the forecast of 16/9/3. Here is graphic and the text is at the first post list.
https://i.imgur.com/Rvy1h9u.jpg
Wow darn, LA is in the high hazard zone yet again.
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Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
- wxman57
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CrownWeather is up
One thing that seems odd with that Crown Weather forecast is the named storms to hurricane ratio. With so many weak, short-lived storms being named, the ratio last year was 33% of named storms becoming hurricanes. That would be about 5-6 hurricanes with 16 named storms, or 27 named storms with 9 hurricanes. Of course, I don't think the ratio of named storms being 3 times the number of hurricanes will likely occur. I'm actually thinking lower with hurricane numbers higher with major hurricanes and higher with named storms to take into account all the "shorties".
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- SFLcane
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CrownWeather is up
Watch out South Florida!
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CrownWeather is up
cycloneye wrote:CrownWeather is up with the forecast of 16/9/3. Here is graphic and the text is at the first post list.
https://i.imgur.com/Rvy1h9u.jpg
Holy cow. This is close to my own personal feelings for 2022, not a good sign to see so many in the yellow and red. Looks like yet another very active and impactful season is on the way!
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- cajungal
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CrownWeather is up
I see that SE Louisiana is in the red again. Finally got new roof last month. But still need to do the rest of the interior of the house. So praying for no more
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- wxman57
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CrownWeather is up
cajungal wrote:I see that SE Louisiana is in the red again. Finally got new roof last month. But still need to do the rest of the interior of the house. So praying for no more
I wouldn't get too excited about such landfall predictions. They're basically guesses based on where storms made landfall based on conditions that exist pre-season and (sometimes bad) predictions of what will be going on by Aug/Sep. It's particularly difficult to predict Gulf activity a long way out. Klotzbach and I have talked about this a number of times. We can kind of get a feel of how the MDR might be, but the Gulf is a different animal. I'll be seeing Phil at the NTWC in S. Padre in early April then at the NHC the following week.
Even if activity is above normal this year (seems likely), the Gulf could be quiet if the MDR is more active (early recurves).
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- Category5Kaiju
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CrownWeather is up
wxman57 wrote:cajungal wrote:I see that SE Louisiana is in the red again. Finally got new roof last month. But still need to do the rest of the interior of the house. So praying for no more
I wouldn't get too excited about such landfall predictions. They're basically guesses based on where storms made landfall based on conditions that exist pre-season and (sometimes bad) predictions of what will be going on by Aug/Sep. It's particularly difficult to predict Gulf activity a long way out. Klotzbach and I have talked about this a number of times. We can kind of get a feel of how the MDR might be, but the Gulf is a different animal. I'll be seeing Phil at the NTWC in S. Padre in early April then at the NHC the following week.
Even if activity is above normal this year (seems likely), the Gulf could be quiet if the MDR is more active (early recurves).
Just curious, but what factors exactly do these sorts of forecasts base their landfall risk zones on? From my understanding, isn't it extraordinarily early to tell anything in terms of land impacts?
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Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season: CrownWeather is up
Category5Kaiju wrote:wxman57 wrote:cajungal wrote:I see that SE Louisiana is in the red again. Finally got new roof last month. But still need to do the rest of the interior of the house. So praying for no more
I wouldn't get too excited about such landfall predictions. They're basically guesses based on where storms made landfall based on conditions that exist pre-season and (sometimes bad) predictions of what will be going on by Aug/Sep. It's particularly difficult to predict Gulf activity a long way out. Klotzbach and I have talked about this a number of times. We can kind of get a feel of how the MDR might be, but the Gulf is a different animal. I'll be seeing Phil at the NTWC in S. Padre in early April then at the NHC the following week.
Even if activity is above normal this year (seems likely), the Gulf could be quiet if the MDR is more active (early recurves).
Just curious, but what factors exactly do these sorts of forecasts base their landfall risk zones on? From my understanding, isn't it extraordinarily early to tell anything in terms of land impacts?
They probably use a combination of NAO, ITCZ latitude, and MDR-heaviness.
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- wxman57
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Re: Expert forecasts for 2022 North Atlantic Hurricane Season
OuterBanker wrote:Not sure if the mods would consider these forecast expert, but they are from legitimate local network TV stations.
And they are something to break the ice early.
Btw, they are the same exact same forecast. I guess their affiliates?
https://www.wjcl.com/article/savannah-2 ... /39151803#
https://www.wesh.com/article/wesh-2022- ... /39164302#
Looks like BS, to me. Predicting exact dates when lows will form 8 months out?
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