Texas Fall 2021

[CaptinCrunch]

Take any model run 2 weeks out with a grain of salt. By tomorrow those same models may have a snowstorm across Austin.

Remember NTX average 1st freeze is November 22, so plenty of time for changes.

[starsfan65]

Take any model run 2 weeks out with a grain of salt. By tomorrow those same models may have a snowstorm across Austin.

Remember NTX average 1st freeze is November 22, so plenty of time for changes.

GFS is a warm bias

[Iceresistance]

What are they saying about Thanksgiving?

Note the +PNA for Thanksgiving week on the 18z GFS model

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_38.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_38.png

is that good or bad?

Bad thing for snow & cold lovers, the cold gets shoved to the east, -PNA forces it west, a Neutral PNA will shove the cold air to us, (And a Sub-Positive & Sub-Negative PNA would work as well, as it was demonstrated in the February 2021 Extreme Cold & Snow)

[starsfan65]

Note the +PNA for Thanksgiving week on the 18z GFS model

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_38.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_38.png

is that good or bad?

Bad thing for snow & cold lovers, the cold gets shoved to the east, -PNA forces it west, a Neutral PNA will shove the cold air to us, (And a Sub-Positive & Sub-Negative PNA would work as well, as it was demonstrated in the February 2021 Extreme Cold & Snow)

will we still get cold?

[HockeyTx82]

is that good or bad?

Bad thing for snow & cold lovers, the cold gets shoved to the east, -PNA forces it west, a Neutral PNA will shove the cold air to us, (And a Sub-Positive & Sub-Negative PNA would work as well, as it was demonstrated in the February 2021 Extreme Cold & Snow)

will we still get cold?

Winter Cancel. I'll be over in the Spring and Summer threads.

[starsfan65]

Bad thing for snow & cold lovers, the cold gets shoved to the east, -PNA forces it west, a Neutral PNA will shove the cold air to us, (And a Sub-Positive & Sub-Negative PNA would work as well, as it was demonstrated in the February 2021 Extreme Cold & Snow)

will we still get cold?

Winter Cancel. I'll be over in the Spring and Summer threads.

We have 12 days until Thanksgiving. The forecast will change.

[Quixotic]

Just need that ridge to retrograde just a bit.

[HockeyTx82]

will we still get cold?

Winter Cancel. I'll be over in the Spring and Summer threads.

We have 12 days until Thanksgiving. The forecast will change.

Oh I know, just getting my winter cancel for the season out of the way.

[Iceresistance]

is that good or bad?

Bad thing for snow & cold lovers, the cold gets shoved to the east, -PNA forces it west, a Neutral PNA will shove the cold air to us, (And a Sub-Positive & Sub-Negative PNA would work as well, as it was demonstrated in the February 2021 Extreme Cold & Snow)

will we still get cold?

Chilly, but no cold for most of Texas

[Ntxw]

In a surprise twist despite the ups and downs most of the state is running below normal (eastern 2/3rds) for November so far. Compared to the recent mild and warm Novembers this has been a change. The big metros are running -1F to -4F below normal.

One thing the models have converged on. All of them are building some pretty impressive cold air by the end of the coming week over Canada. What happens after that is a big question. Will we get breaking shots of it? Side swiped? The whole thing? Or will it sit up there and wait till December?

One thing seems to be a theme, there isn't a lack of cold in the source region that we're so accustomed to in recent years early in winter over the continent.

[Cpv17]

In a surprise twist despite the ups and downs most of the state is running below normal (eastern 2/3rds) for November so far. Compared to the recent mild and warm Novembers this has been a change. The big metros are running -1F to -4F below normal.

One thing the models have converged on. All of them are building some pretty impressive cold air by the end of the coming week over Canada. What happens after that is a big question. Will we get breaking shots of it? Side swiped? The whole thing? Or will it sit up there and wait till December?

One thing seems to be a theme, there isn't a lack of cold in the source region that we're so accustomed to in recent years early in winter over the continent.

Seems to me like models are suggesting too much of a positive PNA for us to cash in but that’s pretty far out.

[Brent]

The 12z euro is colder and has a big cold outbreak next week... But it's largely focused east of us. If this is valid the cold would peak Tuesday before Thanksgiving then start warming up for Thanksgiving more towards normal but it is the day 10 Euro so use with caution Too early to tell but we need less PNA for sure if we're really gonna get cold

[Ntxw]

In a surprise twist despite the ups and downs most of the state is running below normal (eastern 2/3rds) for November so far. Compared to the recent mild and warm Novembers this has been a change. The big metros are running -1F to -4F below normal.

One thing the models have converged on. All of them are building some pretty impressive cold air by the end of the coming week over Canada. What happens after that is a big question. Will we get breaking shots of it? Side swiped? The whole thing? Or will it sit up there and wait till December?

One thing seems to be a theme, there isn't a lack of cold in the source region that we're so accustomed to in recent years early in winter over the continent.

Seems to me like models are suggesting too much of a positive PNA for us to cash in but that’s pretty far out.

The OPs all over different trough placement and what happens to a big ULL in the southwest/baja region. It's way out there though, it'll change 10x in the next 10 days. But it's good to see cold air around to use.

[Iceresistance]

The 12z euro is colder and has a big cold outbreak next week... But it's largely focused east of us. If this is valid the cold would peak Tuesday before Thanksgiving then start warming up for Thanksgiving more towards normal but it is the day 10 Euro so use with caution Too early to tell but we need less PNA for sure if we're really gonna get cold

https://i.ibb.co/vDvMmk2/ecmwf-T850a-us-10.png

Only 24 hours after that, look what's coming from the NW of the first wave.


https://s8.gifyu.com/images/sfct.conus.png

[Ntxw]

You can see on the 18z GFS the -NAO retrogrades more of west-based block that is more favorable vs mid Atlantic block. But it's just another solution of many until Turkey week.

[Cpv17]

In a surprise twist despite the ups and downs most of the state is running below normal (eastern 2/3rds) for November so far. Compared to the recent mild and warm Novembers this has been a change. The big metros are running -1F to -4F below normal.

One thing the models have converged on. All of them are building some pretty impressive cold air by the end of the coming week over Canada. What happens after that is a big question. Will we get breaking shots of it? Side swiped? The whole thing? Or will it sit up there and wait till December?

One thing seems to be a theme, there isn't a lack of cold in the source region that we're so accustomed to in recent years early in winter over the continent.

Do you have a link to the temperature anomalies?

[Brent]

What a GFS run up here big Thanksgiving storm one thing I'm getting from these models is that any kind of weather is possible for Thanksgiving lol warm and sunny warm and wet cold and dry cold and a storm?

[starsfan65]

What a GFS run up here big Thanksgiving storm one thing I'm getting from these models is that any kind of weather is possible for Thanksgiving lol warm and sunny warm and wet cold and dry cold and a storm?

https://i.ibb.co/18BMfhH/gfs-asnow-scus-50.png

It will not be warm on Thanksgiving.

[Brent]

What a GFS run up here big Thanksgiving storm one thing I'm getting from these models is that any kind of weather is possible for Thanksgiving lol warm and sunny warm and wet cold and dry cold and a storm?

https://i.ibb.co/18BMfhH/gfs-asnow-scus-50.png

It will not be warm on Thanksgiving.

Can't rule anything out yet... Need to keep our expectations in check given it's day 10 if the PNA doesn't cooperate the fun could be east of us and we're seasonal or so

[Ntxw]

West based -NAO and connecting -AO showing up on the ensembles. Chances of a colder Thanksgivings growing. That block has been the persistent theme of the past 12 months.

It's also important to understand what it is you are blocking. That was a key I've been mentioning the past few days, build the cold air first then when you block it, you are working with colder continental air vs maritime.

These are all precursor signs of a pattern that has potential for winter storms moving beyond through December.