Texas Fall 2021

[Ntxw]

Quick update this morning.

There are two camps the GFS (and family) + Canadian which has a not so good Pacific flow. Locks the cold air far North in Alaska.

Then you have the Euro (and family) which puts a loading HP over the Beaufort which sets up cross polar flow and sets up a potential Arctic attack towards the later half of the month.

Two very different outcomes. For the next week or so seasonably cool then seasonably mild rollercoaster. However all of the models start with the Beaufort HP but diverge beyond that.

GFS says no cold, but Euro says cold.

The good news is the Arctic pattern favors cross polar flow and setting shop with the coldest air on our side of the globe. Will we get a good EPO to deliver it?

[starsfan65]

Quick update this morning.

There are two camps the GFS (and family) + Canadian which has a not so good Pacific flow. Locks the cold air far North in Alaska.

Then you have the Euro (and family) which puts a loading HP over the Beaufort which sets up cross polar flow and sets up a potential Arctic attack towards the later half of the month.

Two very different outcomes. For the next week or so seasonably cool then seasonably mild rollercoaster. However all of the models start with the Beaufort HP but diverge beyond that.

GFS says no cold, but Euro says cold.

The good news is the Arctic pattern favors cross polar flow and setting shop with the coldest air on our side of the globe. Will we get a good EPO to deliver it?

what is the forecast for the EPO?

[Cpv17]

Quick update this morning.

There are two camps the GFS (and family) + Canadian which has a not so good Pacific flow. Locks the cold air far North in Alaska.

Then you have the Euro (and family) which puts a loading HP over the Beaufort which sets up cross polar flow and sets up a potential Arctic attack towards the later half of the month.

Two very different outcomes. For the next week or so seasonably cool then seasonably mild rollercoaster. However all of the models start with the Beaufort HP but diverge beyond that.

The end of the 12z Euro and the 240 hr mark on the 12z GFS are actually in pretty good agreement for being 10 days out.

[TheProfessor]

CFS is looking fun for Thanksgiving now and still has what looks to be an active early December. May not see snow reach down into North-Central Texas with the first shot, but it wouldn't surprise me if y'all saw something the first two weeks of December.

[Iceresistance]

CFS is looking fun for Thanksgiving now and still has what looks to be an active early December. May not see snow reach down into North-Central Texas with the first shot, but it wouldn't surprise me if y'all saw something the first two weeks of December.

I do want to mention that one of the runs (6z or 12z CFS?) scared me, 1064 MB High pressure area coming from the Arctic forcing the extreme cold (Extreme for December) into the Central & Southern Plains in Early December, OKC would have highs only in the upper Teens & lows near 0, & there is a good amount of snow as well.

That setup is EXACTLY like what happened in February 2021.

[Cpv17]

CFS is looking fun for Thanksgiving now and still has what looks to be an active early December. May not see snow reach down into North-Central Texas with the first shot, but it wouldn't surprise me if y'all saw something the first two weeks of December.

I do want to mention that one of the runs (6z or 12z CFS?) scared me, 1064 MB High pressure area coming from the Arctic forcing the extreme cold (Extreme for December) into the Central & Southern Plains in Early December, OKC would have highs only in the upper Teens & lows near 0, & there is a good amount of snow as well.

That setup is EXACTLY like what happened in February 2021.

We just need some more consistency from the models. One run it looks promising, the next run takes it away. Need to get something consistently showing up inside 10 days.

[TheProfessor]

CFS is looking fun for Thanksgiving now and still has what looks to be an active early December. May not see snow reach down into North-Central Texas with the first shot, but it wouldn't surprise me if y'all saw something the first two weeks of December.

I do want to mention that one of the runs (6z or 12z CFS?) scared me, 1064 MB High pressure area coming from the Arctic forcing the extreme cold (Extreme for December) into the Central & Southern Plains in Early December, OKC would have highs only in the upper Teens & lows near 0, & there is a good amount of snow as well.

That setup is EXACTLY like what happened in February 2021.

We just need some more consistency from the models. One run it looks promising, the next run takes it away. Need to get something consistently showing up inside 10 days.

The CFS isn't the model to look at for something within 10 days, resolution is way too low and you're better off looking at the main global deterministic models. What the CFS is good at is hinting at patterns in the long range. For the most part it's been pretty consistent with showing winter mischief at the beginning of December. At least one run a day for the last week or so has shown something. The key is the general signal of cold air and a storm, you won't see run to run consistency with similar low tracks on the CFS, as I said before the resolution is too low. The signal looks good though.

[Iceresistance]

Freeze Watch for basically the entire state of Oklahoma for Tonight

[gboudx]

Hi folks. Logged in to share this video from POW Weather. I like this guy, he explains things well, always has updated videos and is enthusiastic, but not prone to sensationalism. The video discusses what others here have brought up regarding Thanksgiving week. The most relevant for T-giving weeks starts around the 8:00 mark if you don't want to watch the entire thing.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/Nb6O03dvfyo[/youtube]

[Iceresistance]

Freeze Warning for the entire state tonight, Growing Season is going to end.

[Brent]

18z GFS was very close here two days before Thanksgiving big snowstorm across Missouri. That timeframe keeps showing signs on and off with some kind of potential at least for a cold snap

[starsfan65]

18z GFS was very close here two days before Thanksgiving big snowstorm across Missouri. That timeframe keeps showing signs on and off with some kind of potential at least for a cold snap

Hopefully it will be a cold Thanksgivng week.

[Iceresistance]

Solid first freeze of the year, 30°F

OKC fell to 29°F

[chaser1]

Then came the GFS 12Z "choke-run" today LOL. Just like you all in the Southern Plains, many here in Florida have been anticipating some nice chilly Thanksgiving time temps as well. It's just one model run but it suddenly looks like we all just got robbed

[Iceresistance]

Then came the GFS 12Z "choke-run" today LOL. Just like you all in the Southern Plains, many here in Florida have been anticipating some nice chilly Thanksgiving time temps as well. It's just one model run but it suddenly looks like we all just got robbed

It's the PNA that would not comply with us.

[Iceresistance]

The CFS model is consistently hinting an active Winter Pattern for December, just like what happened in December 2020

[Yukon Cornelius]

31 here this morning for the first freeze of the season. Those tornado warned storms that rolled through the Dean/Petrolia area a few days ago were INTENSE. Here a pic that one of the local chasers took and what appears to be a possible tornado.

[starsfan65]

Then came the GFS 12Z "choke-run" today LOL. Just like you all in the Southern Plains, many here in Florida have been anticipating some nice chilly Thanksgiving time temps as well. It's just one model run but it suddenly looks like we all just got robbed

It's the PNA that would not comply with us.

What are they saying about Thanksgiving?

[Iceresistance]

Then came the GFS 12Z "choke-run" today LOL. Just like you all in the Southern Plains, many here in Florida have been anticipating some nice chilly Thanksgiving time temps as well. It's just one model run but it suddenly looks like we all just got robbed

It's the PNA that would not comply with us.

What are they saying about Thanksgiving?

Note the +PNA for Thanksgiving week on the 18z GFS model


https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_38.png

[starsfan65]

It's the PNA that would not comply with us.

What are they saying about Thanksgiving?

Note the +PNA for Thanksgiving week on the 18z GFS model

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_38.png
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/gfs_z500a_namer_38.png

is that good or bad?